2. External attachment that slows down projectiles results in the same form of the ellipse.

There are two trajectories, steeper and flatter, that aim at the same distance.

Flatter trajectories at short distances give the ellipse elongated in the direction of fire; at long distances, the ellipse is elongated in the perpendicular direction.
Steeper trajectories in both cases result in the elongated ellipse perpendicular to the fire direction.

I calculate the maximal deviation in the direction of fire (blue line) and the perpendicular direction (orange curve) as a function of the firing range.
For flatter trajectories, depending on the range, one can be larger than the other.

For steeper trajectories, the perpendicular deviation is always larger. So the ellipse is always elongated along in a perpendicular direction.

Corollary: The observed ellipse elongated in the perpendicular direction can be the result of:
1. Long-range fire with any trajectory.
2. Short-range fire at a steeper trajectory.

Hence, the form of the ellipse does not prove that the fire was at a long distance.

Finally, there are ways to slow down the projectile by attaching external caps that increase air resistance. This will reduce the maximal range of fire. Consequently, this makes results in the squeezed form of ellipses at relatively close distances.

Moreover, anomalously large deviations >500m, can be the consequence of these external caps.

https://twitter.com/georgewbarros/status/1606489851129479170

2. We expanded assessed Russian advances northwest of Kurdiumivka, Donetsk Oblast, given geolocated combat footage published on December 23 showing Ukrainian forces firing on Russian infantry in a woods northwest of Kurdiumivka. RU likely manuever along the reservoir / tree line.

https://twitter.com/AricToler/status/1607406830153596930

Some of the members of this sabotage group were very tight with the Bratstvo movement and its founder, Dmytro Korchinsky. In the early days of the war he formed the St. Mary's Battalion (famously self-described as the "Christian Taliban"), and more recently the Bratstvo Battalion https://twitter.com/CalibreObscura/status/1607371900778577920

One of the Ukrainians killed in Bryansk, Maxim "Nepipivo" ("Don't Drink Beer"), was apparently in St. Mary's Battalion before it disbanded in 2016.

"Svyatosha" (Yury Horovets) was also in St. Mary's Battalion.

Bratstvo is a far-right movement that operates military, political, and civic wings -- basically a smaller (but older) Azov.

Much like Azov, they have virtually no electoral support, but they have an outsized influence in other facets of the public sphere.