Crude Oil Update:

🔹 The IEA reported Russia's 🇷🇺 revenue from oil exports for July hit the highest level in 2023 (up by $2.5 billion to $15.3 billion) as the price of Russian seaborne crude moved above the G7 imposed $60 price cap on average for the month of July. India’s 🇮🇳 crude oil imports from Russia in June were the cheapest since Feb. 2022 (excludes shipping).

🔹 Russia may have earned an additional $1.2 billion in the three months to July by exploiting a loophole in the G7 oil price cap because they have been selling their crude to India at below the price cap, but overcharged for shipping costs (since shipping costs are not included in this price ceiling). FT analyzed the fees and charges on tankers leaving the Baltic Sea ports in Russia for India. The findings suggest that the overcharging for shipping costs, plus the fees for Russia-linked tankers 🚢, may have boosted 📈 Russia’s oil trade revenues.

🔹China 🇨🇳 imported an average of 10.29 million bpd 🛢 of crude oil in July, a significant decrease from June but still 17% higher year-over-year. Russia has begun rerouting oil previously destined for Europe to China and Asia via the Arctic Ocean’s North Sea Route.

🔹 Oil supply from the OPEC+ group dipped in July by 1.2 million bpd to 50.7 million bpd, the lowest level in nearly two years as Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 began its unilateral production cut of 1 million bpd. Crude oil exports from Iran have gone up to 1.4 million bpd, exceeding its stipulated budgeted amount.

🔹 Russia will cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September, on top of the already pledged cut of around 500,000 bpd from March until year-end. The US 🇺🇸 is again delaying a replenishment of the nation’s emergency oil reserve (SPR) because of market conditions.

🔹European natural gas prices soared 📈 15% today following last week's 40% jump due to increasing labor action risks in Australia 🇦🇺. Potential strikes at three top LNG sites operated by Chevron and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. could disrupt global supplies. These three locations account for as much as 10% of global LNG exports.

🔹Dutch front-month TTF futures is trading around €39 a megawatt-hour (lower compared to last year). The good news for Europe is that demand for natural gas remains soft as heating season has not arrived yet and German 🇩🇪 factories that use natural gas continue to close down leading Europe into de-industrialization. Storage facilities across the continent are 89.45% full, the highest level for this time of year in over a decade.

🔹The bad news for Europe is it is now subjected to sourcing the LNG around the world, making it prone to supply snarls. Accustomed to cheap Russian 🇷🇺 pipeline gas, European buyers are finding out that the LNG 🚢 spot market have very different rules, which ultimately resulted in higher—much higher—prices when a new buyer as big as the EU 🇪🇺 appeared on the stage.

🔹This means higher prices for longer. And even higher prices and the constant threat of a price shock in case of supply disruption. Volatility this winter could mean higher bills for households, as well as industrial gas consumers. Price levels and price volatility are two distinct concepts. A constant volatility at higher prices results in a greater dollar value price change at those higher prices.

🔹Meanwhile, U.S. 🇺🇸 natural gas futures rose as hotter-than-normal weather kept cooling demand high, with consumption set to rise further into next week.

Video source- Bloomberg

🔹India's 🇮🇳 top oil refiner (IOC) made the first payment in Indian rupees (not USD) for the purchase of a million barrels of oil from the UAE's 🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). Both countries benefited from reduced dependence on a third-party currency, potentially lowering exchange rate risks and transaction costs.

🔹The UAE now offers India discounts on crude 🛢oil which forms the single-largest component of India’s $84-billion bilateral trade with the UAE. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been silently pursuing the internationalisation of it's Structured Financial Messaging System (SFMS) with the UAE through last month's agreements on trade settlements in rupees / dirhams & linking their payment systems as one more step towards bypassing SWIFT 🌐.

🔹The agreement focuses on creating a Local Currency Settlement System, promoting bilateral transactions using the Rupee-Dirham, encompassing all current account transactions and permitted capital account transactions.

🔹Previously, Russia's 🇷🇺largest oil producer Rosneft and the IOC agreed to use the Asia-focused Dubai 🇦🇪 oil price benchmark. India have begun paying for this oil in UAE dirhams instead of USD. India is prepared to trade in rupees with nations facing a shortage of dollars 💵 so as to "disaster-proof" them and effectively boost its exports.

