$MU - BOFA: MICRON PULLBACK IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY
BofA reiterated its Buy rating and $1,550 price target on Micron, calling the recent selloff an "enhanced buying opportunity."
The bank expects memory pricing to normalize from 2027–2028, but says fundamentals remain strong.
BofA forecasts FY2028 EPS of ~$150, with a bear case of ~$100, still far above the prior cycle peak of ~$12.
It also sees China's CXMT as "not a threat in AI" and says strong AI memory demand should continue supporting pricing.
(@WalterBloomberg)
BofA reiterated its Buy rating and $1,550 price target on Micron, calling the recent selloff an "enhanced buying opportunity."
The bank expects memory pricing to normalize from 2027–2028, but says fundamentals remain strong.
BofA forecasts FY2028 EPS of ~$150, with a bear case of ~$100, still far above the prior cycle peak of ~$12.
It also sees China's CXMT as "not a threat in AI" and says strong AI memory demand should continue supporting pricing.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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S&P 500 BREAKS OUT, RECORD HIGH IN SIGHT
The S&P 500 has regained momentum, closing just 0.12% below its record high after a nearly 4% three-day rally.
Mega-cap stocks are leading the advance, with the Magnificent Seven posting their strongest three-day gain since May 2025.
Technically, the index has broken above a multi-month consolidation pattern, signaling buyers are back in control.
A new record could open the door toward the 7,900–8,000 range, while support sits near 7,560.
(@WalterBloomberg)
The S&P 500 has regained momentum, closing just 0.12% below its record high after a nearly 4% three-day rally.
Mega-cap stocks are leading the advance, with the Magnificent Seven posting their strongest three-day gain since May 2025.
Technically, the index has broken above a multi-month consolidation pattern, signaling buyers are back in control.
A new record could open the door toward the 7,900–8,000 range, while support sits near 7,560.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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SHIPPING ANALYSTS QUESTION HORMUZ RECOVERY
Shipping analysts are more cautious than U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic.
While Bessent said a U.S.-Iran deal could come "today or tomorrow," analysts report fewer than 10 ships transiting daily. Kpler recorded just nine crossings on Sunday, including only two tankers.
Estimated crude flows remain at 3–5 million bpd, far below the pre-conflict 20 million bpd. Saudi Aramco says replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months, even if the strait reopens immediately.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Shipping analysts are more cautious than U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic.
While Bessent said a U.S.-Iran deal could come "today or tomorrow," analysts report fewer than 10 ships transiting daily. Kpler recorded just nine crossings on Sunday, including only two tankers.
Estimated crude flows remain at 3–5 million bpd, far below the pre-conflict 20 million bpd. Saudi Aramco says replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months, even if the strait reopens immediately.
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U.S. JOLTS JOB OPENINGS 7.359 MLN IN JUNE (CONSENSUS 7.400 MLN)
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OIL PRICES EXTEND LOSSES TO HIT SESSION LOWS; BRENT LAST DOWN 4.7%, WTI DOWN 5.4%
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RUBIO: THERE'S BEEN PROGRESS MADE IN TALKS IRAN TO REOPEN TRAIT OF HORMUZ
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RUBIO SAYS NOTHING FINAL ON HORMUZ, HOPING AGREEMENT WILL HAPPEN VERY SHORTLY
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MORGAN STANLEY: OPEN AI MODELS EXPAND THE MARKET
Morgan Stanley says the rise of open-weight AI models such as Kimi K3, Qwen, and Llama should accelerate AI adoption by lowering costs, not hurt the industry's leaders.
The bank argues cheaper AI will drive broader enterprise usage, citing the "Jevons Paradox."
Morgan Stanley expects open and closed models to coexist, with 63% of enterprises already using both.
It says Nvidia remains the biggest winner regardless of which AI model architecture prevails, as demand for AI computing infrastructure continues to grow.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Morgan Stanley says the rise of open-weight AI models such as Kimi K3, Qwen, and Llama should accelerate AI adoption by lowering costs, not hurt the industry's leaders.
The bank argues cheaper AI will drive broader enterprise usage, citing the "Jevons Paradox."
Morgan Stanley expects open and closed models to coexist, with 63% of enterprises already using both.
It says Nvidia remains the biggest winner regardless of which AI model architecture prevails, as demand for AI computing infrastructure continues to grow.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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CIO WARNS AI RALLY RELIES ON INVESTOR FAITH
Hirtle CIO Brad Conger warns the AI trade is entering a "kindness of strangers" phase, with hyperscalers increasingly relying on debt as free cash flow weakens.
He says investors are assuming cash flows will recover, calling that belief a possible "comfortable delusion."
AI-related debt has reached roughly $570B, with Citadel forecasting another $500B+ by 2028.
Conger also warns massive AI capex will weigh on earnings for years through higher depreciation expenses.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Hirtle CIO Brad Conger warns the AI trade is entering a "kindness of strangers" phase, with hyperscalers increasingly relying on debt as free cash flow weakens.
