🔹The Central Bank of Egypt 🇪🇬, and the Central Bank of the UAE 🇦🇪have established a bilateral currency swap agreement valued at approximately $1.4 billion. Up to 5 billion dirhams and 42 billion Egyptian pounds would be allowed for exchange. The deal is part of Egypt's efforts to find solutions for its ongoing economic challenges and crisis.

🔹Egypt 🇪🇬is battling its worst foreign currency squeeze in years. The country has devalued the pound three times since early 2022, allowing it to lose almost half its value against the USD 💵. The IMF is urging Egyptian authorities to permit greater flexibility in the country's currency before providing additional funding as part of a $3 billion rescue program.

🔹The UAE and Egypt (both new BRICS members) are now also part of a BRICS research group looking into potential agreements on a basket of local currencies and payment systems so BRICS nations can pay each other based on a set of solutions comparing currency rates. Note that the UAE (new member) and Egypt are also dialogue partners of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

🔹The UAE 🇦🇪 offloaded $4 billion worth of US 🇺🇸 treasury bonds in June, making it the second consecutive month the country sold US government debt.The UAE and India 🇮🇳 recently signed an agreement that focuses on creating a Local Currency Settlement System, promoting bilateral transactions using the Rupee-Dirham.

🔹Previously, Russia's 🇷🇺largest oil producer Rosneft and Indian refiners agreed to use the Asia-focused Dubai 🇦🇪 oil 🛢 price benchmark. India have begun paying for this oil in UAE dirhams instead of USD.

🔹Slovakia’s populist former prime minister, Robert Fico, who campaigned on a pledge to end military aid to Ukraine, had his SMER-SSD Party winning the most seats in the country's elections (42 of 150 seats). With no party winning a majority of seats, a coalition gov't will need to be formed. The liberal, pro-western PS Party finished second with 32 seats.

🔹In third is the Hlas Party, a spin-off from SMER-SSD Party in 2018 with 27 seats. The pro western PS Party is aiming to get Hlas to form a coalition with them to prevent Fico and his party from being in gov't. However, analysts said Slovakia’s new ruling coalition would most likely be formed by Smer, Hlas and the nationalist, Slovak National Party (SNS), which would have a slim but functioning majority of 81 seats.

🔹Fico opposes EU sanctions on Russia, questions whether Ukraine can force out the invading Russian troops and wants to block Ukraine from joining NATO. He proposes that instead of sending arms to Kyiv, the EU and the U.S. should use their influence to force Russia and Ukraine to strike a compromise peace deal.

🔹Ukraine 🇺🇦 filed a complaint at the World Trade Organization against Slovakia 🇸🇰 along with Hungary & Poland who are keeping their borders closed to importing Ukrainian grain. Slovakia 🇸🇰, along with the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Croatia have managed to remain exempted from the EU embargo on Russian oil coming into their respective countries via the southern branch of the Druzbha pipeline.

Video source - Al Jazeera

🔹Leading West African cocoa producers Ghana 🇬🇭 & Ivory Coast 🇨🇮 face an uphill battle to comply with a new EU regulation preventing commodity imports linked to forest loss. The EU's De-forestation Regulation (EUDR) came into force in June 2023 with an 18-month transition for companies. Ambassadors from 17 countries have described the EUDR as an "inherently discriminatory and punitive unilateral benchmarking system. The EU's law disregards these countries' efforts to balance nature conservation with people's livelihoods.

🔹The EU 🇪🇺 did not make clear who should pay for carbon credits to offset any de-forestation, which is turning out to look like the producers from mostly poorer countries should bear the costs to be able to export into the EU. In Ghana, farmers don't get their fair share of profits because cocoa beans are not sold at the true market value. These regions need better infrastructure to for better market access and reducing losses. If the EU wanted only ethical cocoa entering Europe, then investment is a better solution than carbon credits.

🔹Even worse, Africa have historically fetched lower carbon credit prices, currently averaging less than $10 per tonne compared to over $100 in other countries. One of the better environmental solutions the Ghanaian 🇬🇭 gov't have started is for farmers to plant shade trees 🌳 to reduce the heat on the ground and increase production; they also learn how to prune effectively and apply other sustainable farming techniques.