🔹Four days ago two Indian Naval 🚢 ships, participated in a bilateral Naval Maritime Partnership Exercise with the UAE Navy increasing regional security for maritime trade. Yesterday Dubai's iconic Burj Khalifa was illuminated in the colours of India's flag 🇮🇳 to celebrate India's 77th Independence Day. It also displayed "Happy Independence Day to Mother India" and "Long Live India UAE Friendship".

Video source - Mint

How far will the US and EU go, to fully control Moldovan internal affairs?

🔹 By sanctioning the top Moldovan 🇲🇩 opposition party (Shor Party) leader Ilan Shor, the EU 🇪🇺 is working hand-in-hand with the country’s unpopular gov't to stifle dissent. Without any evidence Shor is accused of working with the Kremlin 🇷🇺 after organizing protests against the high cost of living crisis. The Moldovan judiciary is also being weaponised in attempts to ban the opposition party.

🔹Shor as well as his deputy, Marina Tauber, launched applications to the EU General Court to have the restrictions dismissed. The gov't is also stifling any dissent through the media. The licenses of six TV channels deemed 'pro-Russian' have been suspended since December 2022.

🔹Moldova 🇲🇩 has received €250 million in grants and loans from the EU 🇪🇺 since it was granted candidate status last summer, and $320 million from Washington 🇺🇸. This week Moldova expelled 45 Russian diplomats and other embassy staff claiming antennas on the embassy roof is for spying.

🔹In June, thousands gathered in Chisinau to rally for the future continued celebration of Victory Day as the pro-EU gov't attempts to cancel the holiday. The Grayzone recently revealed the level of corruption in the gov't as Western businesses pay for influence though those close to the Moldovan president. Moldovan politician and lawyer Stanislav Pavlovschi revealed that the US 🇺🇸 ambassador 'governs' Moldova.

🔹In May, Moldovan police raided the central election commission of Gagauzia, alleging irregularities after a politician championing better relations with Russia 🇷🇺 so as to ease the energy crisis, won the local gubernatorial vote. Moldovans 🇲🇩 have been holding regular protests over their dissatisfaction of inflation, cutting off Russian supplied energy and the lack of a neutral status.

Video of Former Moldovan President Igor Dodon - Source (IntelRepublic)

🔹In July, 2023, Japan increased grain (cereal) imports from Russia by 5,679.4% 📈 compared to the same period in 2022, according to the Ministry of Finance of Japan 🇯🇵. This may be an early sign of Japan easing on sanctions against Russia 🇷🇺 in this commodity sector. The reason for this spike is Japan imported 3641MT of grain in July '23 versus 63MT in July '22 when the country was heavily enforcing sanctions on Russian goods, shipping companies and shipping insurance providers.

🔹In total, Japan's imports of grain 🌾 from around the world for July '23 is consistent and normal compared to previous years (Infographic). This sudden spike may be related to the ending of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. However it is not clear if Japan was importing grain under the grain deal because most of the grain ended up in Türkiye 🇹🇷 and the EU 🇪🇺 (see comment section).

🔹Japan's 🇯🇵 imports of grains from Russia in the first six months of 2023 increased by almost 510% compared to the same period last year. Ironically, while Japan was increasing shipments of Russian grain in July '23, it's Foreign Ministry made a press release on July 18th, brutally condemning Russia for ending the grain deal. Note, Japan heavily depends on the US 🇺🇸 for it's grain supply and somewhat Brazil 🇧🇷, not Russia.

🔹However, Japan drastically decreased 📉 it's imports of Russian 🇷🇺 nonferrous ore, nonferrous metals and steel in July '23. This may be linked to an acute economic slowdown that resulted in the country 🇯🇵suffering a trade deficit last month as exports sank for the first time in more than two years. Trade 🚢 volume between Russia and Japan in July '23 decreased by 51%, to approximately $715 million, compared to the same period of the last year.

🔹An unannounced 90 minute meeting (Aug. 18th) between Saudi Arabia's 🇸🇦Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Iran's 🇮🇷 Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian was the highest-level meeting between Saudi and Iranian officials since their countries resumed ties in March after relations were cut in 2016. The last visit of an Iranian FM to Saudi Arabia was that of Mohammad Javad Zarif in 2015.

🔹The two discussed bilateral relations, ways to enhance cooperation, and regional issues. Iranian FM Amir-Abdollahian also took the opportunity to reiterate the Islamic republic's support for the Palestinian 🇵🇸cause at a time when Riyadh is in discussions with the US 🇺🇸 about potentially normalising ties with Israel 🇮🇱. The two sides exchanged competing statements over a disputed gas field that Saudi Arabia plans to develop jointly with Kuwait 🇰🇼.

