🇺🇸 Target Rate Probabilities for 17 September 2025 Fed Meeting

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🌎 Returns Leaderboard for the week ending on September 12th (in USD)…

🥇 🪙 Bitcoin
🥇 🇨🇳 China Equities
🥇 🇨🇳 Emerging Market Equities

⬇️ Japanese Yen, the Dollar Index

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🌐 The top 10 & bottom 10 countries in local vs. international representation in the Spotify Weekly Top 200 charts…

🇫🇷 60% of artists played in France are French (double that of the United Kingdom or Spain).

🇪🇸 Speaking of the Spanish, Puerto Rican Bad Bunny outranks all natives.

🇺🇸 American artists are in the top 5 of 70 out of 73, demonstrating global presence.

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🇩🇪 Alternative for Deutschland is surging beyond its East German enclave.

AfD has tripled their last performance in the local elections in North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW), moving from 5% to 14.5%, as the Greens have taken a beating, losing a third of their support and the third position among parties.

This jump to 3rd for AfD is even more remarkable given 32% of the population of NRW has a “migration background,” as they say over there.

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🇺🇸 Impact of Childhood Vaccination on Short- and Long-Term Chronic Health Outcomes in Children: A Birth Cohort Study

This is Figure 1 from the Henry Ford Health System study of 16,511 vaccinated & 1,957 unvaccinated children. They used medical records from 2000-2016 and tracked children for a decade. The higher on the y axis, the higher your probability of making it through the period disease-free.

The study found that unvaccinated children have a 17% chance of acquiring at least one chronic disease by age 10. Vaccinated children (at least one, with a median of 18 among the group) exhibited a whopping 57% probability of ending up with a disease by the time they are 10 years old.

The vaxxed are 2.48 times more likely to suffer from a chronic health condition within 10 years.

The routine childhood vaccination schedule generated 5.96 times more autoimmune disease, 5.53 times more neurodevelopmental disorders, 4.29 times more asthma, and 3.03 times more atopic disease.

The 453% increase in neurodevelopmental disorders includes a 228% increase in developmental delay, a 192% increase in motor disability, and a 347% increase in speech disorders.

Just to reiterate: only 43% of vaccinated children escaped their first decade without a chronic health issue. 83% of unvaccinated children did not meet this fate. The authors were confident in their conclusions, but “higher-ups” in their hospital system insisted on hiding it instead of publishing it…

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🇺🇸 Autozone is on fire over the past 5 years. $AZO is up 240.94% over the period.

Google ($GOOGL) is at 235.82% and Meta ($META) is at 188.9%.

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🇺🇸 Quarterly GDP for the present period is estimated by the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model to be at 3.4%.

That’s up 0.3% over the past few days and 0.9% since August 5th.

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💎 Gold is up roughly $2500 and 7.5% since I posted about its compressed triangle on August 28th…

Just sayin’.

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➡️ Bitcoin’s Realized Price by Age (light orange = 1 month–3 months; dark orange = 1 week–1 month; and red = 1 day–1 week).

The 1M–3M level is key. If all goes well, we should hope to hold $112K-$114K through the FOMC meeting & press conference.

🤑 CHART WATCH 🤑

🇺🇸 Long-Term Unemployment Is Rising Sans Recession (I think there’s a recession, but okay).

Long-term unemployment is defined as being jobless for 27+ weeks. We’ve reached 1.9 million now; that’s double early 2023.

If you factor in the jobs numbers revisions, one wonders what condition we’re really in economically. Hopefully something better than politically…

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🇺🇸 The Dollar Index is still unable to flip resistance back to support at the bottom of this channel.

$DXY is up 150bp or so over the past 2 days (after falling 4% from the local high on 8/1). It will need to do that again to reenter the channel…

💲 CHART WATCH 💲

🇩🇪 Fresh polling (this time from YouGov) of the German public taken September 12th-15th has Alternative for Deutschland taking the lead away from the current largest party, CDU/CSU…

This corresponds to the recent surge for AfD in the North Rhine-Westphalia region. However, it isn’t all that different than the Forsa poll published on the 12th of August.

The only takeaways are that votes are still shifting away from more standard leftist parties (-2pp for both Grüne & Linke) and that the two right-wing parties could enact a moderate conservative agenda if the CDU/CSU wasn’t secretly globalist/more comfortable with the SPD.

**The next election is in 2029. The deltas noted for each party refer to the prior poll that wasn’t covered here from August 20th.

🗳 CHART WATCH 🗳

🇺🇸 The Polymarket odds for the 2028 Democratic Primary:

🛑Gavin Newsom 36%
🛑Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 11%
🛑Pete Buttigieg 6%
🛑Wes Moore 5%
🛑Jon Ossoff, Josh Shapiro, Kamala Harris, Gretchen Whitmer 4%

🇺🇸 CHART WATCH 🇺🇸

🇺🇸 Initial Jobless Insurance Claims

Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped by 33,000 in the week of September 13 to 231,000, from 264,000 in the week ended September 6, revised from 263,000.

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🌎 The Periodic Table of Investment Returns

ℹ️ CHART WATCH ℹ️

🇺🇸 The Number of S&P Members Spinning Off Companies Is Near A Decade High

So far this year, plenty of household names opted to split themselves apart: industrial giant Honeywell ($HON) is dividing into three, while Warner Bros. Discovery ($WBD) said in June it would separate its TV networks from streaming and studios. Keurig Dr Pepper ($KDP) plans to separate its soda and coffee businesses after completing its $18 billion acquisition of JDE Peet's. And Kraft Heinz ($KHC) will spin off its grocery arm, shedding Kraft-branded staples like boxed mac and cheese and frozen meals.

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🌐 The Biggest Shifts in Currencies’ Value Against the Dollar

Double Digit Gains: 🇧🇷🇨🇭🇪🇺🇲🇽

Double Digit Losses: 🇹🇷

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