🔹Cocoa prices have soared 47% in the past year due to El Nino, disease and other factors. Multinational chocolate🍫 makers ($130 billion in annual profits) have done everything possible to pay extremely low prices for the raw cocoa beans from Africa, only to have an a massive profit margin for the final product. To begin to counteract this, Africans are reviewing a feasibility study on establishing an African Cocoa Exchange.

Video source - African Stream

🔹Data from SWIFT (global messaging service for financial transactions) - The use of the euro 💶 has collapsed in the past nine months. It’s share in transactions dropped from 38% in January to 23.2% at the end of August, which is the lowest level recorded in, at least, twelve years. The euro has given up all the gains it made against the dollar from December 2022 to July 2023. Since mid-July, the common currency has lost nearly 8% against the dollar.

🔹Meanwhile, the European Bank 🇪🇺 for Reconstruction and Development Chief Economist Beata Javorcik warns that Russia's 🇷🇺 increase in the usage of the Chinese yuan is coming at the expense of the US dollar 💵. She continued that third countries who are not enforcing sanctions on Russia are using swap lines with the People’s Bank of China 🇨🇳.

🔹Payments using the US dollar (via SWIFT only) is climbing however at the cost of the fall in euro usage. One possibility, is Europe using USD for commodities in international markets instead of euros. The US dollar’s share of international payments via the SWIFT system hit 48% in August, the highest level since such data began being gathered. (This amidst USD denominated forex reserves in many countries in decline?).

🔹Note, de-dollarization is happening outside the SWIFT system with Russia's SPFS, China's CIPS and India's SFMS systems leading the way. In addition countries in the global south are conducting bi-lateral swaps in local currencies. Most recently BRICS+ members, UAE 🇦🇪& Egypt 🇪🇬have done so. ASEAN members Vietnam 🇻🇳, Indonesia 🇮🇩, Malaysia 🇲🇾, Thailand 🇹🇭, the Philippines 🇵🇭 and Singapore 🇸🇬 are establishing cross-border payments mechanisms using local currencies.

🔹The OPEC+ ministerial panel made no changes to the group's oil output policy (of previous cuts), and Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 said it would continue with a voluntary cut of 1 million bpd until the end of 2023, while Russia 🇷🇺would keep a 300,000 bpd voluntary export curb until the end of December.

🔹The US 🇺🇸 Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) fell by 300,000 barrels last week, with the SPR inventory still sitting at a near 40-year low of 351.3 million barrels. The Energy Department has already been forced to scrap plans to buy oil to refill the SPR due to high prices. In case of an emergency the US has 17 days of supply in the SPR.

🔹Russia’s oil and gas revenues increased 📈 by 15% from August to $7.4 billion in September, due to higher budget proceeds from the extraction tax and export duties. Imports of Russian crude oil to India 🇮🇳last month posted a substantial increase of 80% on the year, after a dip over the summer.

🔹Russia is not selling crude under the $60 price cap mechanism introduced by the G7 and EU 🇪🇺. Russian Urals crude 🛢 traded at around $83 per barrel in September, $23 over the imposed price cap. India bought Russian Urals crude at discount, $20 over the price cap.

🔹Russian seaborne oil exports soared 24% (based on weekly sales) to a three-month high in the week up to October 1. Crude oil exports from Venezuela 🇻🇪 last month topped 800,000 barrels daily, which was the second-highest monthly export rate since the start of the year.

🔹Iraq 🇮🇶 will ban cash withdrawals and transactions in U.S dollars as of Jan. 1 2024 in the latest push to curb the "misuse of its hard currency reserves" through evasion of U.S. sanctions on Iran 🇮🇷 and Syria 🇸🇾. The move aims to stamp out the "illicit use" of some 50% of the $10 billion that Iraq imports in cash from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRB-NY) each year. The country has been facing USD 💵 shortages for a long time.

🔹It's also part of a broader push to de-dollarize an economy that has seen the greenback preferred over local notes by a population weary of recurring wars and crises following the 2003 U.S. 🇺🇸 invasion. Dollars deposited in 2024 could only be withdrawn in local currency at the official rate of 1,320. The parallel market rate of the Iraqi dinar sat at 1,560 on Oct. 5th 2023. The ban would only apply to accounts receiving transfers from abroad.

🔹Iraq's regulation of wire transfers is set up with authorities in the U.S., where Iraq's $120 billion in reserves from oil 🛢 sales are held. Many local banks have already been limiting dollar cash withdrawals in the past months. Iraq is seeking a special shipment of $1 billion in cash from the FRB-NY, but U.S. officials have withheld approval.