🔹The China 🇨🇳-brokered deal in March saw the long-time rivals agree to restore diplomatic relations and reopen their respective embassies. Saudi 🇸🇦FM Prince Faisal confirmed that the Saudi embassy in Tehran has also resumed operations. FM 🇮🇷 Amir-Abdollahian's visit to Riyadh came two months after Prince Faisal became the first Saudi foreign minister to travel to Iran since 2006. In April, FM Prince Faisal was the first Saudi official to visit Syria 🇸🇾 since 2011.

🔹Since the March deal, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦has ramped up a push for peace in Yemen, holding direct talks with Houthi leaders in April in the Yemeni 🇾🇪capital Sanaa. It has also championed the return of key Iran ally Syria to the Arab League at a summit in May.

Video sources - Reuters & ShanghaiEye

🔹India 🇮🇳is considering imposing an export ban on four key metals; lithium, beryllium, niobium, and tantalum because of their importance in powering sectors critical to national security and technological advancements. India’s Parliament also passed the Mines and Minerals Amendment Bill, which will allow commercial mining ⛏in India, of titanium and zirconium addition to the previous mentioned metals. The Bill now awaits the President’s assent.

🔹India discovered a large lithium deposit near Kashmir, this year but is about a decade away from final production. Iran 🇮🇷 discovered its first lithium ore deposit in March, making it the world's 2nd largest reserve. Australia 🇦🇺 has identified at least five mines of of lithium and cobalt for Indian entities to participate in exploration/production. India is discussing the possibility of FTAs with Lithium Triangle countries Peru 🇵🇪 and Chile.

🔹A coalition of US 🇺🇸 tech giants has also protested the abrupt way in which India introduced tech import restrictions this month. The restriction requires Indian companies to get a license before importing PCs, laptops, or servers in hopes of boosting domestic tech production as more countries try to have less dependence on China's 🇨🇳 dominance of critical sectors.

🔹More than 50 companies from around the world are jostling to negotiate lithium deals under the Chilean 🇨🇱 gov't's new plan to have the state take a majority stake in the lithium 🔋industry where the state would take a controlling interest in each partnership. Mexico 🇲🇽 is also reviewing foreign companies that have active mining concessions, with plans to follow in Chile's footsteps.

🔹Saudi Arabia’s 🇸🇦 US Treasury holdings fell to a more than six-year low in June. Saudi Arabia, the largest Middle East holder of US gov't debt, sold more than $3 billion of its shares in June. This brought down Riyadh's total holdings to $108.1 billion, the lowest since December 2016. The Saudi sovereign wealth fund’s disclosed holdings of US 🇺🇸-traded stocks rose almost 10% in value to about $39 billion in the second quarter.

🔹Historically Saudi Arabia used to keep most of its reserves in US Treasuries 💵, but with the country’s diversification strategy Vision 2030 backed by the country’s sovereign wealth fund results in investments being redirected domestically. Oil revenues, are fueling these projects.

🔹Saudi Arabia's cut in oil 🛢 production through OPEC has hindered the US from re-filling its Strategic Petroleum Reserve as oil prices have increased. Closer ties between China and the Middle East have raised concerns in Washington DC 🇺🇸 and European 🇪🇺 capitals after Saudi Arabia signed $10 billion worth of investment agreements with Chinese 🇨🇳companies in June.

🔹The UAE 🇦🇪 offloaded $4 billion worth of US treasury bonds in June, making it the second consecutive month the country sold US government debt. Its holding fell to $65.2 billion from $69 billion in May 2023. Kuwait 🇰🇼 shares of the US debt instrument fell to $40.6 billion in June from $41.4 billion in May. However, much this was off-set by Japan 🇯🇵 increasing US Treasury purchases for June.

🔹China 🇨🇳, the second-biggest holder of US debt, has reduced its stake to the lowest level in more than 14 years. It now holds about $850 billion of US debt, lower than its all-time high of over $1.2 trillion.

Video source - Sean Foo

BRICS Summit highlights. Johannesburg Aug. 22 - 24.

🔹Argentina🇦🇷, Egypt 🇪🇬, the UAE 🇦🇪, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦, Iran 🇮🇷 and Ethiopia 🇪🇹 will become full-members on Jan. 1, 2024, (the first day of Russia's presidency of BRICS). More than 20 countries have applied to join BRICS as Algeria 🇩🇿 and Indonesia 🇮🇩 are proposed to be the next future members. BRICS will develop a BRICS partner country model for even further expansion.

