INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The tenth decile was the only negative decile yesterday.

This means there was strong breadth in the market despite the mega caps suffering.

๐Ÿ”บ๏ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”บ๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The ratio of the Leading Economic Index relative to the Coincident Economic Index is at historic lows, excelled only by 1981-2 & 2007-9.

In the past, these levels have marked the terminus of recessions.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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INTELRUNNER
Nvidia ($NVDA) has a larger share of the ACWI World Index than any one of these countries and several combinations of thereof.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Nvidia has broken the upward trend line stretching back to Liberation Day. It more than doubled in price over the period, extending over $4 trillion in market cap in July.

Now, with $NVDA more highly valued than the entire S&P 500 and possessing a larger share of the ACWI World Index than numerous major countries (like Japan, China, or France & Germany combined), it may be time for a correction.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
Will solar repeat its Trump I performance? Itโ€™s up 30% since Inauguration Day
๐ŸŒ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ A global index of clean energy stocks & the S&P 500 index in the United States.

The renewable sector seems to be in significant trouble. While solar broke out 6 weeks ago and renewables have seen some mean reversion lately, growth remains dependent on public expenditure (contrary to umpteen governmentsโ€™ predictions).

Wherever the subsidies have been pulled, the market share instantly begins to shrink. Green energy just doesnโ€™t measure up yet, and pretending otherwise is digging a deeper hole with no exit strategyโ€ฆ

โ˜€๏ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”˜
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INTELRUNNER
The renewable sector seems to be in significant trouble.
๐ŸŒ Energy consumption across the world by energy type, from smallest to largest:

6. Hydro
5. Nuclear
4. Renewables
3. Natural Gas
2. Coal
1. Oil

Oil, coal, and natural gas are the Big 3 and represent over 80% of all energy consumed.

โšก๏ธ CHART WATCH โšก๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Composite PMI and Price Pressures

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Foreign buyers of treasuries down, active Tether addresses way up.

Is Tether the new key marginal buyer of treasuries?

๐Ÿค‘ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿค‘
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ S&P 500 Historical Performance Post Jackson Hole

This annual Fed Chairman speech often makes waves.

Powell said this morning that the "shifting balance of risks" to employment and inflation "may warrant adjusting our policy stance."


โœ‚๏ธ CHART WATCH โœ‚๏ธ
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๐ŸŒ Asking both men & women in Europe: would you fight for your own country?

The highest in Europe: ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ (74%), ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท (73%), ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ (62%), ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ & ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช (58%)

The lowest in Europe: ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ (15%), ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช (18%), ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช (19%), ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น (20%), ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ (22%)

๐Ÿช– CHART WATCH ๐Ÿช–
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ JPMorganโ€™s market cap surpasses the combined value of Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo. ๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Invesco KBW Bank ETF is 20ยข shy of new highsโ€ฆ

The top 3 holdings in $KBWB are massive banks $GS, $JPM, and $MS, but institutions like State Street ($STT) & Capital One ($COF) also make the top 10.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
Bitcoin & Ethereum ETFs now make up about 1.6% of total ETF assets.
Bitcoin is now 2% of all global moneyโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ’ฐ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ’ฐ
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INTELRUNNER
Alternative for Deutschland taking the lead in Germany.
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Religion in Germany.

Yet another German map that has this Berlin Wall division, just like the electoral ones.

โœ๏ธ CHART WATCH โœ๏ธ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Opendoor Technologies has had a big month, gaining over 600% as of pre-market this morning. Yesterday, $OPEN traded 298% of its market cap, coming close to topping $GMEโ€™s 316% on January 25, 2021. ๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Opendoor Technologies is up 833.5% since July 1stโ€ฆ

$OPEN exploded upwards due to a meme stock frenzy. This may have had something to do with short interest rising from 12 to 21 percent between May 28th & June 30th, a 75% increase.

Shares outstanding are up 16% over the past 3 years, and net income margin has been continually negative. It came in at -5.89% for Q2, which improves up Q2 in 2024 (-8.76%) and Q2 in 2023 (-12.42%).

๐Ÿ”ผ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”ผ
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The revenue of Amazon Web Services ($AMZN) vs. Azure ($MSFT) vs. Google Cloud ($GOOGL)
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Google ($GOOGL) has slid to 48% of search ad revenue (hallelujah), falling from a 60% share as recently as 2018. Amazon ($AMZN), as low as 10% in 2018, has risen to a 24% share today.

Microsoft ($MSFT) is up a few percentage points over this period, reaching 5%, and Apple ($AAPL), also at 5%, went down a few points to get thereโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ” CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ฆ
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INTELRUNNER
Bitcoin is now 2% of all global moneyโ€ฆ
๐ŸŒ Ethereum has hit a new all-time high!

๐Ÿ’ฒ4๏ธโƒฃ๐Ÿ”ฃ8๏ธโƒฃ8๏ธโƒฃ7๏ธโƒฃ

โžก๏ธ $ETH is up 102.5% since July 2nd.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
30-year government bond yields
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต The 20-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield has reached 2.675%. This is a higher 20Y yield than at any other point this century.

The last close at this level was in July 1999. The 20Y JGB is up almost 229bp over the past four yearsโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ”ฃ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”ฃ
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INTELRUNNER
Gallup asked Ukrainians: which of the following statements about the war with Russia comes closest to your personal views?
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Both charts illustrate how many unauthorized abandonments of a unit or post there were (in red) in the Ukrainian Armed Forces. They also show the smaller number of confirmed desertions (in blue).

The first chart is line graph with monthly data, and the second is a bar graph with yearly data. Itโ€™s clear these statistics have only gone up with each year the war has pressed onโ€ฆ

In the first 7 months of this year, Ukraine has officially experienced 15,310 desertions and 109,906 unauthorized abandonments.

This trend accelerated through 2024 and quite a bit by the autumn, as can be seen on the first graph. Since December, the AFU is losing 690 soldiers per day.

โœˆ๏ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ’ฃ
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