IRANIAN REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS SAY THEY TARGETED U.S. AIRCRAFT CARRIER LINCOLN WITH 4 BALLISTIC MISSILES - STATE MEDIA

US MILITARY: AIRCRAFT CARRIER LINCOLN NOT HIT BY IRAN. THE MISSILES LAUNCHED DID NOT EVEN COME CLOSE

US SAYS THREE SERVICE MEMBERS KILLED IN ACTION, FIVE WOUNDED AS PART OF OPERATION EPIC FURY: INFINITYHEDGE

TRUMP ON OIL PRICES, STRAIT OF HORMUZ CONCERNS: I'M NOT CONCERNED ABOUT ANYTHING. I JUST DO WHAT'S RIGHT. AT THE END, IT WORKS OUT: INFINITYHEDGE

U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT AUTHORIZES DEPARTURE OF NON-EMERGENCY DIPLOMATS AND FAMILY MEMBERS FROM QATAR DUE TO SAFETY RISKS: INFINITYHEDGE

CLAUDE DOWN: INFINITYHEDGE

OPENAI AGREED TO ANY LAWFUL USE STANDARD WITH PENTAGON AFTER CLAIMING RED LINES ON MASS SURVEILLANCE AND AUTONOMOUS WEAPONS, SOURCES SAY: INFINITYHEDGE

SOURCES TOLD THE VERGE THAT THE PENTAGON DIDN’T BUDGE. OPENAI AGREED TO FOLLOW LAWS THAT HAVE ALLOWED FOR MASS SURVEILLANCE IN THE PAST, WHILE INSISTING THEY PROTECT ITS RED LINES

FORMER OPENAI HEAD OF POLICY RESEARCH MILES BRUNDAGE SAYS EMPLOYEES SHOULD ASSUME OPENAI CAVED AND FRAMED IT AS NOT CAVING, SCREWED ANTHROPIC

PENTAGON OFFICIAL JEREMY LEWIN CONFIRMS OPENAI DEAL IS SAME COMPROMISE THAT ANTHROPIC WAS OFFERED AND REJECTED

OPENAI AGREEMENT ALLOWS PENTAGON TO BUY BULK LOCATION DATA FROM DATA BROKERS AND BUILD PROFILES OF AMERICAN CITIZENS FROM PUBLICLY AVAILABLE DATA

TRUMP: WE HAVEN’T EVEN STARTED HITTING IRAN HARD. THE BIG WAVE HASN’T EVEN HAPPENED: CNN

TRUMP: THE BIG ONE IS COMING SOON: INFINITYHEDGE

TRUMP TO DISCUSS IRAN STRIKES AT 11 A.M.

U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT URGES AMERICANS TO 'DEPART NOW' NOW FROM THE COUNTRIES BELOW USING AVAILABLE COMMERCIAL TRANSPORTATION, DUE TO SERIOUS SAFETY RISKS: INFINITYHEDGE

BAHRAIN
EGYPT
IRAN
IRAQ
ISRAEL
JORDAN
KUWAIT
LEBANON
OMAN
QATAR
SAUDI ARABIA
SYRIA
UAE
YEMEN

CENTCOM SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ NOT CLOSED DESPITE IRGC PRONOUNCEMENT. IRAN IS NOT PATROLLING THE STRAIT AND NO SIGN YET OF IT MINING THE STRAIT: INFINITYHEDGE

THE UAE'S AIR DEFENSES ARE CURRENTLY DEALING WITH A BARRAGE OF BALLISTIC MISSILES COMING FROM IRAN: INFINITYHEDGE

4 SUSPECTED IRANIAN DRONES STRUCK "AT OR NEAR" THE US EMBASSY IN RIYADH: CNN

FIRE AT U.S. EMBASSY IN RIYADH AFTER BLAST: INFINITYHEDGE

U.S. STATE DEPARTMENT AUTHORIZES DEPARTURE OF NON-EMERGENCY DIPLOMATS AND FAMILY MEMBERS FROM UAE DUE TO SAFETY RISKS: INFINITYHEDGE

U.S. EMBASSY IN RIYADH WARNS OF IMMINENT ATTACK IN DHAHRAN, EASTERN SAUDI ARABIA: INFINITYHEDGE

SUMMARY: DAY 4 OF STRIKES ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST: INFINITYHEDGE

Markets:
- Nasdaq 100 Futures extend drop to 2.5%, S&P 500 Futures fall 2%
- After Initial surge, Gold drops to $5,100
- Oil extends gain to 15%, DXY up 1%
- Brent Crude hits $85, first time since July 2024
- EU gas prices surge by 90% following QatarEnergy halt