🔹Member states finance ministries & central banks to consider the possibility of launching national currencies-based payment instruments and platforms. BRICS Payment Task Force to begin study of members cross-border payments systems.

🔹Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development does not expect any "quick breakthroughs" in the creation of a common currency of the BRICS 🇧🇷🇷🇺🇮🇳🇨🇳🇿🇦 nations. There could be, agreements on a basket of local currencies and payment systems so BRICS nations can pay each other based on a set of solutions comparing currency rates.

🔹However, the Russian 🇷🇺 Finance Ministry is discussing the possibility of a unit of account for the BRICS member countries. Not a single currency like in the EU but an alternative to the dollar 💵.

🔹The BRICS Summit declaration states they are in favor of UN 🇺🇳 reform and vow support for the expansion of the developing countries' representation in the UN Security Council. It also cites reforming the WTO and Bretton Woods financial institutions, including the IMF.

🔹India 🇮🇳 offers BRICS countries to establish a space research consortium as they already work on work on a satellite group of BRICS states.

🔹Brazil's 🇧🇷 Treasury Minister Fernando Haddad, confirmed that the Brazilian gov't wants to help Argentina 🇦🇷with exports using the Chinese 🇨🇳Yuan, instead of the dollar for payment. A guarantee, will be activated only if there is a default by the Argentines even in yuan.

🔹The guarantee to be given will be from $100 million to $140 million USD 💵 equivalent, with the conversion (yuan to Brazilian real) made by Banco do Brasil in London. After the exchange, Brazilian exporters will receive payments directly in real.

🔹The proposal is beneficial for Brazilian exporters 🚢, who face difficulties in closing deals with Argentines due to the lack of USD Forex reserves in Argentina which resulted in heavy devaluation of the Argentina Peso. Both countries have said they wanted to "advance discussions on a common South American currency" to be used for financial and trade flows.

🔹Bolivia 🇧🇴 recently started using the Chinese 🇨🇳 yuan to pay for imports and exports with China becoming the third country in South America (after Argentina 🇦🇷 and Brazil 🇧🇷), to do so. The IMF may have to accept the Chinese yuan as a currency for countries to settle their obligations with the IMF following Argentina’s recent debt repayment in yuan, since the yuan is part of the IMF's SDR basket of currencies.

🔹Discussion recently began on the revival of the regional bloc previously known as the Union of South American Nations, or UNASUR. The Southern Common Market (Mercosur), {a customs union comprising of 12 Latin American countries with a free intra-zone trade & a common trade policy} have aired concerns that the South American region is seriously affected by the restrictions and regulations imposed by the US financial system.

Video Source- CanalGov (Treasury Minister Fernando Haddad)

🔹Vietnam will join ASEAN members Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Singapore to establish cross-border payments mechanisms through the Regional Payment Connectivity (RPC) initiative. Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have agreed to later facilitate cross-border transactions for financial assets like equities and government bonds in local currencies.

🔹These countries have a mandate to include other ASEAN 🇧🇳 🇰🇭 🇮🇩 🇱🇦🇲🇾 🇲🇲 🇵🇭 🇸🇬 🇹🇭 🇻🇳 members in the RPC initiative. Vietnam's financial authority in charge of domestic payment systems is currently in talks with the local industry to agree on a national QR system for 'instant' retail payments.

🔹Last month, Russia 🇷🇺, (meeting with ASEAN) called for starting consultations on the use of national currencies in mutual payments with ASEAN countries to bypass USD 💵 denominated transactions.

🔹ASEAN member Indonesia plan to use local currencies in bilateral trade with India 🇮🇳. In May, South Korea 🇰🇷 and Indonesia 🇮🇩 signed a MoU to cooperate on promoting the use of their currencies for bilateral transactions. The Bank of Indonesia is working on its own domestic card payment system as part of a strategy to reduce dependency on foreign systems and protect transactions from geopolitical fallout.

🔹Last November, an official meeting of all ASEAN nations' Finance Ministers & Central Bank Governors was held to discuss reduced dependence on the US Dollar, Euro, Yen, and British Pound from financial transactions and move to settlements in local currencies.

Video source - Bank Indonesia

🔹 Officers from the Gabonese 🇬🇦 Armed Forces have appointed the chief of the Republican Guard, General Brice Oligui Nguema, as the Central African country’s new ruler following the ouster of President Ali Bongo. Nguema was chosen to lead the former French colony’s transition council. The overthrown president had been placed under house arrest, while his son N. B. Valentin, as well as certain gov't officials, had been arrested for “high treason.”

