WARSH'S FED STRATEGY COULD WEAKEN THE DOLLAR
Kevin Warsh's approach to monetary policy could hurt the U.S. dollar over time, according to Commerzbank.
Warsh suggested markets can tighten financial conditions through higher long-term bond yields, reducing the need for Fed rate hikes.
Commerzbank warns this risks damaging the Fed's credibility if inflation stays above target without decisive action.
If investors lose confidence in the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, the dollar could come under pressure.
The DXY dollar index was last up 0.1% at 100.014.
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Kevin Warsh's approach to monetary policy could hurt the U.S. dollar over time, according to Commerzbank.
Warsh suggested markets can tighten financial conditions through higher long-term bond yields, reducing the need for Fed rate hikes.
Commerzbank warns this risks damaging the Fed's credibility if inflation stays above target without decisive action.
If investors lose confidence in the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, the dollar could come under pressure.
The DXY dollar index was last up 0.1% at 100.014.
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BRENT CRUDE FUTURES UP 3% TO $86.33/BBL ON US-IRAN WAR UNCERTAINTY
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IRAN WAR WIPES OUT 2.6B BARRELS OF OIL SUPPLY
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the Iran war has removed 2.6 billion barrels of crude from global supply.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to just 10% of pre-war levels, with more than 100 million barrels of supply lost for every week the route remains closed.
Even if Hormuz reopened today, rebuilding global oil inventories could take up to 18 months.
Nasser also warned that any major refinery outages would further tighten energy markets, where refining capacity is already stretched.
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Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the Iran war has removed 2.6 billion barrels of crude from global supply.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to just 10% of pre-war levels, with more than 100 million barrels of supply lost for every week the route remains closed.
Even if Hormuz reopened today, rebuilding global oil inventories could take up to 18 months.
Nasser also warned that any major refinery outages would further tighten energy markets, where refining capacity is already stretched.
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$AAPL: DZ Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $310
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🇯🇵 JAPAN MAY NOT HAVE INTERVENED IN FX MARKET ON MONDAY, BANK OF JAPAN DATA SUGGESTS
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DRY BULK SHIP HIT BY PROJECTILE NEAR STRAIT OF HORMUZ - MARITIME SECURITY SOURCES
CREW MEMBERS ABANDONED DRY BULK SHIP HIT NEAR HORMUZ, ONE SEAFARER MISSING – MARITIME SECURITY SOURCES
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CREW MEMBERS ABANDONED DRY BULK SHIP HIT NEAR HORMUZ, ONE SEAFARER MISSING – MARITIME SECURITY SOURCES
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🇺🇸 WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 5 (ET)
• 11:00 AM – Executive Time (8:00 AM PT)
• 4:30 PM – President Trump delivers remarks (1:30 PM PT)
Evening
• Departs Las Vegas for Washington, D.C. (Time TBD)
• Arrives at the White House (Time TBD)
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• 11:00 AM – Executive Time (8:00 AM PT)
• 4:30 PM – President Trump delivers remarks (1:30 PM PT)
Evening
• Departs Las Vegas for Washington, D.C. (Time TBD)
• Arrives at the White House (Time TBD)
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IRAQI OIL MINISTRY SAYS TANKERS CARRYING IRAQI CRUDE HAVE PASSED THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ - STATE MEDIA
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PEZESHKIAN: "I WILL NOT RESIGN"
Reports from Iran:
President Pezeshkian says he has no intention of resigning and insists he is fully aligned with Iran's military.
"They want to create a rift," he said.
He also defended the government's casualty figures from the January events, accusing critics of inflating the death toll from around 3,000 to 30,000–40,000 and calling them "cowardly and traitorous."
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Reports from Iran:
President Pezeshkian says he has no intention of resigning and insists he is fully aligned with Iran's military.
"They want to create a rift," he said.
He also defended the government's casualty figures from the January events, accusing critics of inflating the death toll from around 3,000 to 30,000–40,000 and calling them "cowardly and traitorous."
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BOFA: TARGET FX VOLATILITY, NOT THE WHOLE MARKET
Bank of America says investors should focus on specific currency pairs—not broad FX volatility—if the Fed resumes rate hikes.
The bank highlights Japanese yen and British pound pairs as the strongest opportunities.
Historically, these pairs have seen the biggest volatility around Fed hikes, making targeted trades more attractive than betting on the entire G10 FX market.
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Bank of America says investors should focus on specific currency pairs—not broad FX volatility—if the Fed resumes rate hikes.
The bank highlights Japanese yen and British pound pairs as the strongest opportunities.
Historically, these pairs have seen the biggest volatility around Fed hikes, making targeted trades more attractive than betting on the entire G10 FX market.
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SENIOR IRANIAN SOURCE TO REUTERS: TEMPORARY HORMUZ PLAN UNDER DISCUSSION WITH OMAN GIVES TEHRAN FULL CONTROL OVER INBOUND SHIPPING
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IRAN PROPOSES NEW HORMUZ SHIPPING PLAN
Reuters, citing a senior Iranian source, reports that Tehran and Oman are discussing a temporary plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The proposal would give Iran full control over inbound shipping, while Oman would coordinate outbound traffic after notifying Tehran.
The source says the plan would give Iran visibility over all vessel movements and the ability to intervene if necessary. Iran is reportedly unlikely to accept any alternative.
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Reuters, citing a senior Iranian source, reports that Tehran and Oman are discussing a temporary plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The proposal would give Iran full control over inbound shipping, while Oman would coordinate outbound traffic after notifying Tehran.
