birth rate collapse & economic utility of a birth

this is pretty novel regarding birth rates

https://x.com/object_zero_/status/1994562241299976222?s=46&t=

[BR]

Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke

I've read substacks that were inspired off this book, so I figured why not read the foundational piece

overall well written for a nonfiction book as most parts had well weaved stories to make it less dry

an underrated shift in life's perspective that can potentially alleviate a lot of dilemmas and decision making

main takeaways:
- think probalistically in %, instead of absolutes
- incorporating uncertainty in the way we think is beneficial long term
- humans' default setting is to believe that what we hear is true
- self-serving bias is when we take credit for the good, but blame bad luck for the bad

fav quotes:

Experience is not what happens to a man; it is what a man does with what happens to him.

The secret is to make peace with walking around in a world where we recognize that we are not sure and that's okay.

LIFE IS POKER.

4.5/5
recommended read

+creating a culture within groups to call each other out on biases, whining, and to reinforce open-minded debates by introducing uncertainty into statements (speak in %, not binary)

with this, I have completed 5 books in a span of ~3 weeks, accomplishing my original book goal for 2025 (cover to cover)

~3 weeks to almost read the same number of books as i've read in ~9 months, i guess being more intentional is key

the past weeks i've become so absorbed into reading that i would be reading in supermarkets, busstops, public transport, and even during meals (alone), etc.

hope to make this a sustainable habit instead of a short sprint, but i'm happy to tick off a 2025 NYR and am ready to adjust for 2026

will continue clearing my booklist, keep the recs coming!

here is a similar read that i've shared before regarding life is poker^

https://www.robin-guo.com/p/life-is-poker-not-chess

icymi

I think my argument is somewhat abstract but stems down to this;

Some level of irrational optimism/delusion is needed for society and a select group of ppl to be comfortable to risk-take as they can believe a 'story'.

E.g you can't tell army that there is odds of losing this conflict, have to upkeep morale. Or that certain things/inventions are not possible back in historical times. E.g. you need people who are deluded enough to believe that we can invent flight, undersea cables, wireless communications, gunpowder, etc.

When things are viewed probabilistically, the best and most rational minded ppl will be assigned towards taking +EV bets. but what happens is that the majority/mean is likely to be become overly risk-adverse (same as how normies cannot deal with loss in investing) which hampers societal/future developments

such a great point here

if all of society shifts toward +ev bets, then no one would be left to further humanity by taking a chance on irrational bets

a certain level of delusion is necessary

thinking in bets pushes for a rational operator, but not everyone should be or that we shouldn't be too rational all the time

a good mix of rationality v gut instinct in life would be good

what are the optimal levels? don't think anyone knows yet

read the discussion here: https://t.iss.one/c/2522076793/944

[cc]

ChatGPT’s most brutal truths in psychology

1. your brain lies to you constantly
2. what you avoid controls you
3. you are not who you think you are
4. who you surround yourself with reprograms you
5. you are wired for emotion, built to regulate it
6. you will suffer either way — so suffer for something worthwhile

https://www.instagram.com/p/DRh9TW2CQ_U/?igsh=MmdndWFheG1nMnBq

[BR]

Normal People by Sally Rooney

one of the first romance fiction that i’ve read and i could not really get into it

read 75% and found myself starting to speed through the remaining chapters (~3 days to finish)

i guess maybe this genre just isn’t for me

it was interesting to read the dynamics of the two main characters, albeit frustrating

i guess that’s just normal people like you and i

2/5
not my type of read

micro-adventures

another way of saying inject chaos/novelty into everyday life to be happier

if the quality of your life is measured in experiences, how would you rate yours?

https://youtu.be/5svTYvXA5Jw?si=FrHG9JFMBIXM9i0J

i really liked this discussion that i chanced upon in a book subreddit

giving up on a book just means we’re not in the right place for it yet

nothing wrong w that at all!

“i will work so hard that there is no room for failure”

https://youtu.be/rOacmGLwrD4?si=G9JxtOhTaBQBayV0

Resentment is like lighting your house on fire to annoy your neighbour with the smoke.

great quote from the sitcom ‘Old dog, new tricks’ on Netflix

great show, highly recommended

how to trick your brain into doing difficult things

https://www.brainhealthdecoded.com/p/how-to-trick-your-brain-into-doing

summarised form:

https://x.com/drdominicng/status/1996210397419045243?s=46&t=nluSw7cwYGx8zFxfoYi5Iw

most are tricks that i’ve read before in habit books like atomic habit, eat that frog, etc. years ago

wanted to log it here for archiving and to serve as a refresher for myself

[BR]

The Alchemist by Paulo Coelho

picked it from a community recommendation here

this book talks a lot about fate or "Maktub"

once you're able to speak the language of the world, the world is yours

main takeaways:
- be present enough to observe the world. learn the language and recognise the omens.
- everyone is born with a Personal Legend that we were meant to fulfil
- hints of manifestation (law of attraction)
- in your pursuit of greatness, seldom will people understand
- everyone has a central role in history, and normally he doesn't know it
- everything happens for a reason

fav quotes:

when you want something, all the universe conspires in helping you to achieve it.

at a certain point in our lives...our lives become controlled by fate. That's the world's greatest lie.

4/5
easy and light read

[cc]

we’re a mosaic of the people we’ve loved

https://www.instagram.com/p/DR5WlWMEiAt/?igsh=OWlnM2VxZnVwZjVu