🔹Iraqi 🇮🇶 officials with ties to powerful militias deeply involved in dollar transactions have denounced new restrictions imposed by Washington, calling them an infringement on Iraqi sovereignty. The FRB-NY has also blacklisted several Iraqi banks suspected of money laundering and carrying out suspicious transactions.

🔹The Gulf War in 1991, followed by harsh UN 🇺🇳-imposed economic sanctions and the US-led invasion in 2003, caused a substantial devaluation of the Iraqi dinar. As a result, Iraqis have turned to the US dollar for a wide range of transactions.

Video source - FirstPost

🔹The 20th Annual Valdai International Forum, titled “Fair Multipolarity: How to Ensure Security and Development for Everyone”, was held in Sochi, Russia 🇷🇺 on October 2–5, 2023. The meeting was attended by experts, politicians and diplomats from 42 countries throughout Eurasia, Africa, and South America.

🔹Russian President Vladimir Putin attended on Oct. 5th where he faced a lengthy Q&A session and delivered a short speech which totalled almost 4 hours. Highlights include:

🔸Russia could revoke its ratification of the Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty, given that the US 🇺🇸 hasn’t ratified it. Russia's retaliatory strike following a nuclear attack by a potential aggressor will leave the enemy with no chances of survival.

🔸Russia suggested ways to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh 🇦🇲🇦🇿issue before tensions flared up again in the region. "However, our Karabakh friends kept telling us... ‘We will fight’." Russian peacekeepers were killed there, protecting Karabakh Armenians. Azerbaijan’s President, I. Aliyev, promised he would ensure the safety of the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh.

🔸 BRICS member-states should now work on a single payment mechanism and move to payments in national currencies. No need for BRICS single currency.

🔸Putin on SMO- "It’s not about territories, it’s about security guarantees for the Russian people". "Ensuring the denazification" of Ukraine 🇺🇦 is a common goal .

🔸Russia and Europe share the same "civilizational code" based on Christianity. However, Europe is creating "a new Iron Curtain".

🔸 Gas is not supplied over the undamaged string of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline by decision of German 🇩🇪 authorities. Russia continues gas supply contractual agreements to Europe via Ukraine and Kiev authorities are receiving the transit fee "with delight".

🔸 The authorities have not decided yet if Russia needs private military companies.

🔸Cooperation between Beijing 🇨🇳 and Moscow has never been targeted against anyone, it is constructive in nature.

Video source- Valdai

🔹How did the world's most 'sophisticated' intelligence agency 🇮🇱 Mossad (IISO), (one that accessed Iran's purported nuclear program from the heart of Tehran), have an intelligence failure?

🔹Possibly, Israel feeling overly confident (hubristic) in their military positions, over time became too complacent and this resulted in incompetence. However, IDF guarded town borders at the Gaza Strip, is where Hamas entered. IDF military installations at the border seemed poorly guarded. Mossad assets in Palestine 🇵🇸 must have seen the prior build-up of ammo-depots and massive logistics movements.

(Factions of Hamas may have been supported by Israel since the 1970's as a 'radical Islamist' counterweight to Y. Arafat's PLO).

🔹Is a false flag possible to grant Israel 'international sentiment' in their favour to exponentially retaliate and level Gaza (the true desired outcome)? Bonus - Netanyahu led gov't grasps more political power.

🔹Western media (MSM) are misleading their respective public in creating a pretext for both whitewashing Israel's destruction of Palestine and a larger regional war. MSM luckily have their cameras rolling at exact buildings long before bombings occur. (The US 🇺🇸 is now sending multiple Navy ships to the region). Meanwhile MSM fail to report long ongoing Israeli discrimination / attacks against both Christians ✝️ and Muslims worshipping in Jerusalem.

🔹Concerns arise over Israel's Iron Dome Defense System (90-96% interception success rate) as it fails to intercept rockets headed into populated Tel-Aviv. A single battery (3 launchers of 20 missiles ea.) can protect a medium-sized city. Israel has 10 batteries. The system is designed to assess a projectile's trajectory & destroy it if it is flying towards a populated area.

🔹Hamas is reportedly using Western weapons originally supplied to Ukraine 🇺🇦. We warned of Ukraine's arms smuggling. In 2023, the US was shipping hundreds of thousands of US artillery shells to Ukraine from Israel's stockpile.