🔹The military takeover follows August 26th's presidential election which was rigged for the now former President Ali Bongo winning with 64.27% of the vote. When counting of the votes was almost completed, the then Bongo led gov't cut off the country's internet and put a curfew in place citing the risk of violence.

🔹Gabon 🇬🇦 is the world’s second-biggest manganese producer after South Africa, and Comilog (a subsidiary of French owned Eramet) extracts 90% of Gabon’s manganese ⛏. Another subsidiary of the French 🇫🇷 controlled Eramet is Setrag, which operates the Trans-Gabon Railway, the country’s only railway, where the manganese and other raw materials (oil, wood, uranium) are exported out of the country.

🔹The TotalEnergies EP Gabon subsidiary is 58.28% owned by France's 🇫🇷 TotalEnergies SE, 25% by the Gabonese Republic and 16.72% by the public. It's Q2 2023 oil production was 15,700 bpd 🛢 with revenues amounting to $107 million for the quarter. Perenco, headquartered in London & Paris, extracts 65,000 bpd of oil and 680,000m3 of gas per day in Gabon.

🔹The UN 🇺🇳 Secretary General A. Guterres, the US 🇺🇸, Canada 🇨🇦, UK 🇬🇧 and France 🇫🇷 have all condemned the coup, calling for a return to "democratic, civilian-led governance". The EU 🇪🇺 calls for restraint from all parties in Gabon. The African Union’s Peace and Security Council decided to “immediately suspend” Gabon from its activities. The West controlled ECOWAS bloc has also condemned the coup. France has 400 troops based in Gabon.

🔹Oil prices hit 7-month highs amid an expected extension of a voluntary production cut by Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 of 1 million bpd into October and Russia 🇷🇺cutting exports by 300,000 bpd in September, following a 500,000 bpd cut in August. China's 🇨🇳 manufacturing activity unexpectedly expanded in August.

🔹The price of Russia’s flagship crude grade, Urals, averaged $74 per barrel in August, way above the G7/EU price cap of $60 as Western shippers find alternative shipping insurance providers for Urals cargo and Russia's shadow fleet 🚢 continue to deliver oil bypassing the price cap.

🔹Russia has been exploiting a loophole in the oil price cap by selling their crude to India 🇮🇳 at below the price cap, but overcharged for shipping costs (since shipping costs are not included in this price ceiling).

🔹The oil price cap is evidently failing as President Putin recently signed into law amendments in the tax code in the energy sector which will narrow the discount of Urals crude to Brent to $20 per barrel 🛢 from September from a $25 discount. Russia also raised its oil export levy to $21.40 per ton started on September 1, the highest level this year, with the previous oil export duty being $16.90 per ton.

🔹Moscow is unlikely to give in to the mandate discounted price in the foreseeable future. The EU 🇪🇺 will now be challenged to increase oil imports from countries without discounts, leaving Europe to face the surge in oil prices for the short term at least.

🔹The IEA reported Russia's revenue from oil exports for July hit the highest level 📈 in 2023 (up by $2.5 billion to $15.3 billion). The US's 🇺🇸 Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is still sitting at a near 40-year low of 349.5 million barrels.

🔹EU 🇪🇺 imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) were up 40% between January and July 2023. The EU is set to import record volumes of LNG🚢 from Russia 🇷🇺 this year, despite claims of cutting reliance on Russian energy. In the first 7 months of 2023, Belgium 🇧🇪 and Spain were the second and third-biggest buyers of Russian LNG behind China 🇨🇳. For this period, Russian LNG accounted for 21.6mn cubic metres (cm), or 16%, of the EU’s total 133.5mn cm of LNG imports.

🔹In that period, EU’s purchases of Russian LNG were worth $5.75 billion (5.29 billion euros). Spain is bought up 18% and the EU 52% of Russia’s LNG exports. Spain's 🇪🇸 Energy Minister T. Ribera ironically said Russian LNG should be part of EU talks on sanctions. The jump comes from a low base as the EU did not import significant amounts of LNG before Feb. 2022 due to its reliance on piped gas from Russia.

🔹The EU 🇪🇺 have worked so hard to wean themselves off piped Russian gas only to replace it with more expensive shipped equivalent from the US, Russia and others. EU officials have pointed to an overall effort to phase out Russian fossil fuels by 2027. EU energy ministers plan to ban Russian and Belarusian 🇧🇾 co.' s booking capacity on EU LNG infrastructure in an effort to find a legal way to prevent imports.

