I normally avoid any kind of scaremongering when I am not qualified to have an expert opinion. But I've now seen footage of Italian hospitals amongst other media.
This is very real. I am not required to quarantine until I go back to Australia but have been 95% self-isolating for about 10 days now as I am higher risk. Please everyone take care of yourselves and of each other, it is not only about you, but also about the much more at risk and elderly community.
This is very real. I am not required to quarantine until I go back to Australia but have been 95% self-isolating for about 10 days now as I am higher risk. Please everyone take care of yourselves and of each other, it is not only about you, but also about the much more at risk and elderly community.
#BTC UPDATE - Random pump / short squeeze. Eagle eyed people could have taken the short entry you can see on the chart I posted yesterday. Now just need to see if this move can garner any follow up.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/cfJcWzvJ/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/cfJcWzvJ/
#ETH UPDATE - Yesterday slightly overshot my level, this time has undershot although nailed the level below and confluent with my thoughts a couple of posts ago about looking for a rejection at 139-140. As for BTC, need to watch whether this consolidates or continues to reject.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9HM0ThFX/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9HM0ThFX/
#COVID - Little bit more analysis here. Italy and Spain the rate of confirmed cases now appears to be decreasing slightly, hopefully as a result of successful isolation measures. I believe the US has had a surge today, so I am unsure if this data reflects that as yet - at this point the growth rate seems constant.
The rate of confirmed total cases is still increasing as is the death rate. Unfortunately I don't have the ability to geographically drill and slice the total data to delve further.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9Y8Qk5TB/
The rate of confirmed total cases is still increasing as is the death rate. Unfortunately I don't have the ability to geographically drill and slice the total data to delve further.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/9Y8Qk5TB/
India and Australia's cases remain low as a total but growth rate is increasing for both. UK cases are also still relatively low however deaths make up 5% of the total which I believe is comparable to Spain and Italy when their confirmed cases were at similar levels.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zheueWqB/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/zheueWqB/
Back in Australia, settling in again with jet lag. First lesson learned: don't cook bacon wearing a bikini!
#BTC UPDATE - Sorry for lack of updates - due to a. travelling, organising quarantine and general exhaustion and b. BTC being squished in a range for ages and not doing much exciting other than taking out stops in both directions intermittently.
So my last post we had a good initial rejection but held the 6150 level, broke and held the 6377 level and have crawled sideways since then.
I am not entirely sure there is much point in TA right now since there is so much manipulation - walls pushed the price up from 6150 and there have been stacked buy and sell walls most of the time since then.
We do seem to be pushing more to the up side, although not breaking through with a swing failure on 25th, and HLs. I also thought earlier ltf I may have to flip bias to long as it seemed like we may turn 6775 to support however that has also failed.
My bias remains short and I am watching the rising wedge but it is increasingly hard to tell. Volume has been low and is decreasing which is typical towards the end of a pattern.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ewKZD8ty/
So my last post we had a good initial rejection but held the 6150 level, broke and held the 6377 level and have crawled sideways since then.
I am not entirely sure there is much point in TA right now since there is so much manipulation - walls pushed the price up from 6150 and there have been stacked buy and sell walls most of the time since then.
We do seem to be pushing more to the up side, although not breaking through with a swing failure on 25th, and HLs. I also thought earlier ltf I may have to flip bias to long as it seemed like we may turn 6775 to support however that has also failed.
My bias remains short and I am watching the rising wedge but it is increasingly hard to tell. Volume has been low and is decreasing which is typical towards the end of a pattern.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ewKZD8ty/
E.g. Looks like it should drop but there are walls at 6650, 6620, 6600, 6580, 6550, 6500 etc.!
Bitfinex walls get moved in and out frequently. Not entirely sure their purpose. I watched buy walls get sold into on Binance earlier - not sure if this is always true but those weren't spoof.
#BTC UPDATE - So this was yesterday's plan we had in premium after the drop.
For once, I drew a longer tf for it so people weren't expecting imminent drops but then it played out in a few hours anyway, with a wick straight into demand, an attempt to go higher again and then the deeper drop.
