Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.1% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (19.1%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (46.2%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (31.8%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (50.0%)
AI: Fewer cuts priced after strong GDP growth expectations.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.1% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (19.1%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (46.2%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (31.8%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (50.0%)
AI: Fewer cuts priced after strong GDP growth expectations.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 45.6% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (14.1%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (44.4%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (27.8%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (50.0%)
AI: Weekly decline persists; strong capital goods orders lowered cut odds.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 45.6% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (14.1%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (44.4%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (27.8%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (50.0%)
AI: Weekly decline persists; strong capital goods orders lowered cut odds.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.8% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (11.8%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (41.1%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.8%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (50.0%)
AI: Lower jobless claims shift cuts later; total cuts odds up.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.8% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (11.8%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (41.1%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.8%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (50.0%)
AI: Lower jobless claims shift cuts later; total cuts odds up.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.8% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (12.8%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (38.0%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.8%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (50.0%)
AI: Trend steady; Hammack trims March odds, gold lifts January.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.8% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (12.8%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (38.0%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.8%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (50.0%)
AI: Trend steady; Hammack trims March odds, gold lifts January.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.2% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (15.8%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (34.8%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.8%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.5%)
AI: Small probability changes following strong GDP report temper multi-cut expectations.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.2% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (15.8%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (34.8%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.8%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.5%)
AI: Small probability changes following strong GDP report temper multi-cut expectations.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.2% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (13.9%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (34.3%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.9%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (51.0%)
AI: Holiday sales strength trimmed January, June cut probabilities slightly today.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.2% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (13.9%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (34.3%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.9%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (51.0%)
AI: Holiday sales strength trimmed January, June cut probabilities slightly today.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.8% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (13.7%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (34.4%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (30.4%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (51.5%)
AI: No changes.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.8% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (13.7%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (34.4%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (30.4%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (51.5%)
AI: No changes.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.9% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (13.7%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (34.1%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (32.5%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (51.5%)
AI: Slight April rise in cut odds; weak confidence drives.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 46.9% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (13.7%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (34.1%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (32.5%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (51.5%)
AI: Slight April rise in cut odds; weak confidence drives.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 51.5% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (13.7%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (36.8%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (32.2%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.5%)
AI: Rate-cut odds rose; dovish minutes extend weekly uptrend. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/final-fed-minutes-2025-shed-light-policy-divisions-2025-12-30/?utm_source=openai))
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 51.5% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (13.7%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (36.8%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (32.2%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.5%)
AI: Rate-cut odds rose; dovish minutes extend weekly uptrend. ([reuters.com](https://www.reuters.com/business/final-fed-minutes-2025-shed-light-policy-divisions-2025-12-30/?utm_source=openai))
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 51.1% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (11.5%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (35.4%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (33.5%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.5%)
AI: No changes.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 51.1% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (11.5%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (35.4%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (33.5%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.5%)
AI: No changes.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 50.8% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (11.2%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (35.2%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (36.5%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (50.5%)
AI: April cut odds rise on cautious Fed minutes, June slips.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 50.8% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (11.2%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (35.2%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (36.5%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (50.5%)
AI: April cut odds rise on cautious Fed minutes, June slips.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 52.1% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (11.3%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (35.7%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (33.2%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (48.5%)
AI: Cutsβ₯4 52.1%, April down; PMI strength trimmed early cuts.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 52.1% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (11.3%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (35.7%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (33.2%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (48.5%)
AI: Cutsβ₯4 52.1%, April down; PMI strength trimmed early cuts.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 52.0% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (10.2%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (36.9%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (33.3%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (48.0%)
AI: No changes.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 52.0% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (10.2%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (36.9%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (33.3%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (48.0%)
AI: No changes.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 48.4% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (10.2%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (37.6%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (35.5%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (48.0%)
AI: Strong payrolls report lowers 2025 cut odds; slight spring upticks.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 48.4% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (10.2%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (37.6%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (35.5%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (48.0%)
AI: Strong payrolls report lowers 2025 cut odds; slight spring upticks.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2025
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 45.7% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (10.2%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (40.2%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (39.5%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.0%)
AI: Kashkariβs caution lifted early-cut probabilities, trimmed totals; upward trend.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 45.7% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (10.2%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (40.2%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (39.5%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.0%)
AI: Kashkariβs caution lifted early-cut probabilities, trimmed totals; upward trend.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 42.0% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
π January: β₯ 25 bps cut (10.1%)
π March: β₯ 25 bps cut (39.1%)
π April: β₯ 25 bps cut (38.2%)
π June: β₯ 25 bps cut (51.5%)
AI: β₯4 cuts 42%; ongoing decline; inflation, Kashkari remarks weigh.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 42.0% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
π January: β₯ 25 bps cut (10.1%)
π March: β₯ 25 bps cut (39.1%)
π April: β₯ 25 bps cut (38.2%)
π June: β₯ 25 bps cut (51.5%)
AI: β₯4 cuts 42%; ongoing decline; inflation, Kashkari remarks weigh.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 42.4% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (8.2%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (39.8%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (36.2%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.5%)
AI: Slight dip in January cut odds after strong services data.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 42.4% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (8.2%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (39.8%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (36.2%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.5%)
AI: Slight dip in January cut odds after strong services data.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 39.6% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (2.9%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.9%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (31.6%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.0%)
AI: Odds fell after weak jobs data suggested longer Fed pause.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 39.6% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (2.9%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.9%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (31.6%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.0%)
AI: Odds fell after weak jobs data suggested longer Fed pause.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 39.3% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (3.9%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (30.4%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (31.7%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.0%)
AI: No changes.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 39.3% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (3.9%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (30.4%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (31.7%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (52.0%)
AI: No changes.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 39.5% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (4.4%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.5%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (30.3%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (53.0%)
AI: 4+ cuts 39.5%; June 53%; early cuts fade on jobs.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 39.5% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (4.4%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.5%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (30.3%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (53.0%)
AI: 4+ cuts 39.5%; June 53%; early cuts fade on jobs.
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Fed Rate Cuts in 2026
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 37.7% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (6.3%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.6%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (28.9%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (51.5%)
AI: Odds dip after Williams signals policy near neutral.
π’ β₯ 4 cuts: 37.7% probability
Upcoming Fed Decisions
ποΈ January: β₯ 25 bps cut (6.3%)
ποΈ March: β₯ 25 bps cut (29.6%)
ποΈ April: β₯ 25 bps cut (28.9%)
ποΈ June: β₯ 25 bps cut (51.5%)
AI: Odds dip after Williams signals policy near neutral.
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