Video source - Syriana Analysis

🔹Russia's western enclave of Kaliningrad 🇷🇺 received its first cargo ship via the Northern Sea Route (NSR). The route runs from the Arctic city of Murmansk in northwestern Russia to the Bering Strait in Russia's Far East. The vessel made a stop in the port town of Baltiysk while en route to St. Petersburg from Shanghai, China 🇨🇳.

🔹Last month, a shipment of LNG 🚢 produced at the Complex near the Portovaya CS (compressor station) was the first LNG shipment in history produced by Gazprom to be transported via the NSR to China, (Tangshan LNG import terminal). Gazprom's private competitor Novatek PJSC has already been using the NSR ⚓️ to deliver gas to China.

🔹This year there have been roughly a dozen shipments of Russian oil using Russian vessels to China via the NSR. In prior years there were no oil deliveries via the Arctic to China except one trial voyage in late 2022.

🔹 The NSR is reshaping global energy flows as it now takes half the time for a tanker from Russia to arrive in Asia instead of taking the conventional route through the Suez Canal 🇪🇬. The navigation along the NSR will be fully provided with operational and high-quality ice situation information from a Russian satellite 🛰 group within the next two years.

🔹 Russia wants the NSR, the shortest shipping route between East Asia and Europe, to become a major shipping lane and has invested heavily in infrastructure there. Rosatom is discussing with Lukoil and Gazprom Neft oil companies on the possible redirection of part of the Arctic oil🛢 from the west to the east along the NSR.

🔹US 🇺🇸 Navy unmanned platforms (aided by ships/aircraft) continue to conduct enhanced maritime security operations in the Strait of Hormuz for “tracking” Iranian navy and IRG ships/small boats in the region. Iran 🇮🇷 has always said that the presence of extra-regional states in the Persian Gulf has brought nothing but insecurity for the region.

🔹The US media are making allegations that Iran is backing Hamas operations in Palestine🇵🇸, creating a future pretext for justifying Israel 🇮🇱 to possibly unleash an attack on Iran. US national security spokesperson J. Kirby without evidence has said that "Iran is complicit".

🔹However, any direct attack on Iran could result in the country blocking oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major shipping lane that carries about 20-30% of the world's oil 🛢to various markets. Attacking Iran can also backfire on the Biden admin because the US Strategic Petroleum Reserves hasn't been this low 📉 since 1983 and the US plans to refill, so therefore higher oil prices will further delay refilling. Brent crude is presently $86.68 per barrel.

🔹The US is now breaking/reneging their agreement with Iran where $6bn of Iranian oil funds 💵 held in South Korea 🇰🇷 were unfrozen in September as part of a deal that saw five US-Iranian citizens freed from captivity. Washington is backpedaling its promise by using a "quiet understanding" with go-between Qatar 🇶🇦 not to free up any of the funds for Iran.

🔹The first phone call ever between Iran's 🇮🇷 President E. Raeisi and Saudi 🇸🇦 Crown Prince M. bin Salman took place to discuss the Israel-Palestine conflict and its effects on the region. (Both countries recently resumed diplomatic ties after 7 years of tensions).

🔹Qatar 🇶🇦 refuses to bow to US pressure to withhold $6bn of frozen Iranian oil funds. Qatar's PM and FM Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said "Qatar is always committed to any agreement, and every step must be done through consultations with other partners that fund". He said Qatar will focus on the priorities of their brothers in Gaza and reduce tensions in the region.

🔹The Governor of Qatar's Central Bank, Sheikh B. M. Saoud Al Thani, asserted that his country is fully committed to all its obligations with Iran, and there is no obstacle to bolstering banking relations between the two countries. The funds would be provided to Iran through SWIFT and Letters of Credit. Iran’s 🇮🇷 FM Hossein Amirabdollahian arrived in Qatar’s capital Doha today (Oct. 14) for talks focusing on the Gaza war.

🔹This week US media reported that the Biden admin were reneging their agreement with Iran where $6bn of Iranian oil funds 💵 previously held in South Korea 🇰🇷 were unfrozen in September as part of a deal that saw five US-Iranian citizens freed from captivity. Washington is backpedaling its promise by using a "quiet understanding" with go-between Qatar 🇶🇦 not to free up any of the funds for Iran.

