FED'S PAULSON: THIS IS A COMPLICATED TIME FOR MONETARY POLICY - CNBC
PAULSON: INFLATION IS TOO HIGH, WANTS TO BRING IT DOWN
PAULSON: NEED MILDLY RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY AND FED LIKELY HAS THAT NOW
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PAULSON: INFLATION IS TOO HIGH, WANTS TO BRING IT DOWN
PAULSON: NEED MILDLY RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY AND FED LIKELY HAS THAT NOW
(@WalterBloomberg)
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FED'S PAULSON: IF PROGRESS NOT MADE ON INFLATION, FED WILL NEED TO ACT
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MARKET MOVERS
🟢 UPGRADES
$PLTR: Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy
$REPL: Leerink Partners upgraded to Outperform; PT raised to $17 from $11
🔴 DOWNGRADES
$BOW: Deutsche Bank downgraded to Hold; PT raised to $34 from $31; Piper Sandler downgraded to Neutral; PT cut to $34 from $36; RBC downgraded to Sector Perform; PT cut to $34 from $38
$CI: Jefferies downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $307 from $336
$INTU: Truist Securities downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $350 from $410
$ITGR: Truist Securities downgraded to Hold; PT raised to $127 from $110
$LNTH: TD Cowen downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $102.50 from $110; Truist Securities downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $102.50 from $125
$NKE: JP Morgan downgraded to Underweight; PT cut to $40 from $47
$OLN: Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal Weight; PT cut to $20 from $25
$PVH: JP Morgan downgraded to Underweight; PT raised to $84 from $70
$WMT: Oppenheimer downgraded to Perform
COVERAGE INITIATIONS
$APG: Wells Fargo initiated with Overweight; PT $53
$CRWV: Piper Sandler initiated with Overweight; PT $151
$FTH: JonesTrading initiated with Buy; PT $55
$IPEX: Benchmark initiated with Buy; PT $14
$PDFS: Wells Fargo initiated with Equal Weight; PT $50
$SAIL: D.A. Davidson initiated with Neutral; PT $17
$SMC: TD Cowen initiated with Buy; PT $39
$VSH: Needham initiated with Buy; PT $45; Raymond James initiated with Outperform; PT $40
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🟢 UPGRADES
$PLTR: Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy
$REPL: Leerink Partners upgraded to Outperform; PT raised to $17 from $11
🔴 DOWNGRADES
$BOW: Deutsche Bank downgraded to Hold; PT raised to $34 from $31; Piper Sandler downgraded to Neutral; PT cut to $34 from $36; RBC downgraded to Sector Perform; PT cut to $34 from $38
$CI: Jefferies downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $307 from $336
$INTU: Truist Securities downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $350 from $410
$ITGR: Truist Securities downgraded to Hold; PT raised to $127 from $110
$LNTH: TD Cowen downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $102.50 from $110; Truist Securities downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $102.50 from $125
$NKE: JP Morgan downgraded to Underweight; PT cut to $40 from $47
$OLN: Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal Weight; PT cut to $20 from $25
$PVH: JP Morgan downgraded to Underweight; PT raised to $84 from $70
$WMT: Oppenheimer downgraded to Perform
COVERAGE INITIATIONS
$APG: Wells Fargo initiated with Overweight; PT $53
$CRWV: Piper Sandler initiated with Overweight; PT $151
$FTH: JonesTrading initiated with Buy; PT $55
$IPEX: Benchmark initiated with Buy; PT $14
$PDFS: Wells Fargo initiated with Equal Weight; PT $50
$SAIL: D.A. Davidson initiated with Neutral; PT $17
$SMC: TD Cowen initiated with Buy; PT $39
$VSH: Needham initiated with Buy; PT $45; Raymond James initiated with Outperform; PT $40
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THERE IS NO REAL LONG-TERM SUBSTITUTE FOR BLACK SEA PORTS FOR GRAIN EXPORTS, UKRAINE'S FARM MINISTER TELLS REUTERS
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UKRAINE: NO REPLACEMENT FOR BLACK SEA GRAIN EXPORTS
Ukraine's farm minister says there is "no real long-term substitute" for Black Sea ports for grain exports.