Military Action:
- Explosions/interceptions continued across Israel, Iran, Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus and UAE, including at U.S. bases across the region, conflict getting closer to more energy facilities NOW
- Iran fired 1200+ drones and 300+ missiles
- Iran has launched 186 missiles and 812 drones at the UAE alone, To put it in context: in the entire 12-day Iran/Israel war, Iran fired 550 missiles & ~1k drones at Israel
- 6 Americans killed so far in action; additional losses expected
- Kuwait mistakenly shot down 3 American F-15 jets
- Strait of Hormuz effectively closed; 3k ships stuck in the region
- drones hit the US Embassy in Riyadh, Trump vowed retaliation
- Drones intercepted at UK military base in Cyprus
- Iran won't negotiate with the US, security chief said
- Macron says France will increase its arsenal of nuclear warheads

Numbers By Country:
- Kuwait: 178 ballistic missiles, 384 drones intercepted
- UAE: 169 of 182 missiles intercepted (rest landed in the sea); 645 drones intercepted, 44 hit within state territory
- Bahrain: 70 missiles, 76 drones intercepted
- Qatar: 101 of 104 missiles intercepted; 24 of 39 drones intercepted; 2 Iranian SU-24 bomber aircraft shot down
- Saudi Arabia: 8 drones intercepted near Riyadh & Al-Kharj; US Embassy hit by suspected Iranian drones

Cost Problem:
- Saturation attacks aim to overwhelm air defenses and drain interceptors, $20–50k Shahed drones vs. $4M interceptors put the US and partners on the wrong side of the cost curve per BBG
- Patriot missiles achieving over 90% interception rates, but at an unsustainable cost ratio
- Qatar's Patriot interceptor stocks will last just 4 days at current rate of use per BBG
- UAE has requested medium-range air defense assistance; Qatar seeking help countering drones specifically
- Both Iran & the US may run low on weapons within days or weeks - whoever lasts longer gains a serious advantage: infinity hedge

Energy Impact:
- QatarEnergy, world's largest LNG producer halted production & also stopped downstream production including urea, polymers, methanol, and aluminum due to military attacks
- Saudi Aramco halted key Ras Tanura refinery after drones intercepted
- Aramco exploring plan to export oil via Red Sea to avoid Hormuz
- Russia's Rosatom stopped Operations in Iran
- Major fire at UAE's Fujairah oil-trading hub from falling drone debris
- Production suspended at Iraq's largest oil field, Shafaq
- The US has days — not weeks — to reopen the Strait of Hormuz; once trapped tankers fill up, regional oil producers will be forced to slow output, compounding the price spike (because their is no storage): infinityhedge
- IEA said ready to help stabilize oil market, noting that member countries hold over a billion barrels in emergency stockpiles

Diplomatic & Civilian:
- US State Department orders departure of non-emergency personnel and family members from Bahrain, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, and UAE
- US also alert all Americans in 14 Middle East countries (including Israel) to leave, 300k people
- Emirates extends flight suspensions to and from Dubai until March 4; some travelers rerouting via Oman and Saudi Arabia
- Airlines globally have canceled 12,300+ flights as conflict spreads

TRUMP SAYS US NAVY TO BEGIN ESCORTING TANKERS THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ IF NECESSARY

TRUMP SAYS US TO PROVIDE INSURANCE FOR TRADE THROUGH GULF: INFINITYHEDGE

SMOKE SEEN RISING FROM AREA NEAR U.S. CONSULATE IN DUBAI: INFINITYHEDGE

DRONE STRIKE AT OR NEAR THE US CONSULATE IN DUBAI: INFINITYHEDGE

A SUSPECTED IRANIAN DRONE ATTACK HIT THE CIA’S STATION IN SAUDI ARABIA: WAPO: INFINITYHEDGE

SOUTH KOREA’S KOSPI INDEX CLOSES 12% LOWER, BIGGEST LOSS ON RECORD: INFINITYHEDGE

MIDDLE EAST WAR UPDATE: INFINITYHEDGE

Markets:
- Kospi plunged ~12%, most on record
- Topix was sank ~4%; Taiwan slump ~4.35%
- Bitcoin up 6%
- Several Chinese financial firms scaling back exposure to Middle Eastern debt

