🇺🇦 In a recent poll, Gallup asked Ukrainians: which of the following statements about the war with Russia comes closest to your personal views?

🔽 24% chose “Ukraine should continue fighting until it wins the war” (down from a 2/3rds supermajority in the early part of the war, the hawks lost their majority in mid-2023 and now only a quarter—mostly located deep in Western Ukraine—wish to continue the fight)

🔼 69% believe “Ukraine should seek to negotiate an ending to the war as soon as possible” (interestingly, this position represented about a quarter of the population early in the war, but now 7 in 10 Ukrainians want a negotiated peace)

⏹ 7% refused or said they “didn’t know” (5-10% range, indecision/refusal peaked in 2023-4 and dropping since)

📉 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸🇩🇪🇯🇵🇮🇹🇪🇸🇬🇧

30-year government bond yields in the US, Germany, Japan, UK, Italy and Spain, in percent interest.

🔤 CHART WATCH 🔤

🇺🇸 Action in the stock indices turned negative today (except in the $DJI, which eked out the slightest of positive returns while the $NDX took a beating).

📊 CHART WATCH 📊

🇦🇷🇩🇴🇬🇹🇵🇦 What’s the growth outlook in Latin America this year?

⬆️Best Outlooks: Argentina leads with 5.5% expected growth, followed by the Dominican Republic, Guatemala, Panama, and Paraguay

⬇️Worst Outlooks: Venezuela lags with -4% growth anticipated, followed by Mexico, who is treadunf water, and Bolivia around 1%.

📊 CHART WATCH 📊

🇺🇸 The Dallas Cowboys are still the most valuable football team in America…

🏈 CHART WATCH 🏈

🇺🇸 Palantir’s valuation is a serious outlier. It doesn’t mean it’s totally outlandish.

With America moving into state capitalism and future administrations being unlikely to roll it back, shady contractors like $PLTR are likely going to be rolling in it.

🔤🔤 CHART WATCH 🔤🔤

🇺🇸 The CNN Fear & Greed Index slips back into neutral territory (55).

📊 CHART WATCH 📊

🇺🇸 The cumulative speculative short on American small caps has become enormous.

🔥 CHART WATCH 🔥

🇺🇸 The Dollar Index ($DXY) remains strongly inversely correlated with the price of gold.

💲 CHART WATCH 🪙

🇮🇱🇵🇸 According to Digital Information World, the Gaza “War” has the “weakest protections” for journalists, which have been killed in higher numbers than the much larger, longer, and more evenly balanced conflicts listed here (the World Wars, the Korean War, the Vietnam War, the Afghanistan War, the Ukraine War, etc.).

For example, in most wars, a vest labeled “journalist” or “media” in big black block letters is a protection. In Gaza, it’s a target. Generally the death of a journalist is an unfortunate accident; as far as Israel is concerned, it’s a bullseye. UNESCO has confirmed at least 47 of these were killed while actively reporting.

The Committee to Protect Journalists notes this is the deadliest period in their record & that deliberate targeting of media is a violation of international law. Reporters Without Borders said Gaza was the scene of a “massacre of journalists.” The Independent Commission for Human Rights is calling for ICC investigations.

🔻 CHART WATCH 🔻

🇺🇸 Two-thirds of the investible economy is set to be unlocked for 401(k) savings by a new US executive order opening up private markets to workers.

This is a good thing overall. It will reduce the concentration of capital in a handful of public megacaps (Apple stock is treated like a savings account these days, and that’s an insane product of current regulations & standard financial advice).

There are, however, concerns about transparency risk (these companies often update valuations quarterly), more substantial & multi-layered fees, and less liquidity. Informed consent must be integrated into many applications of this…

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 The tenth decile was the only negative decile yesterday.

This means there was strong breadth in the market despite the mega caps suffering.

🔺️ CHART WATCH 🔺️

🇺🇸 The ratio of the Leading Economic Index relative to the Coincident Economic Index is at historic lows, excelled only by 1981-2 & 2007-9.

In the past, these levels have marked the terminus of recessions.

📈 CHART WATCH 📉

🇺🇸 Nvidia has broken the upward trend line stretching back to Liberation Day. It more than doubled in price over the period, extending over $4 trillion in market cap in July.

Now, with $NVDA more highly valued than the entire S&P 500 and possessing a larger share of the ACWI World Index than numerous major countries (like Japan, China, or France & Germany combined), it may be time for a correction.

📈 CHART WATCH 📈

🌐 🇺🇸 A global index of clean energy stocks & the S&P 500 index in the United States.

The renewable sector seems to be in significant trouble. While solar broke out 6 weeks ago and renewables have seen some mean reversion lately, growth remains dependent on public expenditure (contrary to umpteen governments’ predictions).

Wherever the subsidies have been pulled, the market share instantly begins to shrink. Green energy just doesn’t measure up yet, and pretending otherwise is digging a deeper hole with no exit strategy…

☀️ CHART WATCH 🔘

🌐 Energy consumption across the world by energy type, from smallest to largest:

6. Hydro
5. Nuclear
4. Renewables
3. Natural Gas
2. Coal
1. Oil

Oil, coal, and natural gas are the Big 3 and represent over 80% of all energy consumed.

⚡️ CHART WATCH ⚡️

🇺🇸 US Composite PMI and Price Pressures

📉 CHART WATCH 📈

🇺🇸 S&P 500 Historical Performance Post Jackson Hole

This annual Fed Chairman speech often makes waves.

Powell said this morning that the "shifting balance of risks" to employment and inflation "may warrant adjusting our policy stance."

✂️ CHART WATCH ✂️

🌍 Asking both men & women in Europe: would you fight for your own country?

The highest in Europe: 🇫🇮 (74%), 🇹🇷 (73%), 🇺🇦 (62%), 🇷🇺 & 🇸🇪 (58%)

The lowest in Europe: 🇳🇱 (15%), 🇩🇪 (18%), 🇧🇪 (19%), 🇮🇹 (20%), 🇪🇸 (22%)

🪖 CHART WATCH 🪖