🔹Qatar, which has already mediated between the belligerents several times in the past — such as during the 2014 Israel 🇮🇱-Gaza 🇵🇸 War — is back at the negotiating table. But Qatar froze relations with Israel in 2009 and is widely known as a major financier of Hamas. Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh has resided mostly in Doha since 2012, and the political bureau of Hamas is located in the Qatari capital.

🔹Mark Wallace, a former US rep. at the UN 🇺🇳 says those responsible for the attacks on Israel have been operating with the help a “purported” American ally (Qatar). “We should not hesitate to act militarily on Qatari soil to bring to justice Ismail Haniyeh and Hamas leadership".

Note: The Al Udeid Air Base in Doha houses the US 🇺🇸 Air Force and is host to a forward HQ of US Central Command.

Video source: Al Jazeera

Part I - US 🇺🇸and EU foreign policy along with the EU's 🇪🇺 failing domestic energy policies jeopardize the interests of Europeans energy security in natural gas markets.

🔹Europe is very susceptible to volatility swings in natural gas markets. Early signs last week show that European gas markets do not have resilience and a strong buffer to reduce the effect of any disruption to supplies. For example, on Oct. 9th & 10th, the front-month Dutch TTF futures soared 📈 15% & 12% respectively due to shutdown of an offshore pipeline between Finland and Estonia, despite Europe's LNG storage facilities being over 95% full. The November TTF contract soared 40% last week also due to the Israel 🇮🇱 - Palestine 🇵🇸 conflict.

🔹Qatar 🇶🇦, last week signed a 27-year gas supply deal with France's Total (deliveries start in 2026). The Qatari Foreign Ministry has already petitioned the EU to pressure the 'Zionist regime' in Israel to stop the military strikes on Palestinians. But, Israel's envoy to Brussels is calling for the EU to pressure the Palestinian Authority and sanction Lebanon.

🔹Despite TTF futures being one-third the price from highs 1-year ago, Europe is now subjected to sourcing LNG around the world, making it prone to supply snarls. Accustomed to cheap Russian 🇷🇺 pipeline gas, European buyers are finding out that the LNG 🚢 spot market have very different rules, which ultimately resulted in higher—much higher—prices when a new buyer as big as the EU 🇪🇺 appeared on the stage.

🔹This means higher prices for longer. And even higher prices and the constant threat of a price shock in case of supply disruption. Volatility this winter could mean higher bills for households, as well as industrial gas consumers. Price levels and price volatility are two distinct concepts. A constant volatility at higher prices results in a greater dollar value price change at those higher prices.

Link to Part II - https://t.iss.one/TheParadigmShiftChannel/1919

Part II - US 🇺🇸and EU foreign policy along with the EU's 🇪🇺 failing domestic energy policies jeopardize the interests of Europeans energy security in natural gas markets.

🔹A full energy crisis last year was avoided after LNG imports to Europe ballooned from 80 bcm in 2021 to 130 bcm in 2022, more or less replacing all the missing Russian gas. EU imports of Russian LNG were up 40% between January and July 2023. The EU is set to import record volumes of LNG🚢 from Russia 🇷🇺 this year, despite claims of cutting reliance on Russian energy.

🔹The EU 🇪🇺 have worked so hard to wean themselves off piped Russian gas only to replace it with more expensive shipped equivalent from the US, Russia and others. EU officials have pointed to an overall effort to phase out Russian fossil fuels by 2027. EU energy ministers plan to ban Russian and Belarusian 🇧🇾 co.' s booking capacity on EU LNG infrastructure in an effort to find a legal way to prevent imports.

🔹European gas markets is exposed to volatility now from:

🔸US & EU's failed sanctions against Russian energy suppliers
🔸Sabotage of Russia-Germany 🇩🇪 Nordstream pipelines redirecting Russian gas to Asia

🔸Egypt's 🇪🇬 reduced LNG exports due to the shutdown of Israel's 🇮🇱 Tamar gas field
🔸Worker strikes at West Australia's LNG hub

🔸India 🇮🇳 and Pakistan 🇵🇰 back on the spot market driving demand
🔸Any increase in Chinese 🇨🇳 LNG demand

🔸Any black swan event amid the US & EU's lack of diplomacy towards Iran 🇮🇷
🔸Any US LNG disruption. (last month 52% of all US LNG cargo's were destined for Europe, same for August as well)

Video source - Thinkers from India - Global

Link to Part I - https://t.iss.one/TheParadigmShiftChannel/1918

A Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) Heads of State Summit and Foreign Ministers Council were convened on October 11-13 in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. 🇦🇲🇦🇿🇧🇾🇰🇿🇰🇬🇷🇺🇹🇯🇹🇲🇺🇿

🔹Russian President Putin noted that the leaders of the CIS countries are still people who are guided first and foremost by national interests as they face secondary sanctions for conducting business with Russia and Belarus. Despite these threats, economic ties and exchanges within the CIS are constantly expanding. He also expressed that CIS nations should expand the use of payments in national currencies.