The final drop hasn't culminated in anything significant as yet and we are now back in consolidation on the level.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mKJPpfKD/
For once, I drew a longer tf for it so people weren't expecting imminent drops but then it played out in a few hours anyway, with a wick straight into demand, an attempt to go higher again and then the deeper drop.
The final drop hasn't culminated in anything significant as yet and we are now back in consolidation on the level.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/mKJPpfKD/
#BTC UPDATE - Ok looking again at htf, here's a view of the 3D so you can see where the major levels are coming from. Red 2017 bull wave, black 2018 bear wave, blue 2019 bull wave.
As I've said before I was wondering whether to discard the red due to newer waves since, however I am finding there is still validity so leaving for now.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/f0i1eOO8/
As I've said before I was wondering whether to discard the red due to newer waves since, however I am finding there is still validity so leaving for now.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/f0i1eOO8/
Htf directional probabilities right now. Facts -
👉 All time price is in a giant symmetrical triangle, LHs and HLs. (Broken on the log scale, borderline holding on linear scale.)
👉 Trend is down htf since June 2019. While we rallied this year we could not make a HH. To break trend:
✅ A new high must exceed 10600.
👉 Trend is up all time. To break long term trend:
❌ A new low must exceed 3100.
👉 The 70.7% fib at 5880 has been well-respected previously.
👉Price dropped to 3D demand at 3600 two weeks ago and bounced strongly to the 70.7 fib. It was briefly ltf resistance but was retaken and made support.
👉The range highlighted in pink running from the 61-70% fibs (5880-7680) had a concentration of activity in 2017-2018. Support was made around the 61.8% fib of the range at 6500 in Dec 2019.
👉 This week there is a clear rejection from supply at 6900 which is the mid point of the range (3D supply) however volume on the rejection is low.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/m9Iwl34J/
👉 All time price is in a giant symmetrical triangle, LHs and HLs. (Broken on the log scale, borderline holding on linear scale.)
👉 Trend is down htf since June 2019. While we rallied this year we could not make a HH. To break trend:
✅ A new high must exceed 10600.
👉 Trend is up all time. To break long term trend:
❌ A new low must exceed 3100.
👉 The 70.7% fib at 5880 has been well-respected previously.
👉Price dropped to 3D demand at 3600 two weeks ago and bounced strongly to the 70.7 fib. It was briefly ltf resistance but was retaken and made support.
👉The range highlighted in pink running from the 61-70% fibs (5880-7680) had a concentration of activity in 2017-2018. Support was made around the 61.8% fib of the range at 6500 in Dec 2019.
👉 This week there is a clear rejection from supply at 6900 which is the mid point of the range (3D supply) however volume on the rejection is low.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/m9Iwl34J/
Daily - as many analysts have observed we have now clearly broken the rising wedge, no matter which wicks it is drawn from!
Target for this is typically the height of the wedge at the start approx. 4500 - sometimes truncated to 80% or 4860. This also aligns with the pole flag length target. However in my experience BTC does not play these targets terribly accurately.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dx5UAlO1/
Target for this is typically the height of the wedge at the start approx. 4500 - sometimes truncated to 80% or 4860. This also aligns with the pole flag length target. However in my experience BTC does not play these targets terribly accurately.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/dx5UAlO1/
4h - Since demand is wide ranged on the daily I am looking at the 4h for more detail. I typically look for a full impulse retrace to demand at the start of the wave - in this case around 5960, which would be my first short target.
Barring some wicks to the left and a lot of manipulation on the order books it is unclear to me why price has chosen to bounce here in the low 6ks, although it is interesting to note we are on the 70% fib for the local impulse wave. We have definitely not seen the strength of the retest exhibited by ETH though.
The brown and purple local ranges look a bit off on the 4h but are well respected ltf so I am keeping them visible.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0uA9wijl/
Barring some wicks to the left and a lot of manipulation on the order books it is unclear to me why price has chosen to bounce here in the low 6ks, although it is interesting to note we are on the 70% fib for the local impulse wave. We have definitely not seen the strength of the retest exhibited by ETH though.
The brown and purple local ranges look a bit off on the 4h but are well respected ltf so I am keeping them visible.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0uA9wijl/