Action:
- US, Israel have struck over 2k Iranian target sites, 17 Iranian ships have been sunk or destroyed since the start of the war
- Iran has launched ~500+ ballistic missiles (slowing now) & ~2k drones total so far, Estimates suggest that Iran has over 65k drones
- Iran is close to selecting a new Supreme Leader
- CIA reportedly working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of fomenting a popular uprising inside Iran (experts fear Turkey intervention)
- Saudi Arabia, Dubai, etc shot down more drones/missiles last night
- Hezbollah has entered the war
- Houthis threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait & resume attacks on Saudi Arabia if they joins war directly (Some the countries are considering retaliation strikes on Iran)
- Saudi Aramco's Ras Tanura refinery was attacked second time in two days

Casualties:
- Iran: 787 killed (150+ kids) in Iran
- Lebanon: 54, Israel: 10, UAE: 3, Kuwait: 3, Bahrain: 1, Oman: 1

Attacks on US:
- US Consulate in Dubai hit by two UAVs (one day after embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait were also targeted)
- US has closed its embassies in Riyadh, Kuwait City, and Beirut
- US closes Gulf embassies, Evacuating Government personnels from Saudi Arabia, Oman, Pakistan, Cyprus, UAE, QATAR, etc and also sending planes to evacuate nationals from Middle East

UAE Crackdown: If you post any photos/videos of the strikes, you may face prison or fines per reports

Strait of Hormuz & Oil:
- Trump says the US will start escorting vessels & provided insurance guarantees but an US official said no availability for naval escorts right now, Escorting tankers through Hormuz is likely to fail, US-led coalition couldn't keep Red Sea shipping above 50% against the Houthis, Trump is working against the laws of physics, sound military doctrine, and fundamental economics here. And IRGC stated it won't let a single drop of oil leave the region and warned ships not to transit Hormuz. Though US says not a single Iranian ship underway in the Arabian Gulf, Hormuz, or Gulf of Oman BUT still it's effectively closed as of now
- War risk insurance now 1% of a ship's value, vs. less than a tenth of that in peacetime, some insurers pulling back entirely
- JPM: If Hormuz does not reopen within 21 days, upstream shut-ins could begin, those fears appear to be materializing sooner than expected: infinityhedge
- GS: If Hormuz volumes remain flat for an additional 5 weeks, Brent could hit $100, triggering demand destruction
- Iraq has begun shutting output at its biggest oil fields as storage fills due to tanker shortage (we warned about this in last war update); could extend to two-thirds of Iraq's total output if Hormuz remains closed
- Oil price shocks will actually hurt the US more than China or the EU
- Aramco exploring delivering more cargoes to Yanbu on the Red Sea to bypass Hormuz: infinityhedge

BE: prolonged Hormuz closure could push Brent to $108/barrel, adding ~0.8ppt to US inflation & pushing it above 3%, well above the Fed's 2% target
- EU faces a GDP blow of ~0.6% (euro area) and ~0.5% (UK); inflation impulse of ~1.1ppt for both

BE: Four War Scenarios:
1. War, intensified energy attacks (Low–Medium likelihood) → $108/barrel → Significant inflation, major growth blow
2. War, limited energy attacks (Medium–High) → $80/barrel → Modest inflation, manageable growth impact
3. Ceasefire (Medium–High) → $65/barrel → Limited economic impact
4. Islamic Republic collapses (Low) → $65/barrel → Limited economic impact

GOLD IS BEING OFFERED AT $30 PER OUNCE DISCOUNT IN DUBAI: BBG

TRADERS OFFERING STEEP DISCOUNTS AS BUYERS UNWILLING TO PAY HIGH SHIPPING, INSURANCE COSTS WITH NO DELIVERY GUARANTEE AND TO AVOID INDEFINITE STORAGE COSTS: INFINITYHEDGE

QATAR'S ENERGY MINISTER SAYS THAT THE WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST COULD BRING DOWN THE ECONOMIES OF THE WORLD

QATAR SAYS GULF MAY BE FORCED TO STOP ENERGY EXPORTS IN WEEKS

QATAR SAYS OIL COULD SOAR TO $150 WITHIN TWO TO THREE WEEKS: FT

QATAR SAYS PRODUCTION IN QATAR WILL NOT RESTART UNTIL THERE IS A COMPLETE CESSATION OF HOSTILITIES: INFINITYHEDGE

Energy fund manager Eric Nuttall: We are experiencing the largest loss of oil supply in history (3X bigger than the 1973 Arab oil embargo).

If the Strait remains closed we are losing ~450MM Bbls per month. That exceeds the entirety of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve. This is not some small supply interruption...this is historic in magnitude and consequence

U.S. Treasury eased oil sanctions on the Russia, allowing Indian refineries to buy the millions of barrels of Russian crude on floating storage until early April

Markets, Policymakers and Public drastically underreacting to the severity of the situation