Alternative export routes will not reach full operational capacity before the end of August and can handle only around half of Ukraine's normal export volumes.
The minister said Ukrainian farmers are already facing an average 30% drop in crop prices, while losses from Russian strikes on Black Sea infrastructure could reach $1.5B–$3B.
He warned the attacks threaten global food security and will drive consumer food prices higher.
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Ukraine's farm minister says there is "no real long-term substitute" for Black Sea ports for grain exports.
Alternative export routes will not reach full operational capacity before the end of August and can handle only around half of Ukraine's normal export volumes.
The minister said Ukrainian farmers are already facing an average 30% drop in crop prices, while losses from Russian strikes on Black Sea infrastructure could reach $1.5B–$3B.
He warned the attacks threaten global food security and will drive consumer food prices higher.
(@WalterBloomberg)
ING: BITCOIN'S LONG-TERM TREND REMAINS BEARISH
ING says Bitcoin's long-term downtrend remains intact despite a modest rebound from recent lows.
The bank sees strong resistance between $65,670 and $69,900 and doubts Bitcoin can break above that range sustainably.
ING warns a drop below the key $54,450 support level would trigger another long-term sell signal and reinforce the prevailing bearish trend.
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ING says Bitcoin's long-term downtrend remains intact despite a modest rebound from recent lows.
The bank sees strong resistance between $65,670 and $69,900 and doubts Bitcoin can break above that range sustainably.
ING warns a drop below the key $54,450 support level would trigger another long-term sell signal and reinforce the prevailing bearish trend.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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$MU - BOFA: MICRON PULLBACK IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY
BofA reiterated its Buy rating and $1,550 price target on Micron, calling the recent selloff an "enhanced buying opportunity."
The bank expects memory pricing to normalize from 2027–2028, but says fundamentals remain strong.
BofA forecasts FY2028 EPS of ~$150, with a bear case of ~$100, still far above the prior cycle peak of ~$12.
It also sees China's CXMT as "not a threat in AI" and says strong AI memory demand should continue supporting pricing.
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BofA reiterated its Buy rating and $1,550 price target on Micron, calling the recent selloff an "enhanced buying opportunity."
The bank expects memory pricing to normalize from 2027–2028, but says fundamentals remain strong.
BofA forecasts FY2028 EPS of ~$150, with a bear case of ~$100, still far above the prior cycle peak of ~$12.
It also sees China's CXMT as "not a threat in AI" and says strong AI memory demand should continue supporting pricing.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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S&P 500 BREAKS OUT, RECORD HIGH IN SIGHT
The S&P 500 has regained momentum, closing just 0.12% below its record high after a nearly 4% three-day rally.
Mega-cap stocks are leading the advance, with the Magnificent Seven posting their strongest three-day gain since May 2025.
Technically, the index has broken above a multi-month consolidation pattern, signaling buyers are back in control.
A new record could open the door toward the 7,900–8,000 range, while support sits near 7,560.
(@WalterBloomberg)
The S&P 500 has regained momentum, closing just 0.12% below its record high after a nearly 4% three-day rally.
Mega-cap stocks are leading the advance, with the Magnificent Seven posting their strongest three-day gain since May 2025.
Technically, the index has broken above a multi-month consolidation pattern, signaling buyers are back in control.
A new record could open the door toward the 7,900–8,000 range, while support sits near 7,560.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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SHIPPING ANALYSTS QUESTION HORMUZ RECOVERY
Shipping analysts are more cautious than U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic.
While Bessent said a U.S.-Iran deal could come "today or tomorrow," analysts report fewer than 10 ships transiting daily. Kpler recorded just nine crossings on Sunday, including only two tankers.
