IRAN SEES TRUMP FAVORING TALKS OVER ESCALATION
Iranian leaders reportedly believe President Trump is seeking leverage through military threats rather than a broader war.
According to sources, Tehran believes it can withstand pressure by using regional proxies and maintaining pressure on global shipping until Washington favors diplomacy.
The assessment comes despite Trump's warnings of military action, with Iran insisting no direct U.S. negotiations are currently planned.
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Iranian leaders reportedly believe President Trump is seeking leverage through military threats rather than a broader war.
According to sources, Tehran believes it can withstand pressure by using regional proxies and maintaining pressure on global shipping until Washington favors diplomacy.
The assessment comes despite Trump's warnings of military action, with Iran insisting no direct U.S. negotiations are currently planned.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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CITADEL WARNS FED MESSAGING IS HURTING CREDIBILITY
Citadel Securities said Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's policy framework is creating uncertainty by pledging to curb inflation without clearly explaining how.
The firm warned that relying on higher market yields to tighten financial conditions risks a negative feedback loop, where delayed rate hikes fuel higher inflation expectations and push long-term Treasury yields even higher.
Citadel said the recent selloff in Treasuries reflects growing doubts about the Fed's policy credibility.
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Citadel Securities said Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's policy framework is creating uncertainty by pledging to curb inflation without clearly explaining how.
The firm warned that relying on higher market yields to tighten financial conditions risks a negative feedback loop, where delayed rate hikes fuel higher inflation expectations and push long-term Treasury yields even higher.
Citadel said the recent selloff in Treasuries reflects growing doubts about the Fed's policy credibility.
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META INVITED TO WHITE HOUSE TUESDAY TO DISCUSS AI SAFETY TESTING BY U.S. GOVERNMENT - COMPANY SPOKESPERSON
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TRUMP TELLS HEGSETH: YOU ARE DOING A FANTASTIC JOB
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*TRUMP: THIS IS THE LAST CHANCE FOR IRAN TO SIGN A DEAL
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*TRUMP: TALKING ABOUT HAVING STRAIT OPEN BY TOMORROW
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TRUMP: I'M NOT GOING TO LET IRAN CHARGE TO GO THROUGH HORMUZ STRAIT
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WARSH'S FED STRATEGY COULD WEAKEN THE DOLLAR
Kevin Warsh's approach to monetary policy could hurt the U.S. dollar over time, according to Commerzbank.
Warsh suggested markets can tighten financial conditions through higher long-term bond yields, reducing the need for Fed rate hikes.
Commerzbank warns this risks damaging the Fed's credibility if inflation stays above target without decisive action.
If investors lose confidence in the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, the dollar could come under pressure.
The DXY dollar index was last up 0.1% at 100.014.
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Kevin Warsh's approach to monetary policy could hurt the U.S. dollar over time, according to Commerzbank.
Warsh suggested markets can tighten financial conditions through higher long-term bond yields, reducing the need for Fed rate hikes.
Commerzbank warns this risks damaging the Fed's credibility if inflation stays above target without decisive action.
If investors lose confidence in the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, the dollar could come under pressure.
The DXY dollar index was last up 0.1% at 100.014.
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BRENT CRUDE FUTURES UP 3% TO $86.33/BBL ON US-IRAN WAR UNCERTAINTY
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IRAN WAR WIPES OUT 2.6B BARRELS OF OIL SUPPLY
Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the Iran war has removed 2.6 billion barrels of crude from global supply.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to just 10% of pre-war levels, with more than 100 million barrels of supply lost for every week the route remains closed.
Even if Hormuz reopened today, rebuilding global oil inventories could take up to 18 months.
Nasser also warned that any major refinery outages would further tighten energy markets, where refining capacity is already stretched.
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Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the Iran war has removed 2.6 billion barrels of crude from global supply.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to just 10% of pre-war levels, with more than 100 million barrels of supply lost for every week the route remains closed.
Even if Hormuz reopened today, rebuilding global oil inventories could take up to 18 months.
