INTELRUNNER – Telegram

INTELRUNNER

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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally 🇺🇸 but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...

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The Approval-Disapproval Ratings of the government of the United Kingdom

14% approve of Two-Tier Kier. 69% do not appreciate the job the rent boy enthusiast has been doing. 17% are confused (15-20% are always confused; they can still vote, and by all appearances, do).

By the way, it's YouGov, so 🧂. It could be even worse for them...

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CHART WATCH

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🤑 Whale selling pressure has eased significantly in the Bitcoin ($BTC) markets of late... 🐋 CHART WATCH 🐋

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WHALE WARS: New Whales (Short-Term Holders) vs. Old Whales (Long-Term Holders)

With 97% of circulating supply in profit, long-term holders have been realizing gains. Generally this represents the final phase of a Bitcoin bull market, but this cycle has been a bit different.

Much of this selling pressure is being absorbed by new phenomena in the market: the boon in stablecoins produced by the Trump Administration, the rapidly increasing by large institutional investors, and, of course, the potent inflows from a whole spate of exchange-traded funds ($IBIT in particular) premised on spot Bitcoin holdings.

Will we end up near the top soon anyway? Or is this a new, slower, and more stable type of cycle?

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CHART WATCH

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9 views18:40

The Dallas Cowboys are still the most valuable football team in America…

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You think it would be fair to say online gambling saved the NFL?

The left axis tracks NFL TV ratings year-to-year, and the right axis tracks the number of states that had legalized online gambling by that year.

After peaking in 2015, the NFL shed millions of viewers. In 2018, the Supreme Court tossed the prohibition, launching the trend. 45 states now allow the one-time illegal vice (except when the State does it with rip-off lotteries—that's kosher), and NFL ratings topped their 2015 high in 2024.

I think it's safe to answer "yes."

🏈 CHART WATCH 🏈

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6 views20:58

🇺🇸 Usage of the names for girls & boys most in sync in each decade.

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CHART WATCH

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🇺🇸 Rating grocery store brands on price/value over several periods over the past year… 📊 CHART WATCH 📊

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The Biggest Grocery Store in Every State in the Union

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CHART WATCH

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5 views21:46

🌏 Asia’s Billion-Dollar Power Map These are the Asian representatives in the global top 150 listed public companies… The top Japanese company is Toyota Motor (#8 overall). In South Korea, it’s Samsung (#4) of course. The biggest in India is Reliance Industries…

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🇺🇸 Strong projected GDP growth in Taiwan, largely downstream of AI capital expenditures.

Resilient U.S. demand and a firmer Asian tech trade...

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CHART WATCH

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4 views22:22

🇺🇸 This shit is retarded.

Nvidia's ($NVDA) market cap exceeds the combined market cap of the American and Canadian banking industries.

It's retarded, man. Snap out of it.

It's retarded.

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7 viewsedited 18:14

🇮🇳 Global Equity Forward P/E

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Global stock market performance over the past quarter century according to the compounded annual growth rate of the primary national index of each country:

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🇮🇳 India's Nifty 50 (+10.1%)

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🇰🇷 South Korea's KOSPI (+7.0%)

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🇺🇸 America's S&P 500, 🇷🇺 Russia's IMOEX, 🇩🇪 Germany's DAX (+6.4%)

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CHART WATCH

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11 views01:23

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America's Fastest Shrinking Jobs

The United States will lose 314,000 cashier jobs over the next decade, along with brutal cuts to bank tellers & data entry, among many other positions.

This is great news because it's great to check yourself out at the store. That's definitely an advancement in productivity...

It goes like this: you do your own shit, and now the company doesn't have to pay anyone to tend to you.

BOOM!

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PROFIT! What a value add.

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🇺🇸 Excellent chart from Goldman Sachs (I knew they could do it) illustrating the shifting probabilities over time in the Kalshi prediction markets regarding the government shutdown ending by the end of the month.

