🇺🇸 A fresh update on the current air & naval assets of the United States Southern Command...

They're saying it's about drugs & "noninternational," but they're definitely looking to strike within Venezuela, so...come on.

Are they really going to embark on this right when Israel is preparing for Iran? Or is there some relation? Maybe politically? God only knows.

🚢🚢 CHART WATCH 🚢🚢

🇩🇪 With the Hungarian mix out of the way (dominant nuclear, rising solar), let's look at the electricity inputs in Germany from 2022-2025 (YoY change ending each October before the cold season).

To make a long story short, the Germans had 12.5% nuclear in 2021. You can see them abandon it over the next 3 years, and embrace more wind, which ended up working out as well as it did the UK.

The wind dropped the ball & neglected to blow this year. The non-Russian natural gas is proved quite expensive as a replacement. So where have Germans turned for their latest shortfall in energy?

Oh, you know. COAL.

☄️ CHART WATCH ☄️

🌍 The total change in electricity generation for the G7 in 2024 vs. 2010:

🔽7️⃣🇬🇧 -25.1% United Kingdom
🔽6️⃣🇩🇪 -20.3% Germany

🔽5️⃣🇯🇵 -12.8% Japan
🔽4️⃣🇮🇹 -9.7% Italy

⏹3️⃣🇫🇷 -0.5% France
🔼2️⃣🇨🇦 +3.0% Canada
🔼1️⃣🇺🇸 +5.2% United States of America

It's impossible to conceive of a benign reason London & Berlin are doing this.

⚡️ CHART WATCH ⚡️

🇺🇸 The non-profitable tech index is now up 104.3% since its low around Liberation Day…

By comparison, the S&P 500 ($SPY) is up 36% over the roughly two-quarter period.

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 Well, this explains a lot...

Can I just say off top that you shouldn't be using any of these as a primary news source? The platforms are listed with the percentage of American adults using them as regular news sources in 2020 vs. 2025. The 5-year growth rates in share are parenthetically noted:

1️⃣ 😎 Facebook 38% (+5.5%)
2️⃣ 😎 YouTube 35% (+52.2%)
3️⃣ 😎 Instagram 20% (+81.8%)
4️⃣ 😎 TikTok 20% (+567%!)
5️⃣ 😎 X (Twitter) 12% (-20%)

That will likely be peak Facebook. TikTok's influence grew by leaps & bounds in this period, thus the need to ban it (we can't have foreigners controlling our media, or it might break the oligopoly of those other foreigners). X/Twitter has always been low but they have the movers & shakers over there (for now)...

Most of what you need to know won't make it into your news feed, and that's entirely leaving aside the fact that social media is now a full-fledged battleground for hearts & minds filled with bad faith operatives, fake virality, phony subscribers, bot farm astroturfing, manipulative contractors, military units manning super accounts—I won't belabor it.

Don't let them consign you to their mental prison, any of them. And check out Nostr.

😎 CHART WATCH 😎

🇺🇸🇯🇵🇨🇳🇪🇺 Global Composite PMIs Suffer September Setback

The standard and Poor’s composite Global PMIs for September showed broad weakness in the month compared to August. Only 7 reporters in the table showed improvement month-to-month while 12 showed deterioration.

The September data are bit disconcerting. But then the changes in the month are generally small. The average and median data for this group of countries shows average and median PMI values at 50 or 51. Both approaches are close to showing no or small output changes overall. While there have been swings in national data since 2023, there has been little trending at all as economic output has been mostly weak and showing little acceleration or deceleration except for specific countries over very short periods.

Prognosis? More sideways, of course. Welcome to the Great Stagnation...

📊 CHART WATCH 📊

🇺🇸 31 new highs in the S&P 500 ($SPX) so far this year...

That's the 20th most since 1957, and there's still a whole final quarter.

🌐 CHART WATCH 🌐

🇯🇵 The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has decided upon a conservative stalwart for next Prime Minister of Japan in former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi over the more neoliberal Shinjiro Koizumi.

Takaichi was once a close ally of Shinzo Abe; Koizumi serves as Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and is more likely to bring up diversity, tolerance, and other noxious claptrap. A shift in votes in the run-off round caused this sudden & dramatic upset in the betting markets. So what gives?

There is little doubt the growing popularity of Sanseitō (a 5-year-old party committed to Japanese nationalism, political conservatism, right-wing populism, and resistance to mass immigration) has in some way forced this outcome.

Takaichi, 64, a staunch conservative and vocal China hawk, defeated her moderate rival Shinjiro Koizumi by 185 votes to 156 in a runoff at LDP headquarters in Tokyo. The victory makes her Japan’s first female party president and, almost certainly, its first female prime minister since the LDP remains the largest bloc in parliament and opposition parties are too fragmented to mount a united challenge.

The confirmation vote will be in October.

🗳 CHART WATCH 🗳

🇺🇸 "Announced US job cuts fell 37% in September vs the previous month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm. Year to date, however, the number of announced cuts is the highest since 2020."

“Right now, we’re dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases, and a transformative new technology. With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the job market in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring,” said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at the firm."

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 Trump approval rating falls to 41 percent from 42 in the latest Reuters-Ipsos poll.

Grain of salt. It is the latest Reuters-Ipsos poll, after all...

📈 CHART WATCH 📉

🇺🇸 More interestingly, this Reuters-Ipsos survey included polling on party preferences on a slew of issues.

Republicans are most trusted on crime (+20), immigration (+18), foreign conflicts (+12), and the economy (+10). Democrats are most trusted on the environment (+14), women's rights (+13), and healthcare (+9).

In the middle, we have a hodgepodge. Democrats are slightly up on "respect for democracy" (+2) while the GOP secured minor wins in corruption (+6), gun control (+4), and "political extremism" (+4).

Again, remember. It's Reuters-Ipsos. Caution is warranted.

📈 CHART WATCH 📉