Fear among $BTC investors is cooling off after the correction
- Neutral funding rate
- Increasing open interest
- Increasing leverage trading
Quicktake | @cryptoquant_official
- Neutral funding rate
- Increasing open interest
- Increasing leverage trading
Quicktake | @cryptoquant_official
$BTC market is very uncertain right now.
Whale selling indicates a bear/fake-bull market, and retail selling implies a bull market. We're in neutral now.
Stop trade, be patient and wait for the next volatility.
Analyst: Ki Young Ju | @cryptoquant_official
Whale selling indicates a bear/fake-bull market, and retail selling implies a bull market. We're in neutral now.
Stop trade, be patient and wait for the next volatility.
Analyst: Ki Young Ju | @cryptoquant_official
Miners keep holding $BTC.
Bitcoins periodically sent to exchanges from miners are decreasing. Chinese regulations can force miners to sell their rigs but not Bitcoin. If you look at the data for each miner, it has been a decreasing trend since March this year.
(Disclaimer: I'm not a Bitcoin maxi)
Analyst: Ki Young Ju | @cryptoquant_official
Bitcoins periodically sent to exchanges from miners are decreasing. Chinese regulations can force miners to sell their rigs but not Bitcoin. If you look at the data for each miner, it has been a decreasing trend since March this year.
(Disclaimer: I'm not a Bitcoin maxi)
Analyst: Ki Young Ju | @cryptoquant_official
BTC Liquidations a Clue to Positioning
The two charts below show the past 6 days of aggregate $BTC long and short liquidations every hour.
One thing to note, which shouldn't be a surprise given how negative funding has been, is that even as price has drifted lower, there have been more short liquidations than longs.
Two ways to interpret this:
1. Market is much more short than long here and max pain is to squeeze them higher.
2. There's more long liquidity lower, likely $29k - $30k, since we haven't raided those longs yet.
Analyst: joemccann| @cryptoquant_official
The two charts below show the past 6 days of aggregate $BTC long and short liquidations every hour.
One thing to note, which shouldn't be a surprise given how negative funding has been, is that even as price has drifted lower, there have been more short liquidations than longs.
Two ways to interpret this:
1. Market is much more short than long here and max pain is to squeeze them higher.
2. There's more long liquidity lower, likely $29k - $30k, since we haven't raided those longs yet.
Analyst: joemccann| @cryptoquant_official
Bearish signals from $BTC NVM ratio
- $BTC NVM ratio exceeded 1.5 again after the 17th of April
About NVM ratio
Live Chart | @cryptoquant_official
- $BTC NVM ratio exceeded 1.5 again after the 17th of April
About NVM ratio
Live Chart | @cryptoquant_official
China's ban on $BTC mining
To put the recent hash rate drop into perspective, we can look at the Historical Volatility index (standard deviation from 14-day mean value); HV (14). Historically speaking, we have not seen high volatility in the 14-day hash rate yet (overall integrity is intact). Still, a 25% drop in hash rate compared to its 14-day-moving average value (ROC (14)) is a bearish sign for the market (short-term negative effect on market sentiment).
Analyst: CryptoVizArt| @cryptoquant_official
To put the recent hash rate drop into perspective, we can look at the Historical Volatility index (standard deviation from 14-day mean value); HV (14). Historically speaking, we have not seen high volatility in the 14-day hash rate yet (overall integrity is intact). Still, a 25% drop in hash rate compared to its 14-day-moving average value (ROC (14)) is a bearish sign for the market (short-term negative effect on market sentiment).
Analyst: CryptoVizArt| @cryptoquant_official
I hate to say this, but it seems like the $BTC bear market confirmed.
Too many whales are sending $BTC to exchanges.
Analyst: Ki Young Ju | @cryptoquant_official
Too many whales are sending $BTC to exchanges.
Analyst: Ki Young Ju | @cryptoquant_official
BTC highest spot inflow mean since March 2020
I'm not in the business of creating fear by using March 2020 comparisons, but I will call something out when I see it, and yesterday we saw the highest daily spike in BTC Inflow Mean to Spot Exchanges since the March 2020 crash.
Also, a 7 day moving average of spot exchange netflows just turned significantly positive for the first time since the distribution in the 50k range.
Analyst: TemptingBeef | @cryptoquant_official
I'm not in the business of creating fear by using March 2020 comparisons, but I will call something out when I see it, and yesterday we saw the highest daily spike in BTC Inflow Mean to Spot Exchanges since the March 2020 crash.
