INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ "Announced US job cuts fell 37% in September vs the previous month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm. Year to date, however, the number of announced cuts is the highest since 2020." โ€œRight now, weโ€™re dealing with a stagnatingโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ADP's new weekly release of their preliminary U.S. employment estimate shows an average gain of 14,250 private-sector jobs in the four weeks ending Oct. 11, 2025.

"For nearly two decades we have provided our valuable labor market data to the public at no cost through the ADP National Employment Report. ADP's near real-time employment data, released weekly, will now provide an even clearer picture of the labor market at this critical time for the economy," said Dr. Nela Richardson, chief economist, ADP.


โณ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”ฉ
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INTELRUNNER
The implied odds of a resumption in discontinued government by then (shudder) stand at 80%.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Both parties are taking blame for the government shutdownโ€”specifically Trump & Schumer.

All of this over paying for all of the healthcare of illegal residents of America.

Are they just trying to buy 3 generations of votes again? Or do they know denying all of the benefits (over a third of them just collect those) will cause much of their antidemocratic project in social & political engineering to self-deport?

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Beef prices have continued their persistant ascent as the cattle cycle reaches another lower trough. We need a lot more heads. ๐Ÿฅฉ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿฅฉ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Democratic Party made war on our meat industries during the entire Biden Administration.

So far, Trump has done little to help. There are even still nonsense regulations about methane in effect. But it's not restricted to climate; it's the same game as energy: drum up an environmental pretext and grind the industry to a halt through prohibitive cost.

As a result, beef prices are making new highs again...sure does seem to be happening all over the world too.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
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INTELRUNNER
Argentina prefers the United States (41%) and China is the runner-up (25%).
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Javier Milei's La Libertad Avanza party won 40.7% in Sunday's election, securing stronger legislative representation with which to pursue Milei's program, and highlighting the wisdom of his opponents in holding their local elections ahead of these (to avoid a wider participation).

LA has increased its deputies from 37 to 101 and senators from 6 to 20. Bitter opponents who had no reservations about fraternizing with China to boost their electoral standing (including allowing the overfishing of Argentine waters) are complaining about Bessent's swap line.

Interestingly, lots of U.S. critics of D.C.'s asinine foreign policy are complaining, despite many of them insisting America should be competing with China as China competes, with handouts, development, and the like.

Very interesting...more Argentina content:
โ€ข Milei's Argentina leads LatAm growth forecasts [8/19]
โ€ข LatAm geopolitical loyalties [7/23]
โ€ข The plummeting inflation rates [7/14]
โ€ข The plummeting child poverty rates [7/14]
โ€ข Argentina's inflation miracle [5/13]

๐Ÿ—ณ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ—ณ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช With the Hungarian mix out of the way (dominant nuclear, rising solar), let's look at the electricity inputs in Germany from 2022-2025 (YoY change ending each October before the cold season).
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Natural gas is still four times more expensive in Europe than it is in America.

Such is life when you flip your cheap energy supplier the bird and have to rely on one of the following: (1) heavily demanded Middle Eastern sources, (2) super expensive American LNG, or (3) buying that same cheap Russian gas at a premium from Turkey.

What are they thinking? The financial pundits will call them stupid, but you aren't that naรฏve, are you?

๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘ฉโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆโ€๐Ÿ‘ฆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Biotechnology ETF is up 35.5% since its low just after Liberation Day (same day, April 9th) and a golden cross on the daily seems imminent here as well.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Biotechnology ETF is up 15.67% against $SPY since this post. $XBI is up 23.51% generally over the period.

It broke out of its range a month ago and will likely continue outperforming for a bit as the healthcare sector swings into gear.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ The Euro area's PMIs. Services is looking alright; manufacturing seems to be in contraction.

I will never understand not putting a 50-line on a diffusion index...

๐Ÿญ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿญ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Google ($GOOGL) has slid to 48% of search ad revenue (hallelujah), falling from a 60% share as recently as 2018.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ It's the first time Alphabet Inc.'s average price target is under the price of $GOOGL in the last ten years...

๐Ÿ” CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ If you take the M2 money supply as a proxy for inflation, the Nasdaq 100 is now 14.83% higher than the Dotcom peak.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Nasdaq 100 ($NDX) is also smacking its head on the top of the channel it's been bound in since the post-Liberation Day pump.

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Taking a more long-term view, the S&P 500 is breaking through a bit of historical resistance.

In this case we speak of the dynamic resistance running from the 1929 Roaring Twenties peak to the 2001 Dotcom peak...

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ 8% of Americans say they participated in a No Kings protest on October 18

Question: Did you participate in the No Kings protest on October 18? (% who say "yes")

By the way, it's YouGov, so as always๐Ÿง‚.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ America's Richest & Poorest States vs G7 Countries
(GDP per capita)


Mississippi is hot on Germany's ass, and not far off Canada either.

๐Ÿ’ซ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ’ซ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ This shit is retarded. Nvidia's ($NVDA) market cap exceeds the combined market cap of the American and Canadian banking industries. It's retarded, man. Snap out of it. It's retarded. ๐Ÿ“ฑ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ฑ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Nvidia's ($NVDA) market cap exceeds $5 trillion now.

Sounds reasonable.

No way this ends poorly.

โš™๏ธ CHART WATCH โš™๏ธ
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INTELRUNNER
As a result, beef prices are making new highs again.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Where Americans Spend the Most & Least on Groceries (By % of Income)

The lower & more pink the number, the more spent on groceries, and vice versa the higher & more yellow the number.

๐Ÿ›‘Detroit households spend the largest share of their income on groceries, at nearly 4% of median monthly earnings.

๐Ÿ›‘California cities dominate the list of places where groceries take up the smallest share of income.

๐Ÿ›’ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ›’
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Google ($GOOGL) has slid to 48% of search ad revenue (hallelujah), falling from a 60% share as recently as 2018. Amazon ($AMZN), as low as 10% in 2018, has risen to a 24% share today. Microsoft ($MSFT) is up a few percentage points over this period, reachingโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Amazon ($AMZN) jumps 10% in after hours trading due to better than expected earnings.

Almost all of the upside in the stock market occurs after hours. Or before hours. Something worth remembering...

๐Ÿ“ฑ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ฑ
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INTELRUNNER
Weโ€™ve got fresh polling on the New York mayoral race, courtesy of Tulchin Researchโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ New York City Mayoral Prediction Markets

The results are fairly consistent across markets: Mamdani has an 88-90% chance of winning the mayoral election in NYC.

This will be accomplished on the strength of his 90%+ odds in Brooklyn, Manhattan, and Queens. The Bronx is more of a toss-up; Staten Island is, of course, firmly Cuomo's territory.

This has never really been in doubt so long as the race stayed multiple choice, and Cuomo's campaign has done a lot to render a Sliwa dropout irrelevant (which was not the case two months ago).

It seems possible that Cuomo may not even match his own strength in the Democratic primary, which is remarkable.

News from Underground Coverage
โ€ข You Don't Mess With The Zohran - Part 1, June 26th
โ€ข You Don't Mess With The Zohran - Part 2, October 25th

๐Ÿ—ฝ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ—ฝ
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