Here’s a much more straightforward synopsis of current situation vis-a-vis Iran.
-Scott Bessent is successfully seizing the regime’s financial & physical assets world wide outside the regime & this isnt just hurting the regime; its killing the residual leftovers of Hamas & Hezbollah & in Yemen. Its threatening to break the control of the security forces over the Iranian population. They’re starving & bankrupt just like their hostages now. How long can that hold?
-Scott Bessent is attacking & successfully destroying the series of front companies the Iranian regime is using to do business & bring in what residual income the regime still has. Another way of saying that is the remaining mechanisms Iran has to bypass sanctions are successfully being dismantled & the regime’s income is going to ZERO. Yes you read that right; ZERO.
-Even IF the blockade began having trouble stopping Iranian oil outbound from the gulf, the MECHANISM TO PAY IRAN FOR IT no longer exists, courtesy of Scott Bessent. This was cemented when the EU late this week signed on to Scott Bessent’s operation to financially cut off the regime from the outside world.
-The ‘repeated threats’ are messaging to oman, UAE & Qatar: cooperate with Scott Bessent, or else. The Trump Derangement Think Tank ‘experts’ are either clueless to that or deliberately ignoring it because it doesn’t fit their narrative.
-Iran in an attempt to break the financial stranglehold lashed out & tried to score a political victory that might influence Qatar & UAE, attacking a US Navy carrier, failed. It was a high risk low probability of success gamble, & it failed.
-The US responded by smashing three IRGC controlled oil tankers. Consequences of attacking the US Navy. This sends the message to the Iranian regime’s banking partners that we wont tolerate continued cooperation with Iran’s regime & our willingness to attack commerce kinetically, not just financially.
-Iran escalated; the hit on these three IRGC tankers may not be the last of it. The blockade is 100% effective interdicting/blocking ship traffic to/from Iran. The escalation is a clear indication the regime knows the financial strangulation is working. The regime is scared of internal collapse. Hence, the escalation.
-the regime is trying to build overland routes to counter this but that only makes up for a single digit percentage fraction of loss in commerce both ways.
-The overland routes are highly vulnerable to air attack. Moving oil overland is only effective by locomotive/train via rail line. Its very very easy to successfully target & destroy rail communication lines, & iran has a very limited amount of rolling stock in the form of tanker cars & locomotives to pull them. And rail bridges are hard to rebuild after large scale heavy ordnance destroys them.
-even if Iran had the capacity to rapidly rebuild key rail bridges to keep rail exports of oil going, & had a solution to the payment for goods problem, do they have the money to pay for supplies & construction teams to keep the supply lines active…? Can they replace rail rolling stock & locomotives lost to air attacks..? No.
-pick axe mountain is a pretty juicy target. IRGC leadership is a pretty juicy target. The developing land routes of commerce are juicy targets. All just sitting there waiting for CENTCOM to target them, & Iran has no real ability to stop that.
-Iranian regime has no real counter to what Scott Bessent is doing.
This is where we are at. The President is right: time is on our side. The regime NEEDS outside income to keep from collapsing. They cannot hold out indefinitely. Scott Bessent is taking the regime’s income to zero. And it will remain at zero until we decide otherwise. Iran has no good options.
Time is on our side, not the Regime’s. And no amount of think tank propaganda & media lies change any of that.
4/
-Scott Bessent is successfully seizing the regime’s financial & physical assets world wide outside the regime & this isnt just hurting the regime; its killing the residual leftovers of Hamas & Hezbollah & in Yemen. Its threatening to break the control of the security forces over the Iranian population. They’re starving & bankrupt just like their hostages now. How long can that hold?
-Scott Bessent is attacking & successfully destroying the series of front companies the Iranian regime is using to do business & bring in what residual income the regime still has. Another way of saying that is the remaining mechanisms Iran has to bypass sanctions are successfully being dismantled & the regime’s income is going to ZERO. Yes you read that right; ZERO.
-Even IF the blockade began having trouble stopping Iranian oil outbound from the gulf, the MECHANISM TO PAY IRAN FOR IT no longer exists, courtesy of Scott Bessent. This was cemented when the EU late this week signed on to Scott Bessent’s operation to financially cut off the regime from the outside world.
-The ‘repeated threats’ are messaging to oman, UAE & Qatar: cooperate with Scott Bessent, or else. The Trump Derangement Think Tank ‘experts’ are either clueless to that or deliberately ignoring it because it doesn’t fit their narrative.
-Iran in an attempt to break the financial stranglehold lashed out & tried to score a political victory that might influence Qatar & UAE, attacking a US Navy carrier, failed. It was a high risk low probability of success gamble, & it failed.
-The US responded by smashing three IRGC controlled oil tankers. Consequences of attacking the US Navy. This sends the message to the Iranian regime’s banking partners that we wont tolerate continued cooperation with Iran’s regime & our willingness to attack commerce kinetically, not just financially.
-Iran escalated; the hit on these three IRGC tankers may not be the last of it. The blockade is 100% effective interdicting/blocking ship traffic to/from Iran. The escalation is a clear indication the regime knows the financial strangulation is working. The regime is scared of internal collapse. Hence, the escalation.
-the regime is trying to build overland routes to counter this but that only makes up for a single digit percentage fraction of loss in commerce both ways.
-The overland routes are highly vulnerable to air attack. Moving oil overland is only effective by locomotive/train via rail line. Its very very easy to successfully target & destroy rail communication lines, & iran has a very limited amount of rolling stock in the form of tanker cars & locomotives to pull them. And rail bridges are hard to rebuild after large scale heavy ordnance destroys them.
-even if Iran had the capacity to rapidly rebuild key rail bridges to keep rail exports of oil going, & had a solution to the payment for goods problem, do they have the money to pay for supplies & construction teams to keep the supply lines active…? Can they replace rail rolling stock & locomotives lost to air attacks..? No.
-pick axe mountain is a pretty juicy target. IRGC leadership is a pretty juicy target. The developing land routes of commerce are juicy targets. All just sitting there waiting for CENTCOM to target them, & Iran has no real ability to stop that.
-Iranian regime has no real counter to what Scott Bessent is doing.
This is where we are at. The President is right: time is on our side. The regime NEEDS outside income to keep from collapsing. They cannot hold out indefinitely. Scott Bessent is taking the regime’s income to zero. And it will remain at zero until we decide otherwise. Iran has no good options.
Time is on our side, not the Regime’s. And no amount of think tank propaganda & media lies change any of that.
4/
👍40❤19🔥8💯8🙏3
🔥42