🔹 The CIS FM's approved a proposal by Kazakhstan to create the categories of observer countries and partner countries for the group.

🔹Tajikistan's President E. Rahmon, stressed on the continuous implementation of the CIS economic development strategy due to growing threats to economic security.

🔹Russia will assume the CIS Presidency in 2024 and will focus on integration processes in the CIS space, in particular to strengthen the Commonwealth’s contacts with the EAEU in the economic sphere and with the CSTO and SCO in the field of security.

🔹 Russia is ready to assist Armenia and Azerbaijan to work towards and facilitate the signing of a peace treaty.

🔹Russia believes that the Israel-Palestine conflict can only be resolved through negotiations aiming to create an independent Palestine with East Jerusalem as its capital.

New Eastern Outlook Notes:
🔸Central Asian countries are experiencing unheard-of growth, much due to Russian businesses moving to the region. Tajikistan’s 7.5% GDP growth, Uzbekistan’s predicted 6.5%, Kazakhstan at 5%, followed by Kyrgyzstan seeing 4.6% GDP growth, despite sanctions and treat of secondary sanctions by Western countries.

🔸It seems former Soviet republics would want to benefit from Western stupidity. Despite the West pulling out all the stops against Russia, many countries worldwide are benefitting from and helping the Russian economy.

Video source - ShanghaiEye and MFA Russia

🔹The third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation (BRF) was held in Beijing, China 🇨🇳 on October 17-18. At the BRF, 458 outcomes were achieved and over 10,000 participants attended from more than 150 countries and 40 international organizations. Business deals worth $97.2 billion were also reached at the CEO Conference held during this forum.

🔹China also signed 🖋a slew of bilateral agreements with many countries, including a free trade agreement with Serbia. Since Chinese President Xi Jinping proposed the in 2013, China had signed more than 200 BRI cooperation agreements.

🔹China 🇨🇳 vowed more financing support for Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) projects on the basis of market and business operation, with two policy banks each setting up a 350 billion yuan ($48.75 billion) financing window and an additional 80 billion yuan injected into the Silk Road Fund. China will carry out 1,000 small-scale livelihood assistance projects.

🔹China's FM Wang Yi summarised the forum's achievements.
🔸Sending a clear signal of unity, opening-up and win-win cooperation.
🔸Consensus reached to take the BRI into a new stage of high-quality development.
🔸Vision to jointly achieve global modernization.
🔸The most prominent feature at the forum was action-oriented efficiency and pragmatism.

🔹Wang expressed willingness to link the BRI with the EU's 🇪🇺 Global Gateway strategy to play out the advantages of both China and the West. Wang said that viewing the US 🇺🇸-proposed Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment as a counter to the BRI is a means to politicize economic issues, which is short-sighted as well as negative.

Video sources - CGTN

The de-industrialisation of Germany 🇩🇪- Part 11:

🔹The HCOB German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, fell 📉 to 45.8 in Oct. from Sep.’s 46.4, below the 46.7 forecast, as GDP declined 0.2% in the quarter through Sep.

🔹Cancellations in the residential construction sector has hit a 30 year high 📈. Umland of Egeln, is declared the first municipal housing co., to be in insolvency proceedings.

🔹230 year-old fine tin-glazed pottery 🏺business Zeller Keramik of Ortenaukreis, has filed for bankruptcy.

🔹Biebelhausener Mühle GmbH (a traditional baking co. 🍞) based in Ayl-Biebelhausen since the 17th century declares insolvency.

🔹Bankruptcies on a y-o-y basis in manufacturing increased by 22.6%, in retail went up by 18.5% and in the service sector rose by 16.7%.