The implied odds of a resumption in discontinued government by then (shudder) stand at 80%.

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CHART WATCH

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5 views11:13

🇺🇸 We're still trapped in Trump's Tariff Candle...

Woe is us. $SPX needs fresh highs, or woe unto us.

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CHART WATCH

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5 views13:47

The platforms are listed with the percentage of American adults using them as regular news sources in 2020 vs. 2025.

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Share of total television usage in America in Sep. 2025, by type.

Streaming is beating broadcast & cable combined ever so slightly, and so YouTube ($GOOGL) wins the day at 12.6%, with Netflix ($NFLX) right behind, second in usage with 8.3%.

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5 views18:50

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The Consumer Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month for September. This is a slightly cool reading as an increase of 0.4% was expected.

Year-over-year, CPI is up 3.0%, which is less than expected (3.1%) but more than in August's print (2.9%). A three-point increase matches January's print, which is now tied for the highest in over a year.

There are some signs that suggest this is a trend that may persist.

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15 views00:43

🇺🇸 The Consumer Price Index was up 0.3% month-over-month for September. This is a slightly cool reading as an increase of 0.4% was expected. Year-over-year, CPI is up 3.0%, which is less than expected (3.1%) but more than in August's print (2.9%). A three…

🇺🇸 Most of the pump in CPI came down to the energy component, which largely came down to gasoline. (This means petrol, but you guys should just get with the program already.)

Gasoline was up 4.1% in September, which drove the entire energy index upward 1.5% despite natural gas & electricity falling. However, now that oil has fallen off, it's likely energy pulls back next time.

⛽️ CHART WATCH ⛽️

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8 views02:41

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The regional banks were having a bad time again. Serious issues of fraud in this case.

Here are two important ones: $ZION and $WAL. $KBWB bounced on Friday and looks good for a bit more (not even remotely financial advice).

Is this a sign of greater instability?

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CHART WATCH

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6 views12:12

The Mag 7 Cleared $19 Trillion in Total Market Cap

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Yesterday, $MAGS jumped 0.7% to break out to new highs.

This is the Magnificent 7 Index and I have very limited confidence in this breakout. Let's see how long it takes to run out of steam, but it feels things are shifting the other way.

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PLUS: Net income growth of MAG 7 continues to decline since the end of 2023.

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CHART WATCH

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3 viewsedited 19:11

🇺🇸 53 Years of Wal-Mart ($WMT) vs. Target ($TGT).

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Target ($TGT) is having a bad experience with these inflationary times. It's fallen 64.6% in almost 4 years.

Walmart ($WMT) and stores like Dollar Tree ($DLTR) & Dollar General ($DG)—the latter of which gave me a fine trade earlier this year—are eating into Target's market share.

If you're buying crap and essentials, may as well do so cheaply. The dollar stores are no longer dollar stores, however, and they've migrated much further from that experience in recent years with modernization programs like "Dollar Tree 3.0."

Target's game is troubled. They need to adjust. The upcoming CEO, the current CFO Michael Fiddle, seems to understand this, but if we get another inflationary swing...look out.

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🇺🇸 Excellent chart from Goldman Sachs (I knew they could do it) illustrating the shifting probabilities over time in the Kalshi prediction markets regarding the government shutdown ending by the end of the month. The implied odds of a resumption in discontinued…

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64% of Kalshi traders expect the Supreme Court to rule against Trump's tariffs. It has ranged between 61 and 67 percent this week.

I expect them to allow him a few exceptions here and there where they'll say he applied the appropriately, but for the most part, power over trade will be returned to Congress, who will get straight back to working to destroy the middle class forever for their masters.

Congress is what America needs to fix. By fix, I mean to say almost everyone there now shouldn't be there.

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13 views12:35

🇺🇸 'Murica.

Fuck yeah.

Winnin' 34% of all Nobel Prizes.

Amerrrrica—fuck yeah.

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CHART WATCH

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