INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Global Gold Reserves: the United States of America vs. the World After the beginning of the end kicked off in 2008, many central banks (particularly in developing & emerging economies) began buying gold hand over fist, correctly anticipating devaluationโ€ฆ
๐ŸŒ The asset mix among the populations of major countries (and the U.K. for whatever reason) has some variation.

The Indians & to a lesser extent the Japanese are wisely stacking more gold. The United States is far too exposed to financial assets, and China is (effectively de jure) too exposed to real estate.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Real Estate 50%, Gold 14%, Financial Assets 22%, Others 14%

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Real Estate 70%, Gold 2%, Financial Assets 22%, Others 6%

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Real Estate 34%, Gold 1%, Financial Assets 54%, Others 11%

๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Real Estate 40%, Gold 5%, Financial Assets 40%, Others 15%

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Real Estate 45%, Gold 3%, Financial Assets 40%, Others 12%

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Goldman Sachโ€™s non-profitable tech index is up 66% since its low around Liberation Dayโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ If the Tech-to-S&P 500 ratio ($XLK/$SPY) breaks out from its Dotcom highs (which it's been bobbing around for the past year & a half), then look out...

๐Ÿ˜€ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ˜€
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๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Government debt (lhs, % of GDP), serving costs thereof (rhs, %), and the rate of inflation (rhs, %) in two of the worldโ€™s most prominent developed economies, Japan & Germany. You donโ€™t have to grow to maintain a welfare state, but you may have to depreciateโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Speaking of major index breakouts, the Nikkei 225 is up 12 & 11 percent in the 2nd & 3rd quarters of this year.

That's been enough to produce a breakout from the old all-time-high levels established in 1989. It started pushing resistance in February of last year, and by June of this year, it had broken it.

It's been nothing but up since...

๐Ÿ•ฏ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ•ฏ
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Facebook remains the leading social media for news
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ TikTok's $14 billion sale in perspective. It's most similar to Snapchat, which caters to a similar demographic.

Of course, Twitter & Reddit were obscenely overpriced, but both were also (ostensibly) quasi-government projects, so I'm sure a full account of the relevant facts would explain those valuations.

H
ere's Harrison Berger on the impetus for the TikTok sale:

And as independent journalists Lee Fang and Jack Poulson reported last year, TikTok has forged a content moderation partnership with CyberWellโ€”an NGO closely linked to the Israeli government and staffed by Israeli spiesโ€”whose chief executive publicly boasts about the foreign lobbyโ€™s successful campaigns to suppress the free speech of Americans and restrict the information they can receive not just on TikTok but across โ€œall major social media platforms.โ€

The acquisition of TikTok by Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz is therefore not simply a reshuffling of corporate control, but the latest step to consolidate a foreign governmentโ€™s censorship regime in America. The appโ€™s new owners openly display their affection for, and often loyalty toward, Israel. 


Well that sounds fun.

๐ŸŽต CHART WATCH ๐ŸŽต
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ How those 2028 Polymarket odds have moved since mid-summer. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Will there be a government shut down by October 1st? The denizens of Polymarket think there's a 93% chance of that (screaming up from 76% this morning).

Top picture is the past month of trading in this market. The past week and today are on the bottom. More on this later...

๐Ÿ”ฎ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”ฎ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Beef prices have continued their persistant ascent as the cattle cycle reaches another lower trough. We need a lot more heads. ๐Ÿฅฉ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿฅฉ
๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Whatever could be driving this permanent global explosion in beef prices?

An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in South Africa, reportedly.

๐Ÿ„ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ„
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Walmart operates 4600 stores in the U.S. (5200 including Samโ€™s Clubs) and 10K globally for 270 million total customers each week.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Walmart is the largest private employer in 21 of the 50 United States of America.

There are 1.5 million American Walmart employees.

...why do so many people work at Denver International?

๐Ÿ›’ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ’ณ
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Meta may be deluded once again, but if so, this time so are the investorsโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ The Digital Market Cap Race

4๏ธโƒฃ Alibaba Group - $392 Billion
3๏ธโƒฃ Tencent Holdings - $757 Billion
2๏ธโƒฃ Meta Platforms - $1,881 Billion
๐Ÿ‘‘ Amazon - $2,327 Billion

๐Ÿ“ฑ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ฑ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The trillion dollars plus in infrastructure improvement legislated by the federal government is picking up pace, with around 70% of funds allocated.

The spending will continue well into 2026 and even a little beyond in some cases. This will include industrial construction, data center construction, and building out chip manufacturing capacity.

There are two key American ETFs for infrastructure: (1) the Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF ($PAVE), which is largely industrial, construction, and raw materials companies, and (2) the iShares U.S. Infrastructure ETF ($IFRA), which has those but also includes companies in utilities & energy.

$PAVE has appreciated against $IFRA for most of its history. $PAVE is the more pure infrastructure play, but $IFRA has the higher yield, as you'd expect from the make-up.

None of this is financial advice.

๐Ÿ”น CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”น
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๐Ÿ’ฐ Bitcoin has dropped $3,000 in price over the past 5 hours. It is still above the horizontal support at $108.5-$109.5. ๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
๐Ÿต๐Ÿฆง๐Ÿ‰๐ŸŠ Bitcoin has recovered the Traders' Realized Price at $116K.

๐Ÿช™ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿช™
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๐ŸŒ The OECDโ€™s policy rate projections for advanced economies (whatever that means anymore). ๐Ÿ› CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ›
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Expected Increase/Decrease in Policy Rates Over Next 12 Months

Most of the world is of course into their cutting cycles, while Japan continues normalization.

The pattern points to cautious, data-dependent central banks: some scope to trim rates where growth is cooling, but a softer glide path in economies that have already banked meaningful cuts.


We're easing, come hell or high water...

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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๐ŸŒ The Biggest Shifts in Currenciesโ€™ Value Against the Dollar
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The US dollar is having its worst year in decades.

This is the percent change in the U.S. Dollar index for each year up until September 18th.

This is largely a reflection of its performance against the Euro, which dominates the $DXY index on which this is based.

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The US dollar is having its worst year in decades.
๐Ÿฅ‡ Gold, on the other hand, is having its best year since 1979, up 46.57% year-to-date as of an hour ago.

Future prices reached an all-time high of $3,923 per ounce this morning around open and have since pulled back to $3,871.

Fun Fact: the very first post on this channel was about the importance of gold to every man, woman, child, institution, organization, and company. I said it's all about trading uncertainty.

I
showed you the central banks were driving the price up. I noted the likely further upside in August, as well as the miners before that and the lagging juniors after. I discussed the importance of gold reserves last Friday.

๐Ÿ“ˆ I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $XLV, returned to local range highs, rising 4.72% this week, including several gap days. The healthcare ETF is now breaking out of a down trend channel that stretches back a year. This puts $XLV atop the sector leaderboard for this week with communicationsโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $XLV, the S&P Healthcare Sector ETF, and $XAV1! (the futures market for same) suddenly rallied 5.5% Tuesday & Wednesday.

It's now broken out of the last dynamic resistance and has returned to March prices after a long consolidation that I pointed out early & at the lows.

Will it catch up to the S&P 500 on the year? It's on the way. The ratio of the sector to the broader market ($XLV/$SPY) is up 4.5% this week.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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