INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ European Perception of Leaders' Respect for Democracy Europeans were asked: to what extent do you consider these leaders to respect democratic principles? Note: Two of these men were re-elected last year. The other has not faced election since 2019, inโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Average Daily & Total September Advance of the Russian Armed Forces

September saw the Russians acquire 492.01 kmยฒ for an average of 16.4 kmยฒ/day. This is 29.4% quicker than the pace in August, and much more like the speed of early summer.

In fact, it's the fourth most successful month of the entire Russian offensive, and you have to go back to the third most successful (May 2025) to find a higher daily average (17.75 kmยฒ/day). The average gain per day for the whole of the two-year offensive stands at 9.66 kmยฒ/day, so they took 70% more land per day than normal last month.

Almost a third of this territory was taken in the Kremennaya-Krasny Liman direction, and a little over a fifth was taken in that most successful of directions for the Russians, Avdiivka-Krasnoarmeysk. They actually gave up 7.9 square kilometers in Sumy, which is the most they've pulled back in some time.

The latest in-depth data covers 9/23โ€“9/26. The Russian Armed Forces claimed a total area of 100.37 kmยฒ during this interval. This is an average of +25.1 kmยฒ/day, which is the highest per day average since the first week of June. It's 53% faster than the already above average speed in September overall.

In other words, no matter how you split the timeframes, things are briskly snowballing in the last days of summer in eastern Ukraine...

๐Ÿ”น CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Will there be a government shut down by October 1st? The denizens of Polymarket think there's a 93% chance of that (screaming up from 76% this morning).
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Polymarket was a little late to the party, I thought. The writing was on the wall. I understand the skepticism; the Uniparty can do trillions in damage at 2AM on a whim. It wouldn't be the first time. It wouldn't be the last.

Now they're betting on how long the shutdown lasts. 10-29 days has broken out to a decisive lead. It has appeared 4-9 days was going to give it a chase, but the Swamp just looks too swampy, and both sides have too much to gain from a couple weeks of this.

The Dems will run on it like they always do and hope Trump cuts something they can misleadingly & relentlessly advertise about all next year. The Congressional GOP will attempt to rein this in when it actually starts to affect the Leviathan, God forbid.

I hope this Russ Vought cat gets a free hand to balance like it's 1999...

๐ŸŽฑ CHART WATCH ๐ŸŽฑ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ A lot of U.S. naval assets turning up in and around the Caribbean. Are they for the cartels? Or the Venezuelans? ๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšข CHART WATCH ๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšข
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ A fresh update on the current air & naval assets of the United States Southern Command...

They're saying it's about drugs & "noninternational," but they're definitely looking to strike within Venezuela, so...come on.

Are they really going to embark on this right when Israel is preparing for Iran? Or is there some relation? Maybe politically? God only knows.

๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšข CHART WATCH ๐Ÿšข๐Ÿšข
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๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡บ Share of Hungary's electricity generation by source.
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช With the Hungarian mix out of the way (dominant nuclear, rising solar), let's look at the electricity inputs in Germany from 2022-2025 (YoY change ending each October before the cold season).

To make a long story short, the Germans had 12.5% nuclear in 2021. You can see them abandon it over the next 3 years, and embrace more wind, which ended up working out as well as it did the UK.

The wind dropped the ball & neglected to blow this year. The non-Russian natural gas is proved quite expensive as a replacement. So where have Germans turned for their latest shortfall in energy?

Oh, you know. COAL.

โ˜„๏ธ CHART WATCH โ˜„๏ธ
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With Hungarian mix out of the way (dominant nuclear, rising solar), let's look at the electricity inputs in Germany from 2022-2025
๐ŸŒ The total change in electricity generation for the G7 in 2024 vs. 2010:

๐Ÿ”ฝ7๏ธโƒฃ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง -25.1% United Kingdom
๐Ÿ”ฝ6๏ธโƒฃ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช -20.3% Germany

๐Ÿ”ฝ5๏ธโƒฃ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต -12.8% Japan
๐Ÿ”ฝ4๏ธโƒฃ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น -9.7% Italy

โน3๏ธโƒฃ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท -0.5% France
๐Ÿ”ผ2๏ธโƒฃ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ +3.0% Canada
๐Ÿ”ผ1๏ธโƒฃ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ +5.2% United States of America

It's impossible to conceive of a benign reason London & Berlin are doing this.

โšก๏ธ CHART WATCH โšก๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Goldman Sachโ€™s non-profitable tech index is up 66% since its low around Liberation Dayโ€ฆ ๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The non-profitable tech index is now up 104.3% since its low around Liberation Dayโ€ฆ

By comparison, the S&P 500 ($SPY) is up 36% over the roughly two-quarter period.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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The S&P Metals & Mining ETF has cleared the first major historical resistance from the 2011 high.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The S&P Metals & Mining ETF has cleared the second major historical resistance from the old 2008 all-time-high.

