INTELRUNNER
11 subscribers
1.87K photos
9 videos
1.61K links
Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
Download Telegram
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Oil Barrel-to-Big Mac Ratio.

An oil barrel just doesnโ€™t buy as much as it used toโ€ฆ
๐ŸŒ The United States has become an increasingly expensive place to live relative to the world.

The Big Mac Index measures the cost of a Big Mac in USD in economies across the world.

๐Ÿ‘Ž CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ‘Ž
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Gold miners ($GDX) are back beneath the bold horizontal resistance in pre-market, but after a sideways slide back to dynamic support, theyโ€™re flirting with a breakout againโ€ฆ โ› CHART WATCH โ›
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The ratio of the VanEck Junior Gold Miners ETF ($GDXJ) to the VanEck Gold Miners ETF ($GDX) stands at 1.29, up from a low of 1.11 in July 2022 and up 9.8% since the start of September 2024.

However, itโ€™s been as high as 2.78 in 2010. Is this a catch-up play?* Hard to think so given $GDXJ has run further, but maybe it has further to run.

*Not even remotely financial advice.*

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
That means as far as Japanese auto exports are concerned, foreign exporters are paying into the tariffs...
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Ford Motor ($F) & General Motors ($GM) have hit 52-week highs, buoyed by the pending expiration of EV tax credits ($TSLA begged them to stop this last Thursday) & the news that the EPA intends to repeal the โ€œfoundationalโ€ ruling asserting so-called greenhouse gases are โ€œa threat to human life.โ€

Ford trades at a forward P/E ratio of 7.9โ€”a premium over GMโ€™s 5.1. On the other hand, Ford just beat on earnings by 12%, while GM beat by 0.3%. Ford has also more quickly adapted to the new reality of tariffs. Kevin Haggerty:

Ford Motor Company has announced a $5B domestic investment in its Michigan and Kentucky plants and will change its assembly line for the first time in 120 years. It plans on building an affordable "all-electric" pickup truck that will sell for $30k. Instead of an assembly line, they will employ an assembly "tree" that will reduce costs to keep the price low. They will build the vehicle in 3 pieces requiring fewer time, fewer people, and a lot less cost. FMC CEO Jim Farley said it will revolutionize how vehicles are constructed.


The new โ€œFord Universal EV Production Systemโ€ is expected to produce vehicles 40% faster with fewer people and less expense.

Ford is attempting to compensate for cost increases due to automotive tariffs with new expansion & these countervailing efficiencies in domestic production, which help qualify for critical tax cut incentives as a bonus.

This would protect margins and/or increase product affordability, either of which would help Ford secure a greater position in the American market. Short interest on Ford has fallen 4.2% in a month, and the Canadian Pension Plan added $6.75M in August for a total holding of $78.5M.

If Ford can preserve upward earnings momentum & execute on its assembly tree strategy, there may be very bright days for $F & its share price* aheadโ€”including relative to $GM, which is historically overvalued against $F at this decisive juncture.

*Donโ€™t even contemplate considering this financial advice.

๐Ÿš— CHART WATCH ๐Ÿš–
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The number of Walmart stores per state.

The state with the most Walmarts by far is Texas (596). The two biggest runners-up were Florida (387) and California (303).

The state with the fewest Walmarts is Vermont (6), as D.C. is not and can never be a state. Rhode Island and Hawaii are second from the bottom with 9 each.

Walmart operates 4600 stores in the U.S. (5200 including Samโ€™s Clubs) and 10K globally for 270 million total customers each week. Their operating margin is 4.2%, ROE is 24.4%, and 35.4% of that equity is owned by institutions.

๐Ÿ’ณ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ’ณ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
What countries are losing millionaires?
๐ŸŒ Millionaire Wealth Migration
Net Flows of Millionairesโ€™ Wealth in 2025 (as per Henley & Partners)

Where is their wealth going? The same places they are, naturally. Honorable mentions to Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, Monaco, Singapore, Portugal, and Greece:

๐Ÿฅ‡United Arab Emirates ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ช $63.0B
๐ŸฅˆUnited States of America ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ $43.7B
๐Ÿฅ‰Italy ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น $20.7B

Where is it coming from? Mostly the Brits, followed by all of the other major world powers (BRICS), followed by France, Spain, and Germany.

3๏ธโƒฃ India ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ -$26.2B
2๏ธโƒฃ China ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ -$55.9B
1๏ธโƒฃ United Kingdom ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง -$91.8B!

Whatโ€™s the bottom line? Wealth is leaving Western Europe, East Asia, and BRICS and flowing to the most welcome jurisdictions in the Gulf Kingdoms, America, and Southern Europe.

๐Ÿ’ต CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ’ต
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐ŸŒ The G7โ€™s Global Footprint ๐Ÿ† CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ†
๐ŸŒ This tree map compares the market capitalization of listed companies across the world's major economic blocs.

