Off Leash update 5 March

IRAN
•A U.S. Navy submarine sank Iran's IRIS Dena off the coast of Sri Lanka yesterday, marking the first time since 1982 (Argentine Cruiser Belgrano) that a sub-fired torpedo sunk an enemy ship. Sri Lanka's navy rescued 32 Iranian sailors and recovered 87 bodies from the IRIS Dena, which SecDef Hegseth called Iran's "prize warship." Another 60 who were aboard the frigate are still missing.
•Iran vowed retaliation, and state media claimed that its navy carried out that threat this morning when it hit a U.S. tanker in the northern Persian Gulf with a missile, causing a fire and an oil spill. That report remains unconfirmed.
•Pres. Trump floated the idea of providing affordable insurance for shipping lines transiting the Strait of Hormuz, in an effort to reopen oil supply chains. One-third of seaborne crude and one-fifth of global gas pass through the Strait daily. Several marine insurers are reportedly in talks with the White House about possible facilities.
•In another indication that the war is far from over, there are few signs of the defections within the regime or the popular movements organizing to overthrow it that Israel hoped would materialize once its airstrikes delivered the first blows.
•Instead, U.S.-allied Iranian Kurdish forces in Iraq are preparing for a possible ground incursion into the north - perhaps in coordination with Israel's Mossad and the U.S. CIA.
•Analysts suggest that the new front could distract and draw out some Iranian forces, but doubt it could topple the regime. Iran preemptively targeted the Kurdish force's headquarters in northern Iraq.

UKRAINE
•Russia blamed Ukraine for sinking a liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker carrying about 61,000 tons of LNG in the eastern Mediterranean on Tuesday.
•The Kremlin claimed that Ukrainian forces launched "uncrewed sea drones" from the Libyan coast at the Arctic Metagaz tanker, which appears to have been part of its shadow fleet transporting sanctioned oil.
•Meanwhile, Pres. Zelensky said that U.S.-Russia-Ukraine ceasefire talks will resume as soon as the situation in the Middle East permits U.S. attention to shift elsewhere.

CHINA
•China's rubber-stamp parliament, the National People's Congress, set the country's 2026 GDP growth target at 4.5-5.0% yesterday, marking the first time in over 30 years that Beijing has aimed for less than 5% growth.
•Citing an analyst, the NYT noted that "the lower target signals that [Beijing] is willing to tolerate slower near-term growth while it focuses on longer-term structural fixes."

DRC
•Congolese authorities reported that a landslide at DRC's Rubaya coltan mine killed at least 200 artisanal miners, including around 70 children.
•The M23 - which controls Rubaya - disputed Kinshasa's official account, saying that it was government "bombings" - not a landslide - that caused the mine to collapse, and claiming that "simply about five" people died - not 200.
•[Notably, the M23 didn't dispute that a landslide was the cause of a nearly-identical disaster in late January that killed roughly the same number as the government says died this time.]

SITREP IRAN:

Many have asked me various questions about the current war in Iran. One of the main questions is how long do you think this war will last? First off, war is brutal, vicious, filled with irony and uncertainty and always about strategy. However, strategy sometimes goes unnoticed or overlooked because the tendency is to stare at the immediate instead of the longer term consequences.

Discerning the long term strategy in warfare is challenging for even those who pay close attention. Trying to read the mind of the opposing side’s leadership is not easy nor is it an exacting science.

Next, I don’t believe that @realDonaldTrump wanted this war, not one bit. But like history teaches, you may not want war but war wants you.

In history, war is the norm and peace is the aberration. I wish that wasn’t true but in this, the 21st Century, the United States of America has been at war since 2001 (9/11). It’s not always us who start them, but they never seem to end.

So what does this have to do with Iran? Will the war in Iran end anytime soon?

The ongoing US-led military campaign against Iran, which began on February 28, 2026, does not appear likely to conclude within four weeks or anytime soon based on current developments.

The conflict, dubbed Operation Epic Fury by the Trump administration, has entered its fifth day as of March 5 and shows signs of escalation rather than de-escalation, with strikes intensifying across Iran, retaliatory attacks spreading to US assets in the region, and involvement expanding to areas like Lebanon, the Persian Gulf, and even the Indian Ocean. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has stated that operations are "accelerating, not decelerating," with the US "just getting started" and aiming for "complete control" of Iranian airspace in the coming days, while additional assets are being deployed. Casualties are mounting—over 1,000 reported killed in Iran, including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other officials, alongside US and allied losses—and Iran has closed the Strait of Hormuz, mobilized forces, and launched counterstrikes on US bases, embassies, and allied sites in countries like the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait.

The Senate's failure to pass a war powers resolution on March 4 allows President Trump unchecked authority to continue, and he has indicated that the full scope and duration of operations remain uncertain, though some reports suggest the initial phase could last 4-5 weeks if objectives like degrading Iran's military are met. However, with no negotiations underway, regional allies like Hezbollah engaging, and warnings of deeper strikes into Iran, the situation points to a potentially prolonged and widening war rather than a quick resolution.

Bottom line kiddies, settle in for a long war I guess. 

Pray I’m wrong and pray for our men and women in uniform as well as our political leadership.

Green party communist with a Muslim wife.