Estimated crude flows remain at 3–5 million bpd, far below the pre-conflict 20 million bpd. Saudi Aramco says replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months, even if the strait reopens immediately.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Shipping analysts are more cautious than U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic.
While Bessent said a U.S.-Iran deal could come "today or tomorrow," analysts report fewer than 10 ships transiting daily. Kpler recorded just nine crossings on Sunday, including only two tankers.
Estimated crude flows remain at 3–5 million bpd, far below the pre-conflict 20 million bpd. Saudi Aramco says replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months, even if the strait reopens immediately.
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U.S. JOLTS JOB OPENINGS 7.359 MLN IN JUNE (CONSENSUS 7.400 MLN)
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OIL PRICES EXTEND LOSSES TO HIT SESSION LOWS; BRENT LAST DOWN 4.7%, WTI DOWN 5.4%
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RUBIO: THERE'S BEEN PROGRESS MADE IN TALKS IRAN TO REOPEN TRAIT OF HORMUZ
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RUBIO SAYS NOTHING FINAL ON HORMUZ, HOPING AGREEMENT WILL HAPPEN VERY SHORTLY
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MORGAN STANLEY: OPEN AI MODELS EXPAND THE MARKET
Morgan Stanley says the rise of open-weight AI models such as Kimi K3, Qwen, and Llama should accelerate AI adoption by lowering costs, not hurt the industry's leaders.
The bank argues cheaper AI will drive broader enterprise usage, citing the "Jevons Paradox."
Morgan Stanley expects open and closed models to coexist, with 63% of enterprises already using both.
It says Nvidia remains the biggest winner regardless of which AI model architecture prevails, as demand for AI computing infrastructure continues to grow.
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Morgan Stanley says the rise of open-weight AI models such as Kimi K3, Qwen, and Llama should accelerate AI adoption by lowering costs, not hurt the industry's leaders.
The bank argues cheaper AI will drive broader enterprise usage, citing the "Jevons Paradox."
Morgan Stanley expects open and closed models to coexist, with 63% of enterprises already using both.
It says Nvidia remains the biggest winner regardless of which AI model architecture prevails, as demand for AI computing infrastructure continues to grow.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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CIO WARNS AI RALLY RELIES ON INVESTOR FAITH
Hirtle CIO Brad Conger warns the AI trade is entering a "kindness of strangers" phase, with hyperscalers increasingly relying on debt as free cash flow weakens.
He says investors are assuming cash flows will recover, calling that belief a possible "comfortable delusion."
AI-related debt has reached roughly $570B, with Citadel forecasting another $500B+ by 2028.
Conger also warns massive AI capex will weigh on earnings for years through higher depreciation expenses.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Hirtle CIO Brad Conger warns the AI trade is entering a "kindness of strangers" phase, with hyperscalers increasingly relying on debt as free cash flow weakens.
He says investors are assuming cash flows will recover, calling that belief a possible "comfortable delusion."
AI-related debt has reached roughly $570B, with Citadel forecasting another $500B+ by 2028.
Conger also warns massive AI capex will weigh on earnings for years through higher depreciation expenses.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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*IRAN WEIGHS ALLOWING EUROPE TO CLEAR MINES IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ
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IRAN MAY ALLOW EUROPE TO CLEAR HORMUZ MINES
Iran is reportedly considering allowing European countries to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a potential concession that could help restore shipping and revive U.S.-Iran peace talks.
The proposal remains under discussion and would require Iranian security guarantees, a durable ceasefire, and approval from the IRGC.
However, Iran continues to insist on controlling the strait and collecting transit fees, a key point of disagreement with the U.S.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Iran is reportedly considering allowing European countries to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, a potential concession that could help restore shipping and revive U.S.-Iran peace talks.
The proposal remains under discussion and would require Iranian security guarantees, a durable ceasefire, and approval from the IRGC.
However, Iran continues to insist on controlling the strait and collecting transit fees, a key point of disagreement with the U.S.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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