The obvious initial observation is that the G7 still dominates equity markets. They are structurally deeper, more stable, and more liquid despite reflecting lower growth potential than BRICS.

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S. dominance: At nearly $70T, the U.S. alone outweighs the combined market cap of all BRICS nations.
๏ปฟ๏ปฟ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ China's scale: With $19.8T, China is the only real challenger, though still less than one-third of U.S. markets.
๏ปฟ๏ปฟ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India's rise: Crossing $5T, India is emerging as a key BRICS growth engine.
๏ปฟ๏ปฟ๐ŸŒ Diversification: The "Rest of the World" at $24.7T shows that while power is concentrated, smaller markets collectively matter.


๐ŸŸฅ CHART WATCH ๐ŸŸฅ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
๐ŸŒ From $33 billion in 1987 to an estimated $697.18 billion in 2025 โ€” that's a +2,012.67% growth in the global semiconductor market.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ U.S. Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims ๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ In the first half of this year, jobless claims were running hot (at least relative to the past 2 years) and almost no one was speaking about layoffs.

Since mid-July, initial jobless claims look better than either of the last two yearsโ€ฆand job loss is a top subject.

What can you do?

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The share of US adults who drink alcohol is at its lowest since 1939โ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Amplify Alternative Harvest ETF had a big bounce today. $MJ appreciated +26.67% over the course of Monday's session!

Now 4% shy of the 52-week high, $MJ experienced a golden cross on the daily about a month ago.

๐Ÿš CHART WATCH ๐Ÿƒ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Global Gold Reserves: the United States of America vs. the World After the beginning of the end kicked off in 2008, many central banks (particularly in developing & emerging economies) began buying gold hand over fist, correctly anticipating devaluationโ€ฆ
๐ŸŒ The asset mix among the populations of major countries (and the U.K. for whatever reason) has some variation.

The Indians & to a lesser extent the Japanese are wisely stacking more gold. The United States is far too exposed to financial assets, and China is (effectively de jure) too exposed to real estate.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ Real Estate 50%, Gold 14%, Financial Assets 22%, Others 14%

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณ Real Estate 70%, Gold 2%, Financial Assets 22%, Others 6%

๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Real Estate 34%, Gold 1%, Financial Assets 54%, Others 11%

๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Real Estate 40%, Gold 5%, Financial Assets 40%, Others 15%

๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง Real Estate 45%, Gold 3%, Financial Assets 40%, Others 12%

๐Ÿ“Š I N T E L R U N N E R ๐Ÿ“Š
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Goldman Sachโ€™s non-profitable tech index is up 66% since its low around Liberation Dayโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ If the Tech-to-S&P 500 ratio ($XLK/$SPY) breaks out from its Dotcom highs (which it's been bobbing around for the past year & a half), then look out...

๐Ÿ˜€ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ˜€
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Government debt (lhs, % of GDP), serving costs thereof (rhs, %), and the rate of inflation (rhs, %) in two of the worldโ€™s most prominent developed economies, Japan & Germany. You donโ€™t have to grow to maintain a welfare state, but you may have to depreciateโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Speaking of major index breakouts, the Nikkei 225 is up 12 & 11 percent in the 2nd & 3rd quarters of this year.

That's been enough to produce a breakout from the old all-time-high levels established in 1989. It started pushing resistance in February of last year, and by June of this year, it had broken it.

It's been nothing but up since...

๐Ÿ•ฏ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ•ฏ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
Facebook remains the leading social media for news
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ TikTok's $14 billion sale in perspective. It's most similar to Snapchat, which caters to a similar demographic.

Of course, Twitter & Reddit were obscenely overpriced, but both were also (ostensibly) quasi-government projects, so I'm sure a full account of the relevant facts would explain those valuations.

H
ere's Harrison Berger on the impetus for the TikTok sale:

And as independent journalists Lee Fang and Jack Poulson reported last year, TikTok has forged a content moderation partnership with CyberWellโ€”an NGO closely linked to the Israeli government and staffed by Israeli spiesโ€”whose chief executive publicly boasts about the foreign lobbyโ€™s successful campaigns to suppress the free speech of Americans and restrict the information they can receive not just on TikTok but across โ€œall major social media platforms.โ€

The acquisition of TikTok by Oracle, Silver Lake, and Andreessen Horowitz is therefore not simply a reshuffling of corporate control, but the latest step to consolidate a foreign governmentโ€™s censorship regime in America. The appโ€™s new owners openly display their affection for, and often loyalty toward, Israel. 


Well that sounds fun.

๐ŸŽต CHART WATCH ๐ŸŽต
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ How those 2028 Polymarket odds have moved since mid-summer. ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Will there be a government shut down by October 1st? The denizens of Polymarket think there's a 93% chance of that (screaming up from 76% this morning).

Top picture is the past month of trading in this market. The past week and today are on the bottom. More on this later...

๐Ÿ”ฎ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”ฎ
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
Please open Telegram to view this post
VIEW IN TELEGRAM