🔹Siemens Energy AG faces mounting issues with malfunctioning turbines and unprofitable contracts, set to push the co. to a €4.5 billion 🔻 ($4.8 billion) net loss this year. The co. may be considering shutting down Siemens Gamesa factories and sales offices.

🔹Survey among 115 works council chairmen showed that 44% of automotive suppliers are considering relocating their production abroad. The investments of German companies abroad were 125 billion euros higher than the simultaneous investments of foreign companies in Germany.

🔹Wholesale prices declined 4.1% y-o-y to the lowest level in Sep., marking the most significant drop since May 2020, signalling a weakening demand environment.

Previous parts on the de-industrialisation of Germany 🇩🇪:

💠 Part 10 - Sep. '23

💠 Part 9 - Aug. '23

💠 Part 8 - Jun. '23

💠 Part 7 - May '23

💠 Part 6 - Mar '23

💠 Part 5 - Feb. '23

💠 Part 4 - Jan. '23

💠 Part 2 and Part 3 - Nov. '22

💠 Part 1 - Oct. '22

Video source - dieBasis

🔹Derivatives that protect against a default by China's 🇨🇳 Country Garden Holdings Co. may be triggered after the developer didn’t pay interest on a dollar bond.

🔹The US 🇺🇸 Headquartered ISDA Credit Derivatives Determinations Committee, which oversee the credit default swaps (CDS) market, ruled a failure-to-pay credit event occurred on Oct. 18. Today a meeting is being deliberated on whether Country Garden missing a $15.4 million coupon payment, even after being given a 30-day grace period triggers CDS payouts.

🔹An independent corporate bond research team, said the co. has not yet officially declared a default, leaving investors in a state of uncertainty. Country Garden had 3,121 projects in Mainland China as of the end of 2022, financed by $50 billion in debt. That includes $10 billion in offshore bonds that are denominated in US 💵dollars, $2 billion in Chinese yuan, and 880 million in Hong Kong dollars.

🔹Meanwhile, one month ago, trading of Evergrande shares were halted on the Hong Kong 🇭🇰 Stock Exchange amid mounting concern over the company's plan to restructure and fend off the looming specter of liquidation. Police detained staff of Evergrande’s wealth management unit after the co. failed to repay investors.

🔹Country Garden missing this interest payment marks another low for China's current real estate 🏢 market. Evergrande which was declared to be in default in 2021 after missing a crucial repayment deadline, continues to struggle to meet the interest payments on its debts.

🔹A few days after the US 🇺🇸 ratcheted up controls on semiconductor exports to China 🇨🇳, Beijing announced that graphite sales from China will require a license as of Dec. 1st 2023. China's commerce ministry said the restrictions on graphite exports are not targeted at any specific sector. Graphite is the basis of the anode, or negative pole, of EV 🔋batteries, accounting for up to half their weight. More than 90% of anode-ready graphite is produced in China.

🔹Graphite can either be mined or derived synthetically from petrochemicals 🛢. Synthetic production is common but the pollution involved negates the underlying purpose of going green with EVs. Türkiye 🇹🇷 and Brazil 🇧🇷 hold the largest reserves of natural graphite followed by China which accounts for 80% of mine production, however.

🔹China 🇨🇳 recently imposed restrictions on exporting rare earth elements gallium and germanium that are crucial to parts of the semiconductor, telecommunications and EV industry. China produces ⛏60% of the world's germanium and 80% of gallium. Both metals are byproducts from processing other commodities such as coal and bauxite.

🔹The 'green revolution' touted by many western countries, is rapidly depleting available rare earth element neodymium (Nd) and also causing pollution. Nd is essential to make permanent magnets 🧲 for electric motors ⚙️ and wind turbines. The Bayan’obo district of the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China, has an open pit mine for rare earth's including Nd. Each metric ton of rare-earth element mined there necessitates clearing 3,230 square feet of vegetation and topsoil, and releases 1,000 metric tons of contaminated wastewater and 2,000 metric tons of solid or liquid waste tailings.

Video source - HCSS

Part 10 of The Attack on Christian Orthodoxy ☦️.

🔹A ban on Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC), has passed a first-round vote by Ukraine's 🇺🇦 parliament. "Draft law number 8371 on the prohibition of religious organizations associated with the Russian Federation 🇷🇺 was adopted after it passed 267 to 15.

🔹If an outright ban on the UOC goes through, despite the church declaring that it cut ties with the Russian Orthodox Church in May '22, church seizures and the arrests of clergymen by the state will only increase.

