INTELRUNNER
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Intel & data mostly via charts in economics, markets, politics, war, business, trade, international relations, etc.

Generally ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ but I do get around.

Nothing is financial advice...
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท The 5 & 10 Year Bond Yields for France & Greece, with spreads charted beneath. Bet you didnโ€™t think youโ€™d see the Greeks borrowing money at a cheaper rate than the French in this lifetimeโ€ฆ ๐Ÿ”ฃ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”ฃ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ง

30-year government bond yields in the US, Germany, Japan, UK, Italy and Spain, in percent interest.

๐Ÿ”ค CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”ค
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Action in the stock indices turned negative today (except in the $DJI, which eked out the slightest of positive returns while the $NDX took a beating).

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Direct foreign investment in Latin America ๐ŸŒ CHART WATCH ๐ŸŒ
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ด๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ Whatโ€™s the growth outlook in Latin America this year?

โฌ†๏ธBest Outlooks: Argentina leads with 5.5% expected growth, followed by the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Panama, and Paraguay

โฌ‡๏ธWorst Outlooks: Venezuela lags with -4% growth anticipated, followed by Mexico, who is treadunf water, and Bolivia around 1%.

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Dallas Cowboys are still the most valuable football team in Americaโ€ฆ

๐Ÿˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿˆ
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INTELRUNNER
Palantir charts. โ—๏ธ CHART WATCH โ—๏ธ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Palantirโ€™s valuation is a serious outlier. It doesnโ€™t mean itโ€™s totally outlandish.

With America moving into state capitalism and future administrations being unlikely to roll it back, shady contractors like $PLTR are likely going to be rolling in it.

๐Ÿ”ค๐Ÿ”ค CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”ค๐Ÿ”ค
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The S&P 500 ($SPX) and the CNN Fear & Greed Index back to July 2021โ€ฆ ๐ŸŒ CHART WATCH ๐ŸŒ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The CNN Fear & Greed Index slips back into neutral territory (55).

๐Ÿ“Š CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“Š
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INTELRUNNER
Hedge funds & other large speculators are even more short than they were 3 weeks ago (despite that healthy dip on the 1st).
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The cumulative speculative short on American small caps has become enormous.

๐Ÿ”ฅ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”ฅ
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INTELRUNNER
Central banksโ€™ gold demand & the spot price of gold. ๐Ÿช™ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿช™
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Dollar Index ($DXY) remains strongly inversely correlated with the price of gold.

๐Ÿ’ฒ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿช™
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ The main equity index of Israel ($TA35) has appreciated 75.8% in 666 days since October 8th. In Dollar terms, itโ€™s almost double at 98.16%. It has largely been a relentless climb for the Israeli market (it did fall a little over 5% during the short-livedโ€ฆ
๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฑ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ธ According to Digital Information World, the Gaza โ€œWarโ€ has the โ€œweakest protectionsโ€ for journalists, which have been killed in higher numbers than the much larger, longer, and more evenly balanced conflicts listed here (the World Wars, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Afghanistan War, the Ukraine War, etc.).

For example, in most wars, a vest labeled โ€œjournalistโ€ or โ€œmediaโ€ in big black block letters is a protection. In Gaza, itโ€™s a target. Generally the death of a journalist is an unfortunate accident; as far as Israel is concerned, itโ€™s a bullseye. UNESCO has confirmed at least 47 of these were killed while actively reporting.

The Committee to Protect Journalists notes this is the deadliest period in their record & that deliberate targeting of media is a violation of international law. Reporters Without Borders said Gaza was the scene of a โ€œmassacre of journalists.โ€ The Independent Commission for Human Rights is calling for ICC investigations.

๐Ÿ”ป CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”ป
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Two-thirds of the investible economy is set to be unlocked for 401(k) savings by a new US executive order opening up private markets to workers.

This is a good thing overall. It will reduce the concentration of capital in a handful of public megacaps (Apple stock is treated like a savings account these days, and thatโ€™s an insane product of current regulations & standard financial advice).

There are, however, concerns about transparency risk (these companies often update valuations quarterly), more substantial & multi-layered fees, and less liquidity. Informed consent must be integrated into many applications of thisโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The tenth decile was the only negative decile yesterday.

This means there was strong breadth in the market despite the mega caps suffering.

๐Ÿ”บ๏ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”บ๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The ratio of the Leading Economic Index relative to the Coincident Economic Index is at historic lows, excelled only by 1981-2 & 2007-9.

In the past, these levels have marked the terminus of recessions.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“‰
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INTELRUNNER
Nvidia ($NVDA) has a larger share of the ACWI World Index than any one of these countries and several combinations of thereof.
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Nvidia has broken the upward trend line stretching back to Liberation Day. It more than doubled in price over the period, extending over $4 trillion in market cap in July.

Now, with $NVDA more highly valued than the entire S&P 500 and possessing a larger share of the ACWI World Index than numerous major countries (like Japan, China, or France & Germany combined), it may be time for a correction.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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INTELRUNNER
Will solar repeat its Trump I performance? Itโ€™s up 30% since Inauguration Day
๐ŸŒ ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ A global index of clean energy stocks & the S&P 500 index in the United States.

The renewable sector seems to be in significant trouble. While solar broke out 6 weeks ago and renewables have seen some mean reversion lately, growth remains dependent on public expenditure (contrary to umpteen governmentsโ€™ predictions).

Wherever the subsidies have been pulled, the market share instantly begins to shrink. Green energy just doesnโ€™t measure up yet, and pretending otherwise is digging a deeper hole with no exit strategyโ€ฆ

โ˜€๏ธ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ”˜
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INTELRUNNER
The renewable sector seems to be in significant trouble.
๐ŸŒ Energy consumption across the world by energy type, from smallest to largest:

6. Hydro
5. Nuclear
4. Renewables
3. Natural Gas
2. Coal
1. Oil

Oil, coal, and natural gas are the Big 3 and represent over 80% of all energy consumed.

โšก๏ธ CHART WATCH โšก๏ธ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ US Composite PMI and Price Pressures

๐Ÿ“‰ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ Foreign buyers of treasuries down, active Tether addresses way up.

Is Tether the new key marginal buyer of treasuries?

๐Ÿค‘ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿค‘
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๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ S&P 500 Historical Performance Post Jackson Hole

This annual Fed Chairman speech often makes waves.

Powell said this morning that the "shifting balance of risks" to employment and inflation "may warrant adjusting our policy stance."


โœ‚๏ธ CHART WATCH โœ‚๏ธ
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๐ŸŒ Asking both men & women in Europe: would you fight for your own country?

The highest in Europe: ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ฎ (74%), ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท (73%), ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฆ (62%), ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ & ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช (58%)

The lowest in Europe: ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ (15%), ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช (18%), ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช (19%), ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น (20%), ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ (22%)

๐Ÿช– CHART WATCH ๐Ÿช–
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INTELRUNNER
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ JPMorganโ€™s market cap surpasses the combined value of Citigroup, Bank of America, and Wells Fargo. ๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ The Invesco KBW Bank ETF is 20ยข shy of new highsโ€ฆ

The top 3 holdings in $KBWB are massive banks $GS, $JPM, and $MS, but institutions like State Street ($STT) & Capital One ($COF) also make the top 10.

๐Ÿ“ˆ CHART WATCH ๐Ÿ“ˆ
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