✅MIDDLE EAST CONFLICT, OBSERVATIONS:
💬What can I say so far, as I am closely observing the conflict:
🆕Being allied with the West used to bring security guarantees, investments, status, etc. Now it turns out that being allied with the West can make you a target of airstrikes, shut down your shipping lanes and scare all the tourists and investors away. Qatar was designated as a major ally of the US in the region as early as this October 2025. This did NOT stop any missiles. Who would have thought...
🆒Western air defenses are not nearly as good as they were portrayed to be. All the US bases and other targets are being struck by drones and missiles. Less than 50% is intercepted. After the war is over, I expect the monarchies to seriously reconsider their security arrangements. Last time the UAE’s oil infrastructure was hit by a Houthi drone 3 years ago, they almost bought Russian air defenses, but were told not to, by the US. It seems they are regretting their decision now.
📊Whether Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz open or closed is largely irrelevant. Everyone knows it can be closed with a single drone strike now and the insurance premiums will change the economics of shipping and oil extraction in the region. This threat is also likely to keep the oil prices elevated for a while now.
💵Previous conflicts in the region did not affect UAE’s tourist or investment attractiveness, as everyone, myself included, believed that no one will ever strike Dubai. A military attack on Dubai was simply unthinkable. Now, however, Dubai’s aura of invincible safe haven for the rich is shattered for good. While Dubai is not “Over”, and things will go back to normal soon, I expect big capitals to exit the UAE or to stay away, refraining from big investments in the country in the future. The precedent is set, and even the slightest tensions in the region, any news of disagreement, however mild, will drive tourists and investors away, in fear of renewed strikes. A risk of being stuck in an airport VS being STRUCK by a drone in an airport feel different.
❌All attacks on Iran have NOTHING to do with Iran’s nuclear program or their missile program. It’s got to do with it being one of the key independent suppliers of oil to China, with Israel’s highly specific worldview and American internal politics. The tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court, Epstein files released, etc… In any difficult pre-election situation-strike something in the Middle East, seems to be the US political playbook. So if Iran survives this war, there will be many other wars to come, no doubt. And the region will now be on fire regularly.
🚨If Iran falls, however, we will see Libya and Iraq on steroids. Western track-record of regime change in the Middle East is conclusive: there will be no transition to “democracy” and "prosperity", but chaos, ethnic wars, terror, etc. Which will plunge the region into an abyss of uncertainty for decades to come.
💬What can I say so far, as I am closely observing the conflict:
🆕Being allied with the West used to bring security guarantees, investments, status, etc. Now it turns out that being allied with the West can make you a target of airstrikes, shut down your shipping lanes and scare all the tourists and investors away. Qatar was designated as a major ally of the US in the region as early as this October 2025. This did NOT stop any missiles. Who would have thought...
🆒Western air defenses are not nearly as good as they were portrayed to be. All the US bases and other targets are being struck by drones and missiles. Less than 50% is intercepted. After the war is over, I expect the monarchies to seriously reconsider their security arrangements. Last time the UAE’s oil infrastructure was hit by a Houthi drone 3 years ago, they almost bought Russian air defenses, but were told not to, by the US. It seems they are regretting their decision now.
📊Whether Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz open or closed is largely irrelevant. Everyone knows it can be closed with a single drone strike now and the insurance premiums will change the economics of shipping and oil extraction in the region. This threat is also likely to keep the oil prices elevated for a while now.
💵Previous conflicts in the region did not affect UAE’s tourist or investment attractiveness, as everyone, myself included, believed that no one will ever strike Dubai. A military attack on Dubai was simply unthinkable. Now, however, Dubai’s aura of invincible safe haven for the rich is shattered for good. While Dubai is not “Over”, and things will go back to normal soon, I expect big capitals to exit the UAE or to stay away, refraining from big investments in the country in the future. The precedent is set, and even the slightest tensions in the region, any news of disagreement, however mild, will drive tourists and investors away, in fear of renewed strikes. A risk of being stuck in an airport VS being STRUCK by a drone in an airport feel different.
❌All attacks on Iran have NOTHING to do with Iran’s nuclear program or their missile program. It’s got to do with it being one of the key independent suppliers of oil to China, with Israel’s highly specific worldview and American internal politics. The tariffs were struck down by the Supreme Court, Epstein files released, etc… In any difficult pre-election situation-strike something in the Middle East, seems to be the US political playbook. So if Iran survives this war, there will be many other wars to come, no doubt. And the region will now be on fire regularly.
🚨If Iran falls, however, we will see Libya and Iraq on steroids. Western track-record of regime change in the Middle East is conclusive: there will be no transition to “democracy” and "prosperity", but chaos, ethnic wars, terror, etc. Which will plunge the region into an abyss of uncertainty for decades to come.
📉 MARKET UPDATE: GOLD/XAUUSD ANALYSIS 📉
Gold has pulled back nearly 1500 pips, making a significant retracement to close the weekend gap after the market opened yesterday. The correction was aggressive, but technically healthy within the broader structure.
At the moment, price has shown a clear rejection at the H4 support level around 5281, indicating that buyers are still defending this zone. As long as this level holds, the probability favors a continuation toward the nearest H4 resistance around 5371.
My current bias remains on the buy side. However, I am not chasing the market. A solid H4 breakout and close above 5371 is required to confirm bullish continuation, which would open room for further upside momentum.
If price fails to break that resistance and instead shows weakness, we will wait for proper confirmation before considering a sell scenario. Patience and disciplined execution around key zones remain the priority.
Follow the plan. Respect the levels. Let the market confirm the direction.
Gold has pulled back nearly 1500 pips, making a significant retracement to close the weekend gap after the market opened yesterday. The correction was aggressive, but technically healthy within the broader structure.
At the moment, price has shown a clear rejection at the H4 support level around 5281, indicating that buyers are still defending this zone. As long as this level holds, the probability favors a continuation toward the nearest H4 resistance around 5371.
My current bias remains on the buy side. However, I am not chasing the market. A solid H4 breakout and close above 5371 is required to confirm bullish continuation, which would open room for further upside momentum.
If price fails to break that resistance and instead shows weakness, we will wait for proper confirmation before considering a sell scenario. Patience and disciplined execution around key zones remain the priority.
Follow the plan. Respect the levels. Let the market confirm the direction.
SELL Gold @5107-5117
Sl :5121
Tp1 :5103
Tp2: 5100
Enter Slowly-Layer with proper money management
Do not rush your entries
Sl :5121
Tp1 :5103
Tp2: 5100
Enter Slowly-Layer with proper money management
Do not rush your entries
Traders of World
SELL Gold @5107-5117 Sl :5121 Tp1 :5103 Tp2: 5100 Enter Slowly-Layer with proper money management Do not rush your entries
ROUND 5 STRAIGHT TO TP2//70pips❤️
Let’s CLOSE our profit now and set breakeven if you wish to hold now‼️
Nonstop smashing TP with Me 🫡
Let’s CLOSE our profit now and set breakeven if you wish to hold now‼️
Nonstop smashing TP with Me 🫡
WHAT ABOUT THE US-IRAN WAR AND GOLD?
The war is still a factor, but right now other forces (USD + rates) are stronger.
📌 War usually pushes gold higher because gold is a “safe-haven” when markets get risky. Investors buy gold to protect money when wars or big tensions happen.
But right now gold is falling because:
👉 A very strong US dollar and higher interest rates are outweighing the war effect so traders sold gold to take profit or buy USD instead.
The war is still a factor, but right now other forces (USD + rates) are stronger.
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