Also, a 7 day moving average of spot exchange netflows just turned significantly positive for the first time since the distribution in the 50k range.
Analyst: TemptingBeef | @cryptoquant_official
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What's the impact of China's broader ban on miners?
- $BTC Hash rate is below 105B for two days in a row.
- The number of daily issued $BTC reduced.
- As a result, $BTC Puell Multiple hit an 8-month low, 0.81.
Data Guide: Puell Multiple| @cryptoquant_official
- $BTC Hash rate is below 105B for two days in a row.
- The number of daily issued $BTC reduced.
- As a result, $BTC Puell Multiple hit an 8-month low, 0.81.
Data Guide: Puell Multiple| @cryptoquant_official
Sable coins issuance events
We saw a lot chatter about how bullish the stable coin market looks like, I disagree.
lets look at the stables issuance events as an example (Sables m.cap chart from 2017-2018 is telling a similar story).
After the bottom of the last bear market (2018-2019) we saw a steady rise in issuance events at the top (28/06/19) of this bullish period there was a large issuance event (the two big spikes in July-August 2019 are due to USDT ETH issuance). it looks like the same is happening right now.
Analyst: YHRW80 | @cryptoquant_official
We saw a lot chatter about how bullish the stable coin market looks like, I disagree.
lets look at the stables issuance events as an example (Sables m.cap chart from 2017-2018 is telling a similar story).
After the bottom of the last bear market (2018-2019) we saw a steady rise in issuance events at the top (28/06/19) of this bullish period there was a large issuance event (the two big spikes in July-August 2019 are due to USDT ETH issuance). it looks like the same is happening right now.
Analyst: YHRW80 | @cryptoquant_official
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BTC short-term reserves trending upwards
BTC downtrend was broken and we are now trending sideways/upwards (in the short-term), meaning that we will possibly see the price action around 30k or below.
In the other hands, stablecoins reserves are trending upwards (mostly because of BTC selling) and not triggered by stablecoin inflow
Onchain for dummies:
1.) BTC reserves in CEX's
Trending upwards = Bearish
Trending downwards = Bullish
2.) Stablecoins
STC + BTC Reserves increasing = Bearish
Constant Inflow = Bullish
Analyst: elcryptotavo| @cryptoquant_official
BTC downtrend was broken and we are now trending sideways/upwards (in the short-term), meaning that we will possibly see the price action around 30k or below.
In the other hands, stablecoins reserves are trending upwards (mostly because of BTC selling) and not triggered by stablecoin inflow
Onchain for dummies:
1.) BTC reserves in CEX's
Trending upwards = Bearish
Trending downwards = Bullish
2.) Stablecoins
STC + BTC Reserves increasing = Bearish
Constant Inflow = Bullish
Analyst: elcryptotavo| @cryptoquant_official
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Deeply negative BTC netflows to/from exchanges
The last few days/weeks Bitcoin's price is ranging between $30k to $40k. In several hours the BTC Netflow to/from exchanges is deeply negative. It seems some whales are accumulating!
Analyst: maartun| @cryptoquant_official
The last few days/weeks Bitcoin's price is ranging between $30k to $40k. In several hours the BTC Netflow to/from exchanges is deeply negative. It seems some whales are accumulating!
Analyst: maartun| @cryptoquant_official
Bitcoin in a bear market? On-Chain Data doesn't support the narrative.
Narratives about a multi-year bear market grow stronger, especially since Bitcoin dropped below $30k, temporarily. But looking at BTC reserves across all exchanges, we can see that the amount of BTC on exchanges drops again. At the same time, Net Flow shows accumulation of more than 5k multiple times within hours.
Together with a low SSR (more buying power on the sidelines) and an overall declining Whale ratio (one exception), the case for a multi-year bear market seems to be fragile.
Analyst: DecenTrade | @cryptoquant_official
Narratives about a multi-year bear market grow stronger, especially since Bitcoin dropped below $30k, temporarily. But looking at BTC reserves across all exchanges, we can see that the amount of BTC on exchanges drops again. At the same time, Net Flow shows accumulation of more than 5k multiple times within hours.
Together with a low SSR (more buying power on the sidelines) and an overall declining Whale ratio (one exception), the case for a multi-year bear market seems to be fragile.
Analyst: DecenTrade | @cryptoquant_official