Nasser also warned that any major refinery outages would further tighten energy markets, where refining capacity is already stretched.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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$AAPL: DZ Bank Downgrades to Hold from Buy - PT $310
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🇯🇵 JAPAN MAY NOT HAVE INTERVENED IN FX MARKET ON MONDAY, BANK OF JAPAN DATA SUGGESTS
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DRY BULK SHIP HIT BY PROJECTILE NEAR STRAIT OF HORMUZ - MARITIME SECURITY SOURCES
CREW MEMBERS ABANDONED DRY BULK SHIP HIT NEAR HORMUZ, ONE SEAFARER MISSING – MARITIME SECURITY SOURCES
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CREW MEMBERS ABANDONED DRY BULK SHIP HIT NEAR HORMUZ, ONE SEAFARER MISSING – MARITIME SECURITY SOURCES
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🇺🇸 WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 5 (ET)
• 11:00 AM – Executive Time (8:00 AM PT)
• 4:30 PM – President Trump delivers remarks (1:30 PM PT)
Evening
• Departs Las Vegas for Washington, D.C. (Time TBD)
• Arrives at the White House (Time TBD)
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• 11:00 AM – Executive Time (8:00 AM PT)
• 4:30 PM – President Trump delivers remarks (1:30 PM PT)
Evening
• Departs Las Vegas for Washington, D.C. (Time TBD)
• Arrives at the White House (Time TBD)
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IRAQI OIL MINISTRY SAYS TANKERS CARRYING IRAQI CRUDE HAVE PASSED THROUGH STRAIT OF HORMUZ - STATE MEDIA
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PEZESHKIAN: "I WILL NOT RESIGN"
Reports from Iran:
President Pezeshkian says he has no intention of resigning and insists he is fully aligned with Iran's military.
"They want to create a rift," he said.
He also defended the government's casualty figures from the January events, accusing critics of inflating the death toll from around 3,000 to 30,000–40,000 and calling them "cowardly and traitorous."
(@WalterBloomberg)
Reports from Iran:
President Pezeshkian says he has no intention of resigning and insists he is fully aligned with Iran's military.
"They want to create a rift," he said.
He also defended the government's casualty figures from the January events, accusing critics of inflating the death toll from around 3,000 to 30,000–40,000 and calling them "cowardly and traitorous."
(@WalterBloomberg)
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BOFA: TARGET FX VOLATILITY, NOT THE WHOLE MARKET
Bank of America says investors should focus on specific currency pairs—not broad FX volatility—if the Fed resumes rate hikes.
The bank highlights Japanese yen and British pound pairs as the strongest opportunities.
Historically, these pairs have seen the biggest volatility around Fed hikes, making targeted trades more attractive than betting on the entire G10 FX market.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Bank of America says investors should focus on specific currency pairs—not broad FX volatility—if the Fed resumes rate hikes.
The bank highlights Japanese yen and British pound pairs as the strongest opportunities.
Historically, these pairs have seen the biggest volatility around Fed hikes, making targeted trades more attractive than betting on the entire G10 FX market.
(@WalterBloomberg)
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SENIOR IRANIAN SOURCE TO REUTERS: TEMPORARY HORMUZ PLAN UNDER DISCUSSION WITH OMAN GIVES TEHRAN FULL CONTROL OVER INBOUND SHIPPING
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IRAN PROPOSES NEW HORMUZ SHIPPING PLAN
Reuters, citing a senior Iranian source, reports that Tehran and Oman are discussing a temporary plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The proposal would give Iran full control over inbound shipping, while Oman would coordinate outbound traffic after notifying Tehran.
The source says the plan would give Iran visibility over all vessel movements and the ability to intervene if necessary. Iran is reportedly unlikely to accept any alternative.
(@WalterBloomberg)
Reuters, citing a senior Iranian source, reports that Tehran and Oman are discussing a temporary plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
The proposal would give Iran full control over inbound shipping, while Oman would coordinate outbound traffic after notifying Tehran.
The source says the plan would give Iran visibility over all vessel movements and the ability to intervene if necessary. Iran is reportedly unlikely to accept any alternative.
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