INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally 🇺🇸 but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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🇺🇸 Energy looks ready for takeoff.

Are we going to war again?

🔸 CHART WATCH 🔸
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INTELRUNNER
🇷🇺 🇨🇳🇮🇳 Where has Russian oil gone in the first half of 2025?
🇷🇺 🇪🇺🇺🇸 This would be the same Europe with the wild, bellicose rhetoric and the obstinate insistence on Ukrainians continuing to fight (even though the Ukrainians want out).

Note the 2022 halving of European trade with Russia coincides with the doubling of European trade with Central Asia. Recall they’re buying Russian oil through India & Turkey (and a bit straight from Russia). Recall they’re still buying about 20% of their natural gas directly from Russia; in fact, they’re the top buyer of Russian LNG & pipeline gas (which aren’t even sanctioned, by the way) by a mile…

I don’t have a problem with any of this, but they should cut the crap.

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🇯🇵 The Yen continues to fall. 🎌 CHART WATCH 🎌
🇨🇭 🇯🇵 The Swiss Franc is up 66% against the Japanese Yen since the start of 2020…

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🇷🇺 🇪🇺🇺🇸 This would be the same Europe with the wild, bellicose rhetoric and the obstinate insistence on Ukrainians continuing to fight (even though the Ukrainians want out). Note the 2022 halving of European trade with Russia coincides with the doubling of…
🇷🇺🇩🇪🇫🇷🇬🇧🇮🇹 European GDPs, adjusted for purchasing power parity in “international dollars.”

A PPP-adjusted “international dollar” buys in each country what $1 buys in America.

The European economy totals $44 trillion in such dollars, and while Western Europe is a large nominal proportion, accounting for purchasing power results in Eastern Europe significantly excelling both Western & Northern Europe.

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It is the difference between labor demand (the sum of job openings & civilian employment) and labor supply (civilian labor force).
🇺🇸 Checking in on the Jobs-Workers Gap.

We are officially under zero, meaning there are fewer jobs than unemployed people…

👨‍💻 CHART WATCH 👨‍💻
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🇺🇸 This is the annual median salary of American wage & salary workers over 25 by education level.

At the top end, professional degree holders in the U.S. have a median annual salary of $122.9K, closely followed by doctoral degree holders at $118.5K. Earnings drop off significantly from there, with master's degree holders making nearly $23K less than those with doctoral degrees at $95.7K.

A similarly big difference is between those with a bachelor's degree and those without. Having a bachelor's degree sees a median salary of $80.2K, while just an associate degree has a median salary of $57.2K.


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🇪🇸 🇮🇹🇫🇷🇩🇪 In the the Eurozone, Spain is way out in front of the other large economies. In fact, it has been outperforming for most of the last year & a half.

Here’s Spain beating the back in manufacturing PMI.

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🇮🇱🇵🇸 This is the number of hostages held by the Israeli government and Gaza “government” respectively.

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🌎 2nd Quarter GDP growth rates by nation.

Denmark, Croatia, and Romania are leading with rates of 1.2% or greater in the first case.

Italy (-0.1%), Germany (-0.3%), and Finland (-0.4%) are negative.

🇩🇰 CHART WATCH 🇫🇮
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🇺🇸 Employees on Nonfarm Payrolls: Total Month-over-Month Net Change (seasonally adjusted)…

Note: the Birth-Death Model put in heavy work on this one, reversing a 74K decline to a 96K gain. The malfeasance in government statistics offices knows no bounds.

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🌎 Where Remittance Exceed Top Export Revenue (Africa)

In other words: where the people exported send more money home to a country than the amount exported goods & services can muster for that country.

Gambia is way out in the lead with a multiple of 36.1X.

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🇺🇸 Here’s some polling on the New York mayoral race. If we retain 4 candidates, Mamdani wins decisively with a plurality of 39% (w/ Cuomo in 2nd at 21% and Sliwa in 3rd with 18%). Were it a head-to-head between Mamdani & the embattled current mayor, Eric…
🇺🇸 We’ve got fresh polling on the New York mayoral race, courtesy of Tulchin Research…

Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani still leads a 4-man 5-man race with 42%. Disgraced ex-governor Cuomo would be the closest at 26%, followed by Republican Curtis Sliwa with 17%.

The current mayor of New York, Eric Adams, is polling only 9%. He is being discussed for an ambassadorship to Saudi Arabia (likely to get him out of Cuomo’s way).

🗳 CHART WATCH 🗳
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🇺🇸 Tesla ($TSLA) has been consolidating awhile…

⚡️ CHART WATCH ⚡️
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🇺🇸 Durable goods manufacturing is losing jobs at an accelerating pace.

In better news, the government is still losing jobs.

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🇩🇪 Germany’s energy has stopped contracting, but wind has been a real letdown of late (there isn’t much of it).

Solar is doing better than ever (clearly the winner between the two in the grand European experiment), but it was renewed usage of coal that truly saved the day.

☀️ CHART WATCH ☀️
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🇺🇸 The U.S. Job-Finding Rate fell from 26.8% to 24.7%.

The rate attempts to approximate the odds of an unemployed person finding a job within a given period, typically a month.

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INTELRUNNER
🇺🇸 We’ve got fresh polling on the New York mayoral race, courtesy of Tulchin Research… Democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani still leads a 4-man 5-man race with 42%. Disgraced ex-governor Cuomo would be the closest at 26%, followed by Republican Curtis Sliwa…
🇺🇸 More polling on the New York mayoral race from the Tulchin Research report. This shows ex-Governor Andrew Cuomo defeating Zohran Mamdani by 11 percentage points in a hypothetical head-to-head contest.

Cuomo garners 52% of the vote to Mamdani’s 41%. Rumors have flown about the White House aiding in cutting down on the participants. The voting begins October 25th and runs through Election Day, November 2nd.

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