BESSENT: SAW QUITE A FEW SHIPS COMING OUT OF HORMUZ EVEN NOW
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(@WalterBloomberg)
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BRENT CRUDE FUTURES DOWN OVER 1% ON HOPES FOR U.S.-IRAN DEAL
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TRUMP'S IRAN STRIKE THREATS: A TIMELINE
🔸 March 21: Trump threatened to "hit and obliterate" Iranian power plants unless Hormuz reopened within 48 hours.
🔸 March 23: Delayed strikes for five days, citing "productive conversations" with Iran.
🔸 April 7: Warned "a whole civilization will die tonight."
🔸 Hours later: A two-week ceasefire was announced.
🔸 April 21: Said he expected "to be bombing" if talks failed.
🔸 Later that day: Extended the ceasefire.
🔸 May 17: Warned, "the Clock is Ticking."
🔸 May 18: Paused planned strikes after requests from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
🔸 June 11: Said the U.S. would hit Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT."
🔸 Hours later: Canceled the operation, saying a deal was near.
🔸 August 1: Said the U.S. was "locked and loaded."
🔸 Later: Called off the attack to pursue a deal with Tehran.
(@WalterBloomberg)
🔸 March 21: Trump threatened to "hit and obliterate" Iranian power plants unless Hormuz reopened within 48 hours.
🔸 March 23: Delayed strikes for five days, citing "productive conversations" with Iran.
🔸 April 7: Warned "a whole civilization will die tonight."
🔸 Hours later: A two-week ceasefire was announced.
🔸 April 21: Said he expected "to be bombing" if talks failed.
🔸 Later that day: Extended the ceasefire.
🔸 May 17: Warned, "the Clock is Ticking."
🔸 May 18: Paused planned strikes after requests from Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE.
🔸 June 11: Said the U.S. would hit Iran "VERY HARD TONIGHT."
🔸 Hours later: Canceled the operation, saying a deal was near.
🔸 August 1: Said the U.S. was "locked and loaded."
🔸 Later: Called off the attack to pursue a deal with Tehran.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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US JUN TRADE DEFICIT $73.26B; CONSENSUS DEFICIT $72.9B
MAY TRADE BAL REVISED TO DEFICIT $77.65B FROM DEFICIT $77.58B
JUN EXPORTS $314.73B, -0.9%; IMPORTS $387.99B, -1.8%
(@WalterBloomberg)
MAY TRADE BAL REVISED TO DEFICIT $77.65B FROM DEFICIT $77.58B
JUN EXPORTS $314.73B, -0.9%; IMPORTS $387.99B, -1.8%
(@WalterBloomberg)
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SOCGEN: BUY THE DIP, SEES S&P 500 AT 8,000
Societe Generale says U.S. earnings strength is broadening beyond Big Tech and continues to support equities.
The bank notes 86% of companies have beaten earnings estimates, margins are at record highs, and 2026 EPS forecasts have risen to $335.
SocGen says AI investment remains strong and expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000, urging investors to "buy the momentum dip."
(@WalterBloomberg)
Societe Generale says U.S. earnings strength is broadening beyond Big Tech and continues to support equities.
The bank notes 86% of companies have beaten earnings estimates, margins are at record highs, and 2026 EPS forecasts have risen to $335.
SocGen says AI investment remains strong and expects the S&P 500 to reach 8,000, urging investors to "buy the momentum dip."
