Although other missile types (48N6-series and possibly others) also use a very similar design, these aren't available to Ukrainian forces.

It's important to note here that this ID is only of this fragment; we can't be sure if nothing else landed or precisely how this happened.

For comparison - the end seal of the 48N6DM SAM's rocket motor. As you can see, it is nearly identical to the fragment found in Poland.

Of course, the whole incident appears to be a tragic accident.

https://twitter.com/CITeam_ru/status/1314299888088346624

Упавшая сегодня в Дагестане ракета опознана как ракета «земля-воздух» из семейства С-300. Опознавший её пользователь твиттера @ain92ru предполагает, что она вероятно была выпущена комплексами С-300ПМУ-2 Азербайджана.

https://twitter.com/seungminkim/status/1592745092112347136

WASHINGTON (AP) — US officials: Initial findings suggest missile that hit Poland was fired by Ukrainian forces at incoming Russian missile.

https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1592486075301339137

Scoop: The US has intelligence that suggests Russia delayed formally announcing its withdrawal from Kherson in part to avoid giving the Biden administration a political “win” ahead of the midterm elections. Biden hinted at this last week. https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/us-intelligence-russia-withdrawal-midterm-election/index.html

Senior Russian officials discussed the midterms as a factor during deliberations about the withdrawal announcement, & waiting until after Americans had cast their votes was considered a "pre-planned condition.” With @KatieBoLillis @ZcohenCNN https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/politics/us-intelligence-russia-withdrawal-midterm-election/index.html

This is supported by the fortifications mapped by @COUPSURE. Most of the fortifications aren't directly next to the river but are pulled a bit back from the shore to where the ground rises slightly from the river lowlands.

The same applies to the area around Kakhovka. 3/

https://twitter.com/Faytuks/status/1592593288196149249

BRAKING: Hungary's prime minister Orban convenes a defense council meeting due to the "shutdown of the Friendship oil pipeline and the missile strike in Poland", the Prime Minister's press chief says

https://www.origo.hu/itthon/20221115-orban-viktor-vedelmi-tanacs.html

Обесточены значительные части электросетей во Львове, Ровно, Харькове, Житомире.

В Киеве аварийные отключения. Часть Львова и Харькова – без электроенергии. Житомир – полностью без света.

https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1592966202955075586

Responding to Zelensky’s remarks tonight, a NATO country diplomat told me: “This is getting ridiculous. The Ukrainians are destroying [our] confidence in them. Nobody is blaming Ukraine and they are openly lying. This is more destructive than the missile.” https://www.ft.com/content/d417ea8f-62ee-4bb8-966b-a85a98fc6b3a

https://twitter.com/Mortis_Banned/status/1593233326403637250

Суд упоминает, что у следствия есть оригиналы снимков следа ракеты «Бука» над Торезом, фотографии не были отредактированы, местность соответствует пуску из района Первомайского, время совпадает с местом крушения MH17.

https://twitter.com/Mortis_Banned/status/1593233872095174656

Есть также фото из Снежного, направления на след на этих двух фото пересекаются к западу от Первомайского.

Суд приводит показания свидетеля, который был в поле южнее Снежного и слышал гусеничную технику, далее видел пуск ракеты и сбитие, а затем «Бук» без одной ракеты.

Shellings reported by the UA general staff for the last 24 hours. Nothing out of the ordinary.

Svatove
AFU main focus seems to be north and south around
Novoselivs'ke and Ploshchanka. The progress is slow at best at this point. With reinforcements arriving for both sides, it's not unlikely we will be at a stand still for a longer period of time.

Siversk
RuAF stepped up the activity in this area, I believe this is to interfere with a protentional AFU attack on Kreminna from the south. Russian key position here is Verkhn'okam'yanka, which provides plant of cover and vantage points with open downhill terrain to the west.

Bakhmut
Increased intensity in this area today after a calmer period. The Russian attempts to assault head on in to Bakhmut is complete madness in my opinion. There was a video released yesterday with about 25-30 dead Russians at the Bakhmut approach.

Donetsk - Zaporizhzhia
There were no reports of RU attacks on this section which is unusual. I suspect RuAF are preparing for an attacking with the coming dry weather. I believe we might see some large scale attempt by Russia to advance in the areas marked by magenta arrows.