The source says the plan would give Iran visibility over all vessel movements and the ability to intervene if necessary. Iran is reportedly unlikely to accept any alternative.
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BARCLAYS: S&P 500 EARNINGS CRUSH EXPECTATIONS
Barclays says 85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q2 earnings estimates, well above the long-term average of 76%.
Revenue rose 11.2% year-over-year, while EPS jumped 25.1%, led by Big Tech.
Despite the strong results, Barclays notes that both earnings beats and misses have triggered negative stock reactions on average—a rare pattern that suggests investors had already priced in much of the good news.
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Barclays says 85% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q2 earnings estimates, well above the long-term average of 76%.
Revenue rose 11.2% year-over-year, while EPS jumped 25.1%, led by Big Tech.
Despite the strong results, Barclays notes that both earnings beats and misses have triggered negative stock reactions on average—a rare pattern that suggests investors had already priced in much of the good news.
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$SPOT - SPOTIFY TOPS 300M SUBSCRIBERS, Q3 REVENUE OUTLOOK BEATS
Results
• Revenue: €4.78B vs. €4.79B est. (slight miss)
• EPS: €2.61
• Gross Margin: 33.4%
• Free Cash Flow: €797M
• Premium Subscribers: 300M vs. 299.2M est.
• MAUs: 777M vs. 778.2M est.
Guidance
• Q3 Revenue: €5.0B vs. €4.93B est. (beat)
• Q3 Operating Income: €670M vs. €677.8M est. (below est.)
• Q3 Premium Subscribers: 305M vs. 305.3M est.
• Q3 MAUs: 788M vs. 793.6M est.
• Q3 Gross Margin: 32.9%
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Results
• Revenue: €4.78B vs. €4.79B est. (slight miss)
• EPS: €2.61
• Gross Margin: 33.4%
• Free Cash Flow: €797M
• Premium Subscribers: 300M vs. 299.2M est.
• MAUs: 777M vs. 778.2M est.
Guidance
• Q3 Revenue: €5.0B vs. €4.93B est. (beat)
• Q3 Operating Income: €670M vs. €677.8M est. (below est.)
• Q3 Premium Subscribers: 305M vs. 305.3M est.
• Q3 MAUs: 788M vs. 793.6M est.
• Q3 Gross Margin: 32.9%
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U.S. ARMY HAS DEPLETED MUCH OF ITS LONG-RANGE LAND-BASED MISSILES DURING IRAN WAR: SOURCES
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EXCLUSIVE-U.S. ARMY HAS DEPLETED MUCH OF ITS LONG-RANGE LAND-BASED MISSILES DURING IRAN WAR: SOURCES
Reuters, citing sources, reports the U.S. has used "virtually all" of its long-range ATACMS and PrSM missiles during the five-month war with Iran, raising concerns about readiness for future conflicts.
The report also says Patriot, THAAD, and Tomahawk stockpiles have been significantly reduced.
The White House disputes concerns, saying the U.S. has ample munitions and production is being ramped up.
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Reuters, citing sources, reports the U.S. has used "virtually all" of its long-range ATACMS and PrSM missiles during the five-month war with Iran, raising concerns about readiness for future conflicts.
The report also says Patriot, THAAD, and Tomahawk stockpiles have been significantly reduced.
The White House disputes concerns, saying the U.S. has ample munitions and production is being ramped up.
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-TRUMP ADMINISTRATION DRAFTING BAN ON U.S. IMPORTS OF CHINESE DATA CENTER DEVICES: SOURCES
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U.S. PLANS BAN ON NEW CHINESE DATA CENTER PARTS
Reuters reports the Trump administration is drafting a ban on imports of new Chinese optical transceivers used in AI data centers over national security concerns.
The proposed FCC rule, expected this year, aims to prevent espionage, malware, and supply chain risks.
The move could hit China's Zhongji Innolight while benefiting U.S. rivals such as Coherent and Lumentum, though it may increase costs for cloud providers like AWS.
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Reuters reports the Trump administration is drafting a ban on imports of new Chinese optical transceivers used in AI data centers over national security concerns.
The proposed FCC rule, expected this year, aims to prevent espionage, malware, and supply chain risks.
The move could hit China's Zhongji Innolight while benefiting U.S. rivals such as Coherent and Lumentum, though it may increase costs for cloud providers like AWS.
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SYRIA TELLS US IT IS WILLING TO DRASTICALLY DROP RUSSIAN OIL IMPORTS, SOURCES SAY
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SYRIA TO CUT RUSSIAN OIL IMPORTS AMID U.S. SANCTIONS TALKS
Reuters, citing sources, reports Syria has agreed to sharply reduce Russian oil imports as it discusses the removal of its U.S. State Sponsor of Terrorism designation.
The move would mark a major shift away from reliance on Russian crude and could weaken Moscow's influence in Syria.
Sources say the U.S. did not formally make the oil cuts a condition for lifting the designation, but the issue has featured prominently in talks.
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Reuters, citing sources, reports Syria has agreed to sharply reduce Russian oil imports as it discusses the removal of its U.S. State Sponsor of Terrorism designation.
The move would mark a major shift away from reliance on Russian crude and could weaken Moscow's influence in Syria.
Sources say the U.S. did not formally make the oil cuts a condition for lifting the designation, but the issue has featured prominently in talks.
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*US DRAFTING BAN ON CHINA DATA CENTER COMPONENTS: REUTERS
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