INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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๐ŸŒŽ 2nd Quarter GDP growth rates by nation.

Denmark, Croatia, and Romania are leading with rates of 1.2% or greater in the first case.

Italy (-0.1%), Germany (-0.3%), and Finland (-0.4%) are negative.

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls: Total Month-over-Month Net Change (seasonally adjusted)โ€ฆ

Note: the Birth-Death Model put in heavy work on this one, reversing a 74K decline to a 96K gain. The malfeasance in government statistics offices knows no bounds.

๐Ÿ”บ๏ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”บ๏ธ
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๐ŸŒŽ Where Remittance Exceed Top Export Revenue (Africa)

In other words: where the people exported send more money home to a country than the amount exported goods & services can muster for that country.

Gambia is way out in the lead with a multiple of 36.1X.

๐Ÿ’ฐ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ’ฐ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Hereโ€™s some polling on the New York mayoral race. If we retain 4 candidates, Mamdani wins decisively with a plurality of 39% (w/ Cuomo in 2nd at 21% and Sliwa in 3rd with 18%). Were it a head-to-head between Mamdani & the embattled current mayor, Ericโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Weโ€™ve got fresh polling on the New York mayoral race, courtesy of Tulchin Researchโ€ฆ

Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani still leads a 4-man 5-man race with 42%. Disgraced ex-governor Cuomo would be the closest at 26%, followed by Republican Curtis Sliwa with 17%.

The current mayor of New York, Eric Adams, is polling only 9%. He is being discussed for an ambassadorship to Saudi Arabia (likely to get him out of Cuomoโ€™s way).

๐Ÿ—ณ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ—ณ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Tesla ($TSLA) has been consolidating awhileโ€ฆ

โšก๏ธ CHART WATCH โšก๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Durable goods manufacturing is losing jobs at an accelerating pace.

In better news, the government is still losing jobs.

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germanyโ€™s energy has stopped contracting, but wind has been a real letdown of late (there isnโ€™t much of it).

Solar is doing better than ever (clearly the winner between the two in the grand European experiment), but it was renewed usage of coal that truly saved the day.

โ˜€๏ธ CHART WATCH โ˜€๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The U.S. Job-Finding Rate fell from 26.8% to 24.7%.

The rate attempts to approximate the odds of an unemployed person finding a job within a given period, typically a month.

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Weโ€™ve got fresh polling on the New York mayoral race, courtesy of Tulchin Researchโ€ฆ Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani still leads a 4-man 5-man race with 42%. Disgraced ex-governor Cuomo would be the closest at 26%, followed by Republican Curtis Sliwaโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ More polling on the New York mayoral race from the Tulchin Research report. This shows ex-Governor Andrew Cuomo defeating Zohran Mamdani by 11 percentage points in a hypothetical head-to-head contest.

Cuomo garners 52% of the vote to Mamdaniโ€™s 41%. Rumors have flown about the White House aiding in cutting down on the participants. The voting begins October 25th and runs through Election Day, November 2nd.

๐Ÿ—ณ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ—ณ
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๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Franceโ€™s debt-to-GDP ratio is at 113% and pushing the COVID highs of 115%.

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany, on the other hand, is not suffering from a debt crisis but a stagnation crisis. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is 62.5%.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls: Total Month-over-Month Net Change (seasonally adjusted)โ€ฆ Note: the Birth-Death Model put in heavy work on this one, reversing a 74K decline to a 96K gain. The malfeasance in government statistics offices knows no bounds.โ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The growth in American jobs has been woefully dependent on additions to the Health Care and Social Assistance sector.

If you remove those from non-farm payrolls, weโ€™ve lost 143,000 jobs over the last four months.

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The growth in American jobs has been woefully dependent on additions to the Health Care and Social Assistance sector. If you remove those from non-farm payrolls, weโ€™ve lost 143,000 jobs over the last four months. ๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The 3-month moving average of total job growth excluding healthcare.

Itโ€™s been noted this is the first time in 25 years that it has gone negative outside of a recession.

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The gerontocracy in the House of Representatives.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ It appears most of the nation is entering or already is in recession.

๐ŸŒŽ CHART WATCH ๐ŸŒŽ
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ This is the change in government primary balance (y axis) and the change in the unemployment rate (x axis)in the Eurozone, latest vs. Q4 2019.

Best Fiscal Shape: ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พ
(Greece, Spain, Cyprus)

Worst Fiscal Shape: ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช
(Finland, Austria, Germany)

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท This says more about France than Italy.

This is a trillion dollar issue Paris has to deal withโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Fed Funds & Unemployment Rates

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช The German statistics office has made dramatic revisions to the GDP data. The updates revealed Germany had experienced a recession after all. I, for one, thought the oscillation back & forth between positive & negative was slightly odd, but these are someโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Total Job Growth Before & After CES Benchmark Revisions (thousands, seasonally adjusted)

More at NFU: We Need Independent Public Data Collection

The madness of making financial & economic decisions on the basis of the work of statisticians with immense career incentives to politicize (both in the partisan & nonpartisan senses) the numbers must end.

๐Ÿ›  CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ› 
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The S&P 500 ($SPX) has had -21% fall and a 34% rally to a series of all-time highs so far this yearโ€ฆ ๐ŸŒ CHART WATCH ๐ŸŒ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ When the S&P 500 rises 30%, it tends to be even higher over the following period. In fact, itโ€™s higher 100% of time 2-12 months after the signal.

Today is the best advance-decline reading in the $SPX since May 27th, and itโ€™s another new all-time high.

The index is up 36% since Liberation Day and has added $15 trillion in market cap over the last 5 months.

๐ŸŒ CHART WATCH ๐ŸŒ
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