All that remains is the clear blue sky of price discovery and rocket fuel that is currency debasement. Mining represents 3 of Bank of America's top 4 investment themes of 2025 (gold, uranium, and rare earths).

$XME is up 108% since Liberation Day and almost 20% of that came since the post in August about breaking the 2011 high.

๐Ÿ”ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ TikTok's $14 billion sale in perspective.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Well, this explains a lot...

Can I just say off top that you shouldn't be using any of these as a primary news source? The platforms are listed with the percentage of American adults using them as regular news sources in 2020 vs. 2025. The 5-year growth rates in share are parenthetically noted:

1๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ˜Ž Facebook 38% (+5.5%)
2๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ˜Ž YouTube 35% (+52.2%)
3๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ˜Ž Instagram 20% (+81.8%)
4๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ˜Ž TikTok 20% (+567%!)
5๏ธโƒฃ ๐Ÿ˜Ž X (Twitter) 12% (-20%)

That will likely be peak Facebook. TikTok's influence grew by leaps & bounds in this period, thus the need to ban it (we can't have foreigners controlling our media, or it might break the oligopoly of those other foreigners). X/Twitter has always been low but they have the movers & shakers over there (for now)...

Most of what you need to know won't make it into your news feed, and that's entirely leaving aside the fact that social media is now a full-fledged battleground for hearts & minds filled with bad faith operatives, fake virality, phony subscribers, bot farm astroturfing, manipulative contractors, military units manning super accountsโ€”I won't belabor it.

Don't let them consign you to their mental prison, any of them. And check out Nostr.

๐Ÿ˜Ž CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ˜Ž
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INTELRUNNER
In the the Eurozone, Spain is way out in front of the other large economies.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ Global Composite PMIs Suffer September Setback

The standard and Poorโ€™s composite Global PMIs for September showed broad weakness in the month compared to August. Only 7 reporters in the table showed improvement month-to-month while 12 showed deterioration.


The September data are bit disconcerting. But then the changes in the month are generally small. The average and median data for this group of countries shows average and median PMI values at 50 or 51. Both approaches are close to showing no or small output changes overall. While there have been swings in national data since 2023, there has been little trending at all as economic output has been mostly weak and showing little acceleration or deceleration except for specific countries over very short periods.


Prognosis? More sideways, of course. Welcome to the Great Stagnation...

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Quick $XLV update.

The healthcare sector was up 5.7% this past week against the broader market. As far as I can tell, that's the best week for $XLV/$SPY since mid-2008.

$XLV has put together 6 straight days of green for a 6-day appreciation of 7.16%.

โค๏ธ CHART WATCH โค๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Let's check in on $IYT.

The iShares U.S. Transportation ETF is back at horizontal resistance again. (It's been trying to break upward out of this ascending triangle for 4+ years now.

That said, this is optimal seasonality for $ITF. Transportation tends to close out the year with a run. And the ratio of this sector ETF to the S&P 500 ($IYT/$SPY) is scraping new lows.

How long can it last? Or moreover, has its time come?

โ„๏ธโ„๏ธโ„๏ธ CHART WATCH โ„๏ธโ„๏ธโ„๏ธ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Fresh polling (this time from YouGov) of the German public taken September 12th-15th has Alternative for Deutschland taking the lead away from the current largest party, CDU/CSUโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has decided upon a conservative stalwart for next Prime Minister of Japan in former Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi over the more neoliberal Shinjiro Koizumi.

Takaichi was once a close ally of Shinzo Abe; Koizumi serves as Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries and is more likely to bring up diversity, tolerance, and other noxious claptrap. A shift in votes in the run-off round caused this sudden & dramatic upset in the betting markets. So what gives?

There is little doubt the growing popularity of Sanseitล (a 5-year-old party committed to Japanese nationalism, political conservatism, right-wing populism, and resistance to mass immigration) has in some way forced this outcome.

Takaichi, 64, a staunch conservative and vocal China hawk, defeated her moderate rival Shinjiro Koizumi by 185 votes to 156 in a runoff at LDP headquarters in Tokyo. The victory makes her Japanโ€™s first female party president and, almost certainly, its first female prime minister since the LDP remains the largest bloc in parliament and opposition parties are too fragmented to mount a united challenge.


The confirmation vote will be in October.

๐Ÿ—ณ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ—ณ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ "Announced US job cuts fell 37% in September vs the previous month, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, an outplacement firm. Year to date, however, the number of announced cuts is the highest since 2020."

โ€œRight now, weโ€™re dealing with a stagnating labor market, cost increases, and a transformative new technology. With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the job market in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring,โ€ said Andy Challenger, senior vice president at the firm."

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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