🔹Police tried to close down the Holy Epiphany Convent of the Ternopil diocese and evicted nuns from there.

🔹 Believers were blocked by Ukrainian authorities from passing through the town of Kremenets to the Pochaev Lavra monastery.

🔹The West/CIA politically created the schismatic Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OCU) (to foster neo-Nazi style nationalism) & undermine the UOC - Moscow Patriarchate.

🔹The Kiev regime continues the persecution of Orthodox Christians especially those who are Russian speakers. Ukraine's Azov Battalion, Right Sector & others have an unabashed profession of state paganism (not very discretely disguised in the form of vicious neo-Nazi political cults) & supports eager acolytes inciting anti-Christian pogroms while flaunting satanic inscriptions.

💠 Pt 9: Kiev regime supporters with help of police, force out believers from the UOC in Neteshin.

💠 Pt 8: Ukrainian troops shelled Donetsk’s Cathedral during Orthodox Easter Vigil.

💠 Pt 7: The Kiev regime arrests the abbot of the Kiev-Pechersk Lavra & raids church compound.

💠 Pt 6: Neo-nazi arsons burn church of the UOC in Boryspil.

💠 Pt 5: Kiev gov't inciting attacks against the UOC.

💠 Pt 4: Ukraine proposes law to ban the UOC, citing national security issues.

💠 Pt 3: The SBU raids the largest UOC monastery in Ukraine.

💠 Pt 2: Ukrainian militants shell St. Nicholas ⛪️, shot 3 monks & held 800 monks hostage.

💠 Pt 1: The West’s silence about multiple attacks on Russian Orthodox Churches around the world.

🔹US 🇺🇸 - Some officials within the Biden admin. reportedly fear the possible return of high gas prices, especially given their decision to release huge quantities of oil from the strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) in 2021 and 2022. They tapped into the SPR to bring down prices then, but they have not offset those releases. Biden opted to release 180 million barrels of oil from the SPR in late 2021 and 2022.

🔹The SPR has about 350 million barrels 🛢of supply left, it's lowest since 1983. The US Dept. of Energy decided against replenishing it in August citing high oil prices but now the prices are even higher with Brent and WTI crude hovering at $90 & $85 respectively per barrel. The US is now in a vulnerable position if the Israel 🇮🇱-Hamas 🇵🇸 war expands or otherwise disrupts the global oil market.

🔹Democrats slammed the Trump administration in 2020 for attempting to top off the SPR at a time when prices were around $25 per barrel as COVID-19 lockdowns slashed demand, saying that a replenishment would be a handout for 'Big Oil'.

🔹OPEC has, for now, side-stepped calls by Iran 🇮🇷 for an oil embargo against Israel. The OPEC+ ministerial panel made no changes this month to the group's oil output policy (of previous cuts), and Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 said it would continue with a voluntary cut of 1 million bpd until the end of 2023.

OPINION:

🔹Slovakia’s 🇸🇰 PM Robert Fico is officially sworn in. He campaigned on a pledge to end military aid to Ukraine, recently won most seats in the country's elections but not a majority and has formed a coalition gov't. It would be naive to think Brussels, the US State Dep't and European 'globalist' oligarchic structures are going to have another Victor Orban type 'populist' running around waking up Europeans to reality.

🔹This week he reportedly told journalists - “Ukraine is among the most corrupt countries in the world and we are conditioning what is excessive financial support on guarantees that European money (including Slovak) not be embezzled".

🔹PM Fico has a coalition gov't and is not in the same standing as PM Orban in Hungary whose party has a majority bloc of support. Poland🇵🇱, Austria and the Czech Republic recently introduced border controls for those entering from Slovakia, soft sanctions?

🔹PM Fico believes that the war in Ukraine began not in 2022, but in 2014 ('Maidan coup'), when Ukrainian fascists killed citizens of Russian ethnicity in Ukraine. Ukraine 🇺🇦 recently filed a complaint at the World Trade Organization against Slovakia and others who are keeping their borders closed to importing Ukrainian grain.

🔹Slovakia, along with the Czech Republic 🇨🇿, Hungary 🇭🇺, and Croatia 🇭🇷 have managed to remain exempted from the EU embargo on Russian oil coming into their respective countries via the southern branch of the Druzbha pipeline.

Video source - Euronews