(@WalterBloomberg)
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FED'S PAULSON: THIS IS A COMPLICATED TIME FOR MONETARY POLICY - CNBC
PAULSON: INFLATION IS TOO HIGH, WANTS TO BRING IT DOWN
PAULSON: NEED MILDLY RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY AND FED LIKELY HAS THAT NOW
(@WalterBloomberg)
PAULSON: INFLATION IS TOO HIGH, WANTS TO BRING IT DOWN
PAULSON: NEED MILDLY RESTRICTIVE MONETARY POLICY AND FED LIKELY HAS THAT NOW
(@WalterBloomberg)
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FED'S PAULSON: IF PROGRESS NOT MADE ON INFLATION, FED WILL NEED TO ACT
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MARKET MOVERS
🟢 UPGRADES
$PLTR: Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy
$REPL: Leerink Partners upgraded to Outperform; PT raised to $17 from $11
🔴 DOWNGRADES
$BOW: Deutsche Bank downgraded to Hold; PT raised to $34 from $31; Piper Sandler downgraded to Neutral; PT cut to $34 from $36; RBC downgraded to Sector Perform; PT cut to $34 from $38
$CI: Jefferies downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $307 from $336
$INTU: Truist Securities downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $350 from $410
$ITGR: Truist Securities downgraded to Hold; PT raised to $127 from $110
$LNTH: TD Cowen downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $102.50 from $110; Truist Securities downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $102.50 from $125
$NKE: JP Morgan downgraded to Underweight; PT cut to $40 from $47
$OLN: Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal Weight; PT cut to $20 from $25
$PVH: JP Morgan downgraded to Underweight; PT raised to $84 from $70
$WMT: Oppenheimer downgraded to Perform
COVERAGE INITIATIONS
$APG: Wells Fargo initiated with Overweight; PT $53
$CRWV: Piper Sandler initiated with Overweight; PT $151
$FTH: JonesTrading initiated with Buy; PT $55
$IPEX: Benchmark initiated with Buy; PT $14
$PDFS: Wells Fargo initiated with Equal Weight; PT $50
$SAIL: D.A. Davidson initiated with Neutral; PT $17
$SMC: TD Cowen initiated with Buy; PT $39
$VSH: Needham initiated with Buy; PT $45; Raymond James initiated with Outperform; PT $40
(@WalterBloomberg)
🟢 UPGRADES
$PLTR: Deutsche Bank upgraded to Buy
$REPL: Leerink Partners upgraded to Outperform; PT raised to $17 from $11
🔴 DOWNGRADES
$BOW: Deutsche Bank downgraded to Hold; PT raised to $34 from $31; Piper Sandler downgraded to Neutral; PT cut to $34 from $36; RBC downgraded to Sector Perform; PT cut to $34 from $38
$CI: Jefferies downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $307 from $336
$INTU: Truist Securities downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $350 from $410
$ITGR: Truist Securities downgraded to Hold; PT raised to $127 from $110
$LNTH: TD Cowen downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $102.50 from $110; Truist Securities downgraded to Hold; PT cut to $102.50 from $125
$NKE: JP Morgan downgraded to Underweight; PT cut to $40 from $47
$OLN: Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal Weight; PT cut to $20 from $25
$PVH: JP Morgan downgraded to Underweight; PT raised to $84 from $70
$WMT: Oppenheimer downgraded to Perform
COVERAGE INITIATIONS
$APG: Wells Fargo initiated with Overweight; PT $53
$CRWV: Piper Sandler initiated with Overweight; PT $151
$FTH: JonesTrading initiated with Buy; PT $55
$IPEX: Benchmark initiated with Buy; PT $14
$PDFS: Wells Fargo initiated with Equal Weight; PT $50
$SAIL: D.A. Davidson initiated with Neutral; PT $17
$SMC: TD Cowen initiated with Buy; PT $39
$VSH: Needham initiated with Buy; PT $45; Raymond James initiated with Outperform; PT $40
(@WalterBloomberg)
THERE IS NO REAL LONG-TERM SUBSTITUTE FOR BLACK SEA PORTS FOR GRAIN EXPORTS, UKRAINE'S FARM MINISTER TELLS REUTERS
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UKRAINE: NO REPLACEMENT FOR BLACK SEA GRAIN EXPORTS
Ukraine's farm minister says there is "no real long-term substitute" for Black Sea ports for grain exports.
Alternative export routes will not reach full operational capacity before the end of August and can handle only around half of Ukraine's normal export volumes.
The minister said Ukrainian farmers are already facing an average 30% drop in crop prices, while losses from Russian strikes on Black Sea infrastructure could reach $1.5B–$3B.
He warned the attacks threaten global food security and will drive consumer food prices higher.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Ukraine's farm minister says there is "no real long-term substitute" for Black Sea ports for grain exports.
Alternative export routes will not reach full operational capacity before the end of August and can handle only around half of Ukraine's normal export volumes.
