INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต The Yen continues to fall. ๐ŸŽŒ CHART WATCH ๐ŸŽŒ
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต The Swiss Franc is up 66% against the Japanese Yen since the start of 2020โ€ฆ

๐Ÿ’ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ’ธ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ This would be the same Europe with the wild, bellicose rhetoric and the obstinate insistence on Ukrainians continuing to fight (even though the Ukrainians want out). Note the 2022 halving of European trade with Russia coincides with the doubling ofโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น European GDPs, adjusted for purchasing power parity in โ€œinternational dollars.โ€

A PPP-adjusted โ€œinternational dollarโ€ buys in each country what $1 buys in America.

The European economy totals $44 trillion in such dollars, and while Western Europe is a large nominal proportion, accounting for purchasing power results in Eastern Europe significantly excelling both Western & Northern Europe.

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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INTELRUNNER
It is the difference between labor demand (the sum of job openings & civilian employment) and labor supply (civilian labor force).
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Checking in on the Jobs-Workers Gap.

We are officially under zero, meaning there are fewer jobs than unemployed peopleโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ’ป CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ‘จโ€๐Ÿ’ป
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ This is the annual median salary of American wage & salary workers over 25 by education level.

At the top end, professional degree holders in the U.S. have a median annual salary of $122.9K, closely followed by doctoral degree holders at $118.5K. Earnings drop off significantly from there, with master's degree holders making nearly $23K less than those with doctoral degrees at $95.7K.

A similarly big difference is between those with a bachelor's degree and those without. Having a bachelor's degree sees a median salary of $80.2K, while just an associate degree has a median salary of $57.2K.


๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช In the the Eurozone, Spain is way out in front of the other large economies. In fact, it has been outperforming for most of the last year & a half.

Hereโ€™s Spain beating the back in manufacturing PMI.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ This is the number of hostages held by the Israeli government and Gaza โ€œgovernmentโ€ respectively.

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐ŸŒŽ 2nd Quarter GDP growth rates by nation.

Denmark, Croatia, and Romania are leading with rates of 1.2% or greater in the first case.

Italy (-0.1%), Germany (-0.3%), and Finland (-0.4%) are negative.

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฐ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls: Total Month-over-Month Net Change (seasonally adjusted)โ€ฆ

Note: the Birth-Death Model put in heavy work on this one, reversing a 74K decline to a 96K gain. The malfeasance in government statistics offices knows no bounds.

๐Ÿ”บ๏ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”บ๏ธ
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๐ŸŒŽ Where Remittance Exceed Top Export Revenue (Africa)

In other words: where the people exported send more money home to a country than the amount exported goods & services can muster for that country.

Gambia is way out in the lead with a multiple of 36.1X.

๐Ÿ’ฐ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ’ฐ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Hereโ€™s some polling on the New York mayoral race. If we retain 4 candidates, Mamdani wins decisively with a plurality of 39% (w/ Cuomo in 2nd at 21% and Sliwa in 3rd with 18%). Were it a head-to-head between Mamdani & the embattled current mayor, Ericโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Weโ€™ve got fresh polling on the New York mayoral race, courtesy of Tulchin Researchโ€ฆ

Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani still leads a 4-man 5-man race with 42%. Disgraced ex-governor Cuomo would be the closest at 26%, followed by Republican Curtis Sliwa with 17%.

The current mayor of New York, Eric Adams, is polling only 9%. He is being discussed for an ambassadorship to Saudi Arabia (likely to get him out of Cuomoโ€™s way).

๐Ÿ—ณ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ—ณ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Tesla ($TSLA) has been consolidating awhileโ€ฆ

โšก๏ธ CHART WATCH โšก๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Durable goods manufacturing is losing jobs at an accelerating pace.

In better news, the government is still losing jobs.

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germanyโ€™s energy has stopped contracting, but wind has been a real letdown of late (there isnโ€™t much of it).

Solar is doing better than ever (clearly the winner between the two in the grand European experiment), but it was renewed usage of coal that truly saved the day.

โ˜€๏ธ CHART WATCH โ˜€๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The U.S. Job-Finding Rate fell from 26.8% to 24.7%.

The rate attempts to approximate the odds of an unemployed person finding a job within a given period, typically a month.

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Weโ€™ve got fresh polling on the New York mayoral race, courtesy of Tulchin Researchโ€ฆ Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani still leads a 4-man 5-man race with 42%. Disgraced ex-governor Cuomo would be the closest at 26%, followed by Republican Curtis Sliwaโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ More polling on the New York mayoral race from the Tulchin Research report. This shows ex-Governor Andrew Cuomo defeating Zohran Mamdani by 11 percentage points in a hypothetical head-to-head contest.

Cuomo garners 52% of the vote to Mamdaniโ€™s 41%. Rumors have flown about the White House aiding in cutting down on the participants. The voting begins October 25th and runs through Election Day, November 2nd.

๐Ÿ—ณ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ—ณ
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๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท Franceโ€™s debt-to-GDP ratio is at 113% and pushing the COVID highs of 115%.

๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany, on the other hand, is not suffering from a debt crisis but a stagnation crisis. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is 62.5%.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls: Total Month-over-Month Net Change (seasonally adjusted)โ€ฆ Note: the Birth-Death Model put in heavy work on this one, reversing a 74K decline to a 96K gain. The malfeasance in government statistics offices knows no bounds.โ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The growth in American jobs has been woefully dependent on additions to the Health Care and Social Assistance sector.

If you remove those from non-farm payrolls, weโ€™ve lost 143,000 jobs over the last four months.

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The growth in American jobs has been woefully dependent on additions to the Health Care and Social Assistance sector. If you remove those from non-farm payrolls, weโ€™ve lost 143,000 jobs over the last four months. ๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The 3-month moving average of total job growth excluding healthcare.

Itโ€™s been noted this is the first time in 25 years that it has gone negative outside of a recession.

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The gerontocracy in the House of Representatives.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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