IRAN CONFLICT DAY 5, THIS JUST ESCALATED TO A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT LEVEL:

Read every single line, this is not slowing down.

– A U.S. submarine TORPEDOED an Iranian warship, the IRIS Dena, in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Sri Lanka. 1,000 miles from Iran. First time a U.S. sub has sunk an enemy ship with a torpedo since WORLD WAR II. Over 100 crew members missing. 80+ k*lled. Pentagon released the video.

– NATO shot down an Iranian ballistic missile headed toward TURKEY. It crossed Iraqi and Syrian airspace before NATO intercepted it. Debris fell in Hatay Province. First time a NATO member state has been drawn into this conflict. NATO officially condemned Iran.

– Hegseth says the U.S. and Israel expect “complete control of Iranian skies” within days. Said Iranian leaders will be “looking up and seeing only U.S. and Israeli airpower every minute of every day, until we decide it’s over.”

– His exact words: “Death and destruction from the sky, all day long.”

– Joint Chiefs Chairman Caine says the U.S. will now “strike progressively DEEPER into Iranian territory.” Confirmed 20+ Iranian naval vessels sunk including one submarine. Iran’s navy is effectively gone.

– An Israeli F-35 shot down an Iranian fighter jet over Tehran. First air-to-air k*ll of a manned aircraft since 1985.

– The IDF has put 300 Iranian missile launchers out of commission.

– Iran’s IRGC announced that GROUND FORCES have entered battlefield operations. 230 drones deployed. They also claim a naval operation targeting U.S. military ships.

– QatarEnergy declared FORCE MAJEURE, releasing itself from all contractual obligations. That means LNG supply contracts to Europe and Asia are now suspended indefinitely.

– A Malta-flagged cargo ship was struck by TWO missiles near the Strait of Hormuz. Oman’s navy rescued the 24-member crew.

– Iran warned it will target “ALL economic centres in the region” if U.S.-Israeli attacks continue.

– Qatar arrested 10 suspected IRGC spies operating inside the country.

– Israeli intelligence says Iran was within TWO WEEKS of enriching uranium to weapons-grade (90%) before the strikes began. They say that’s why they had to act now.

– Mehrabad Airport in Tehran was struck. Iranian Air Force base in Shiraz hit. Weapons depots destroyed in Vardavard and Dezful.

– The head of the IRGC’s Special Operations Division, Rahman Moghadam, has reportedly been eliminated.

– Iran’s banks are now restricting cash withdrawals. Internet is blocked. State media is telling the public Iran is winning.

– Russia warned that Iran’s Bushehr nuclear power plant is under threat from strikes. Said explosions have been heard near its perimeter.

– Democrats are sounding the alarm after a 3-hour briefing by Rubio, warning the U.S. could be drawn into a prolonged GROUND WAR.

– 60,000 people have been displaced in Lebanon in just days. Israel has issued evacuation orders for hundreds of villages.

– Hegseth closed his briefing with this: “Iran tried to k*ll President Trump. Trump got the last laugh.”

This is no longer just airstrikes.

Submarines, NATO, ground forces, nuclear facilities, force majeure, supply chains collapsing.

Day 5. And they say they’re “just getting started.”

This matters for markets around the world. The outcome of this war will tell us exactly where we’re heading.

The ground war is happening

The plan is the Kurds and the Azeris will push from the northwest. Azerbaijan has already brought military assets to the front.

Balochs will push from the southeast along with the gulf states to try to create a buffer zone along the gulf and stop the drone attacks. The United States and Israel will support from the air and with special forces.

The Israelis see this as a chance to slaughter the Persians once and for all. It's no coincidence the war started on a Jewish holiday commemorating a Persian slaughter. The Persians have an existential fight for their survival.

Iran will attempt to use its geographic advantage to make the ground war extremely costly. Mountains and deserts. Iran can mobilize a very large army - the coalition plan depends on air superiority being able to suppress the Iranian defense and allow coalition ground forces to advance.

Now where could this plan go awry? If the Iranians are completely alone with no allies, then things look grim for them in the long term. They can, however, inflict catastrophic damage on the infrastructure of the Middle East and potentially keep Hormuz effectively closed for months or more. But that doesn't change the long-term outcome.

What could change the long-term outcome? Involvement from Turkey, Russia, or Pakistan, as well as instability in Iraq and Syria. As mentioned before, there were also some large Shia populations the Middle East. The Turks have been in conflicts with the Kurds for quite a while. They may take advantage of movements by the Kurds for their own purposes. Likewise, Azerbaijan has been a thorn in the side for the Russians recently, and violence has escalated between the two. If the Azeris go into Iran with their army, it could present an opportunity for Russia. The Russians would love to have an open land corridor directly to Iran. Despite the Baloch animosity with Iran, Pakistan as a whole has shown some willingness to support the Iranians. Historically, Iran and Pakistan have both worked together to suppress the Baloch minority.

In summary, the coalition plan depends on Iran being isolated, which may not be the case once the ground war starts and opportunities for other regional powers open up on the map.

The plan is also highly dependent on US-Israeli air supremacy and the ability of the US and Israel to replace anti-air defenses as well as offensive stockpiles. With both the US and Israel already running low on key offensive weapons such as tomahawks and defensive weapons, the ability of the US and Israel to establish or sustain air superiority over the entire Middle Eastern theater is questionable. Remember, it's not enough to simply maintain control over Iran, which they have not been able to do yet. They need to watch out as well for threats in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, the West Bank, and Gaza.

In summary, this is a complex war. It's much more complex than the war against Saddam, which the US arguably never won (Iraq is full of factions to this day, including powerful Iranian militias). What's clear is that expectations of business as normal any time soon are delusionally optimistic, which is why energy majors and industrial concerns are shutting off production all together. Qatar LNG is 20% of the world's LNG supply - they've shut down completely. Restart is a month long process. A number of internationals have evacuated their staff. Force majeures have been declared across a number of industries. One of the biggest oil refineries on earth has shut down.

Don't plan on this resolving quickly! There will be significant impacts especially in energy, aluminum, and chemicals. Inflation globally could drive higher and entire industries in some countries will be demolished.