The minister said Ukrainian farmers are already facing an average 30% drop in crop prices, while losses from Russian strikes on Black Sea infrastructure could reach $1.5B–$3B.
He warned the attacks threaten global food security and will drive consumer food prices higher.
(@WalterBloomberg)
ING: BITCOIN'S LONG-TERM TREND REMAINS BEARISH
ING says Bitcoin's long-term downtrend remains intact despite a modest rebound from recent lows.
The bank sees strong resistance between $65,670 and $69,900 and doubts Bitcoin can break above that range sustainably.
ING warns a drop below the key $54,450 support level would trigger another long-term sell signal and reinforce the prevailing bearish trend.
(@WalterBloomberg)
ING says Bitcoin's long-term downtrend remains intact despite a modest rebound from recent lows.
The bank sees strong resistance between $65,670 and $69,900 and doubts Bitcoin can break above that range sustainably.
ING warns a drop below the key $54,450 support level would trigger another long-term sell signal and reinforce the prevailing bearish trend.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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$MU - BOFA: MICRON PULLBACK IS A BUYING OPPORTUNITY
BofA reiterated its Buy rating and $1,550 price target on Micron, calling the recent selloff an "enhanced buying opportunity."
The bank expects memory pricing to normalize from 2027–2028, but says fundamentals remain strong.
BofA forecasts FY2028 EPS of ~$150, with a bear case of ~$100, still far above the prior cycle peak of ~$12.
It also sees China's CXMT as "not a threat in AI" and says strong AI memory demand should continue supporting pricing.
(@WalterBloomberg)
BofA reiterated its Buy rating and $1,550 price target on Micron, calling the recent selloff an "enhanced buying opportunity."
The bank expects memory pricing to normalize from 2027–2028, but says fundamentals remain strong.
BofA forecasts FY2028 EPS of ~$150, with a bear case of ~$100, still far above the prior cycle peak of ~$12.
It also sees China's CXMT as "not a threat in AI" and says strong AI memory demand should continue supporting pricing.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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S&P 500 BREAKS OUT, RECORD HIGH IN SIGHT
The S&P 500 has regained momentum, closing just 0.12% below its record high after a nearly 4% three-day rally.
Mega-cap stocks are leading the advance, with the Magnificent Seven posting their strongest three-day gain since May 2025.
Technically, the index has broken above a multi-month consolidation pattern, signaling buyers are back in control.
A new record could open the door toward the 7,900–8,000 range, while support sits near 7,560.
(@WalterBloomberg)
The S&P 500 has regained momentum, closing just 0.12% below its record high after a nearly 4% three-day rally.
Mega-cap stocks are leading the advance, with the Magnificent Seven posting their strongest three-day gain since May 2025.
Technically, the index has broken above a multi-month consolidation pattern, signaling buyers are back in control.
A new record could open the door toward the 7,900–8,000 range, while support sits near 7,560.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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SHIPPING ANALYSTS QUESTION HORMUZ RECOVERY
Shipping analysts are more cautious than U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic.
While Bessent said a U.S.-Iran deal could come "today or tomorrow," analysts report fewer than 10 ships transiting daily. Kpler recorded just nine crossings on Sunday, including only two tankers.
Estimated crude flows remain at 3–5 million bpd, far below the pre-conflict 20 million bpd. Saudi Aramco says replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months, even if the strait reopens immediately.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Shipping analysts are more cautious than U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on a recovery in Strait of Hormuz traffic.
While Bessent said a U.S.-Iran deal could come "today or tomorrow," analysts report fewer than 10 ships transiting daily. Kpler recorded just nine crossings on Sunday, including only two tankers.
Estimated crude flows remain at 3–5 million bpd, far below the pre-conflict 20 million bpd. Saudi Aramco says replenishing inventories could take up to 18 months, even if the strait reopens immediately.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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U.S. JOLTS JOB OPENINGS 7.359 MLN IN JUNE (CONSENSUS 7.400 MLN)
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OIL PRICES EXTEND LOSSES TO HIT SESSION LOWS; BRENT LAST DOWN 4.7%, WTI DOWN 5.4%
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