He says investors are assuming cash flows will recover, calling that belief a possible "comfortable delusion."
AI-related debt has reached roughly $570B, with Citadel forecasting another $500B+ by 2028.
Conger also warns massive AI capex will weigh on earnings for years through higher depreciation expenses.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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*IRAN WEIGHS ALLOWING EUROPE TO CLEAR MINES IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ
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IRAN MAY ALLOW EUROPE TO CLEAR HORMUZ MINES
Iran is reportedly considering allowing European countries to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a potential concession that could help restore shipping and revive U.S.-Iran peace talks.
The proposal remains under discussion and would require Iranian security guarantees, a durable ceasefire, and approval from the IRGC.
However, Iran continues to insist on controlling the strait and collecting transit fees, a key point of disagreement with the U.S.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Iran is reportedly considering allowing European countries to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a potential concession that could help restore shipping and revive U.S.-Iran peace talks.
The proposal remains under discussion and would require Iranian security guarantees, a durable ceasefire, and approval from the IRGC.
However, Iran continues to insist on controlling the strait and collecting transit fees, a key point of disagreement with the U.S.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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TRUMP ADMINISTRATION PREPARING TO SET PRICE FLOOR, TARIFFS ON IMPORTS OF POLYSILICON AND DERIVATIVE PRODUCTS USED IN CHIPS AND SOLAR PANELS-SOURCES
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HORMUZ ODDS IMPROVE
Prediction markets are increasingly pricing in a faster return to normal Strait of Hormuz shipping after reports Iran may allow European countries to clear sea mines.
Any deal still requires Iranian security guarantees, a lasting ceasefire, IRGC approval, and agreement over control of the waterway.
https://t.co/s99fSRHwIf
(@WalterBloomberg)
Prediction markets are increasingly pricing in a faster return to normal Strait of Hormuz shipping after reports Iran may allow European countries to clear sea mines.
Any deal still requires Iranian security guarantees, a lasting ceasefire, IRGC approval, and agreement over control of the waterway.
https://t.co/s99fSRHwIf
(@WalterBloomberg)
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U.S. EYES POLYSILICON PRICE FLOOR
The Trump administration is preparing a price floor and new tariffs on polysilicon and related products later this month, according to Reuters.
The move aims to protect U.S. producers Hemlock Semiconductor (Corning: $GLW) and Wacker Chemie (ETR: WCH) from growing Chinese competition and strengthen domestic supply chains for solar panels, semiconductors, AI, and energy.
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The Trump administration is preparing a price floor and new tariffs on polysilicon and related products later this month, according to Reuters.
The move aims to protect U.S. producers Hemlock Semiconductor (Corning: $GLW) and Wacker Chemie (ETR: WCH) from growing Chinese competition and strengthen domestic supply chains for solar panels, semiconductors, AI, and energy.
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IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON SAYS TALKS WITH OMAN OVER TRANSIT IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ CONTINUE - STATE MEDIA
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IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTER SPOKESPERSON SAYS TALKS WITH OMAN ASSESSED AS 'POSITIVE' AT BOTH TECHNICAL AND POLITICAL LEVELS - STATE MEDIA
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IRAN, OMAN REPORT PROGRESS ON HORMUZ TALKS
Iran's Foreign Ministry said negotiations with Oman on safe shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz are progressing positively.
The talks aim to establish a transit corridor that balances Iranian sovereignty with the national security interests of both countries. Tehran said technical and political discussions have been constructive, with the final agreement to be announced once negotiations conclude.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Iran's Foreign Ministry said negotiations with Oman on safe shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz are progressing positively.
The talks aim to establish a transit corridor that balances Iranian sovereignty with the national security interests of both countries. Tehran said technical and political discussions have been constructive, with the final agreement to be announced once negotiations conclude.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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$SPCX - SPACEX POSTS BIG REVENUE BEAT, AI LOSSES NARROW
Results
🔸Adj. EPS: -$0.09 vs. -$0.29 est.
🔸Revenue: $7.8B vs. $6.82B est. (+92% YoY)
🔸Adj. EBITDA: $3.5B vs. $2.0B est.
🔸AI Operating Loss: -$1.26B vs. -$2.39B est.
🔸Cash & Investments: $100B
🔸Backlog: $47.5B
🔸Segment Revenue: Connectivity $4.29B, AI $2.56B, Space $962M
🔸Net Loss: $541M
🔸Capex: $18.4B
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Results
🔸Adj. EPS: -$0.09 vs. -$0.29 est.
🔸Revenue: $7.8B vs. $6.82B est. (+92% YoY)
🔸Adj. EBITDA: $3.5B vs. $2.0B est.
🔸AI Operating Loss: -$1.26B vs. -$2.39B est.
🔸Cash & Investments: $100B
🔸Backlog: $47.5B
🔸Segment Revenue: Connectivity $4.29B, AI $2.56B, Space $962M
🔸Net Loss: $541M
🔸Capex: $18.4B
(@WalterBloomberg)
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