🇺🇸 Long-Term Unemployment Is Rising Sans Recession (I think there’s a recession, but okay).

Long-term unemployment is defined as being jobless for 27+ weeks. We’ve reached 1.9 million now; that’s double early 2023.

If you factor in the jobs numbers revisions, one wonders what condition we’re really in economically. Hopefully something better than politically…

📊 CHART WATCH 📊

🇺🇸 The Dollar Index is still unable to flip resistance back to support at the bottom of this channel.

$DXY is up 150bp or so over the past 2 days (after falling 4% from the local high on 8/1). It will need to do that again to reenter the channel…

💲 CHART WATCH 💲

🇩🇪 Fresh polling (this time from YouGov) of the German public taken September 12th-15th has Alternative for Deutschland taking the lead away from the current largest party, CDU/CSU…

This corresponds to the recent surge for AfD in the North Rhine-Westphalia region. However, it isn’t all that different than the Forsa poll published on the 12th of August.

The only takeaways are that votes are still shifting away from more standard leftist parties (-2pp for both Grüne & Linke) and that the two right-wing parties could enact a moderate conservative agenda if the CDU/CSU wasn’t secretly globalist/more comfortable with the SPD.

**The next election is in 2029. The deltas noted for each party refer to the prior poll that wasn’t covered here from August 20th.

🗳 CHART WATCH 🗳

🇺🇸 The Polymarket odds for the 2028 Democratic Primary:

🛑Gavin Newsom 36%
🛑Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11%
🛑Pete Buttigieg 6%
🛑Wes Moore 5%
🛑Jon Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer 4%

🇺🇸 CHART WATCH 🇺🇸

🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims

Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped by 33,000 in the week of September 13 to 231,000, from 264,000 in the week ended September 6, revised from 263,000.

🛫 CHART WATCH 🛫

🌎 The Periodic Table of Investment Returns

ℹ️ CHART WATCH ℹ️

🇺🇸 The Number of S&P Members Spinning Off Companies Is Near A Decade High

So far this year, plenty of household names opted to split themselves apart: industrial giant Honeywell ($HON) is dividing into three, while Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD) said in June it would separate its TV networks from streaming and studios. Keurig Dr Pepper ($KDP) plans to separate its soda and coffee businesses after completing its $18 billion acquisition of JDE Peet's. And Kraft Heinz ($KHC) will spin off its grocery arm, shedding Kraft-branded staples like boxed mac and cheese and frozen meals.

↗️ CHART WATCH ↗️

🌐 The Biggest Shifts in Currencies’ Value Against the Dollar

Double Digit Gains: 🇧🇷🇨🇭🇪🇺🇲🇽

Double Digit Losses: 🇹🇷

💱 CHART WATCH 💱

🇺🇸 Momentum is the best-performing factor on the year.

This is interesting because it was getting crushed towards the middle.

Low Volatility is getting decimated.

📊 CHART WATCH 📊

🌐 G7 Rate Cuts

-2.5pp — 🇩🇪🇫🇷🇮🇹🇨🇦

-1.25pp — 🇺🇸🇬🇧

+0.6pp — 🇯🇵

🛍 CHART WATCH 🛍

🌐 Cancer rates across the Americas…

🍲 CHART WATCH 🍲

🇮🇪 The prediction market for the upcoming vote on the Irish presidency (October 24, 2025).

Jim Gavin is clinging to a slight lead. Heather Humphreys has been narrowing the gap all week and is now closer to regaining 1st than she’s been all month.

There is half a point of distance between them.

✅ CHART WATCH ✅

🇮🇪 This is a national poll about support for Irish political parties. There’s been a fair amount of chop of late among the top 3, and the Soc Dems have broken from the pack to take a clear 4th:

1️⃣ Sinn Féin

2️⃣ Fianna Fáil

3️⃣ Fine Gael

4️⃣ Social Democrats

❌ CHART WATCH ❌

🇺🇸 About 1 in 3 American women over the age of 60 is on psychiatric medications.

This trend has continued to worsen since at least 1999, as indicated by the upward shift period to period.

💊 CHART WATCH 💊

🇺🇸 The United States of America is once again in possession of the highest price-to-earnings ratio in three world.

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 Money market fund assets as a percent of the S&P market cap…

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 Performance of the NASDAQ 100 following (1) the Netscape IPO and (2) the release of ChatGPT.

The Netscape IPO (light blue) started trading in August 1995. ChatGPT (dark blue) came out in November 2022.

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🤑 Will Ethereum & the Russell 2000 break out to new highs like Bitcoin & the NASDAQ 100?

Whatever happens, since mid-2021, these two assets ($ETH, $IWM) do it together…

📊 CHART WATCH 📊

🇺🇸 Trade & tariffs still top the list of firms’ most pressing concerns, but it’s falling, while monetary policy, inflation, and labor availability are rising…

📝 CHART WATCH 📝