INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally 🇺🇸 but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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🇺🇸 A lot of U.S. naval assets turning up in and around the Caribbean.

Are they for the cartels? Or the Venezuelans?

🚢🚢 CHART WATCH 🚢🚢
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🇬🇧 U.K. Gilt Yields, 10- and 30-year. The Telegraph:

Willem Buiter, another former member of the Monetary Policy Committee, said that, unless Ms Reeves changed course, she would face scrutiny from the markets “that will be at least as effective as the pressure from the IMF was in the 1970s”.
He said the Chancellor “will be forced” to break Labour’s manifesto and raise taxes on working people in the autumn to calm the bond markets.
“I think there’s no realistic alternative to basically breaking the commitment not to raise key taxes, personal income tax, VAT, during this Government’s term in office. So she will be forced to do that,” he added.


Oh yeah, great idea…

💯 CHART WATCH 💯
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🇩🇪 🇮🇹 This is another chart worth keeping an eye on as Germany insists on committing suicide. After hitting a high of 558bp during the 2011 Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe, the spread between German & Italian 10-year debt settled into a range between 1 &…
🇬🇧🇬🇷 The Greek 10-Year Government Bond (GGB) yield subtracted from the British 10-year Gilt yield. Andrew Sentance, ex-Monetary Policy Committee:

“We’ve still got bond yields that are even higher than the US. In fact, we’re even higher than Greece when it comes to borrowing costs, which is an indictment of where the UK is at the moment, or where it’s perceived to be by the financial markets.”


Yeah, fair enough. In early 2016, still in the throes of their debt crisis, Greece was paying over 10pp more for 10-year debt. Now Greece is paying around 1.3pp less than the U.K.

💯 CHART WATCH 💯
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🇺🇸 $ETHA becomes the third fastest growing ETF, behind $IBIT $FBTC… 🪙 CHART WATCH 🪙
🇺🇸 The number of ETFs have surpassed the number of actual stocks…

🫥 CHART WATCH 🫥
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🇩🇪 🇮🇹 This is another chart worth keeping an eye on as Germany insists on committing suicide. After hitting a high of 558bp during the 2011 Sovereign Debt Crisis in Europe, the spread between German & Italian 10-year debt settled into a range between 1 &…
🌐 Remember that “sell America” trade the financial press was trying so hard to sell you in April?

As it turns out, it never made it out of April, and a whole lot of “buy America” ensued in May & June.

💫 CHART WATCH 💫
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🇺🇸 U.S. 12-Month Consumer Inflation Expectations: the Conference Board (dark blue), the University of Michigan (light blue), and the New York Fed (…I guess medium blue).

📈 CHART WATCH 📈
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🇫🇷🇩🇪 10Y OAT-Bund Spread, in basis points…

📈 CHART WATCH 📉
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🇺🇸 Will Lisa Cook, fired from the Fed over financial fraud, be arrested by September 30th?

Newly trading on Polymarket.

🤩 CHART WATCH 👿
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🇺🇸 Apple's ($AAPL) $100 billion stock repurchase plan is the biggest among US announced buybacks so far this year, followed by Alphabet’s ($GOOG)…

🍎 CHART WATCH 🔍
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🇺🇸 Buffett’s Top Stocks (1978-2024)

🍎 CHART WATCH 🌟
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🌎 Global central bank net gold purchases have slowed amid a record rally in gold prices… Gold shed 1.32% yesterday. 🪙 CHART WATCH 🪙
🌐 The gold price (GCV25) is extremely compressed with upward trending lows & flat highs.

It’s gonna blow!

🪙 CHART WATCH 🪙
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🌐 Average Altcoin Price (Top 150 Coins by Market-Cap, Equally-Weighted)

💰 CHART WATCH 🤑
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🇺🇸🇨🇳 The number of Chinese students in America over time by educational level…

📚 CHART WATCH 🎓
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🇺🇸 Meta ($META) has gained 1.36 billion users since 2019 across their 4 platforms (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Messenger). They brought in $47.52 billion in revenue. They surprised to the upside on earnings on Wednesday (+21.36%) and the price gapped up…
🇺🇸 The chart shows cash burn at the Meta. The author is pointing out that in both 2022 & 2025, Zuckerberg was blowing through capital expenditure.

In 2022, investors punished $META with a 77% decline from its peak. This time, despite blowing a similar percentage of cash, the stock is up 45%.

I have a theory: in 2022, Zuck was wasting all of that money on the metaverse. People found that whole concept dubious. No one was all that interested in trading in reality for a new virtual life, and so the spend seemed asinine.

This spend is on AI & other market trends. It is congruent with the contemporary bubble narrative. Meta may be deluded once again, but if so, this time so are the investors…

📱 CHART WATCH 📱
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🇺🇸 2028 Democratic Primary polling
🇺🇸 Gavin Newsom’s non-campaign presidential campaign has paid off for him so far this summer, according to new polling from Emerson College.

At least with people who fall for that sort of thing…

CHART WATCH
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🇺🇸 September seasonality for the S&P 500: 56% declines of an average of -1.17%.

🔴 CHART WATCH 🔴
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🌎 Bitcoin: Price Performance Since Cycle Low 🔹: 2015-2018 Cycle 🔹: 2018-2022 Cycle 🔹: 2022-now Cycle We are 2-3 months from the part in the timeline where the last two cycles hit all-time highs, but we still haven’t seen the big pop from this level like…
🌎 Bitcoin is at a critical point in its price action. It’s re-testing the December-January resistance.

Is 108.5-109.5 now support? Or are we in for a spill? Either way, something significant is likely to occur.

In fact, there’s a number of assets with volatility that seems eerily low.

😰 CHART WATCH 😰
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