🔹The EU also banned Russian entities from storing gas in the bloc and prohibited most new investments in the Russian energy sector. Spot LNG prices have fallen significantly since last summer. As of last month, prices cooled by nearly 83% compared to 2022. The EU's gas storage tanks are nearly 92% full.

🔹However, market uncertainties, including the risk of strikes at LNG hubs in Australia 🇦🇺, or a spike in industrial demand can ignite volatility in European gas markets. A full energy crisis last year was avoided after LNG imports to Europe ballooned from 80 bcm in 2021 to 130 bcm in 2022, more or less replacing all the missing Russian gas.

🔹The prices of Vietnam's 🇻🇳 exported rice (the world's third-largest exporter after India and Thailand) remain the highest in the world, with 5% broken rice reaching US$638 per tonne, following India's 🇮🇳 recent ban on its largest rice export category (non-basmati white rice). At the Mekong Delta known as Vietnam's rice bowl, where 90% of the nation’s rice exports are grown, farmers said they can barely keep up with the demand.

🔹 Last month, India has imposed a 20% duty on exports of parboiled rice with immediate effect. Rice prices in key exporting countries have climbed around 20% since India's export ban. They have made an exemption for friendly countries, with export quotas of non-basmati white rice to Bhutan 🇧🇹, Mauritius 🇲🇺and Singapore 🇸🇬.

🔹Rice🌾 prices soared to the highest in almost 15 years in Asia on mounting concerns over global supplies as dry weather (drier conditions with the onset of El Nino) threatens production in Thailand.

🔹Last week, the Philippines 🇵🇭 (world's second-largest rice importer) imposed a price cap on retail rice due to soaring food inflation. Indonesia is looking to import rice from Cambodia 🇰🇭 and Myanmar 🇲🇲 to top up gov't stocks. Myanmar plans to temporarily restrict rice exports to control rising domestic prices. In July, The UAE banned rice exports and re-exports for four months.

🔹Earlier this year, Thailand 🇹🇭 saw strong demand & a strengthening Thai currency has also helped to push up dollar-denominated rice prices. In September 2022, India banned exports of broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on exports of various grades of rice. This came after planting areas of the crop declined by 13% due to heatwaves and drought. China 🇨🇳 is virtually self-sufficient in rice. Imports of rice only account for 3% of the nation's total demand.

Video source - CNA

The de-industrialisation of Germany 🇩🇪- Part 10:

🔹The HCOB Flash Germany Composite PMI Output Index - which gauges activity in the manufacturing and services sectors -fell to 44.7 in August, from 48.5 in July, the lowest level since May 2020.

🔹German Chamber of Commerce and Industry Survey -
52% of co.'s say the 'green' energy transition has a negative impact on their own business.
32% of industrial co.'s plan relocation of capacities abroad or reduction of production in Germany.

🔹 Mail order retailer 📦, Klingel GmbH (Bell group) declares bankruptcy after 100 years in operation.

🔹German industrial 🏭 production weakened further in July, with energy-intensive industry approaching again the low, set in Dec. 2022.

🔹50,600 businesses closed down in H1 2023, an increase 📈 of 12.4% compared to H1 2022. In balance, there has been an increase in new start-ups. The number of corporate insolvencies rose 23.8% in July compared to July '22.

🔹 The outflow of capital from Germany since 2013 has exceeded $600 billion, with almost half of that happening in the last two years.

🔹Allensbach Survey -
58% of business executives said that Germany has passed its zenith.
76% of managers believe that concerns are justified over de-industrialization.

🔹 The ifo Business Climate Index (July 2023) has fallen 📉 for the third month in a row.

🔹The number of company bankruptcies in EU 🇪🇺 countries in Q2 2023 increased by 8.4% compared to Q1, reaching the highest level measured since 2015, when data began to be collected.

Previous parts on the de-industrialisation of Germany 🇩🇪:

💠 Part 9 - Aug. '23

💠 Part 8 - Jun. '23

💠 Part 7 - May '23

💠 Part 6 - Mar '23

💠 Part 5 - Feb. '23

💠 Part 4 - Jan. '23

💠 Part 2 and Part 3 - Nov. '22

💠 Part 1 - Oct. '22

Video source - AfD Clips

Gold Update:

🔹 China 🇨🇳 added to its gold reserves for a 10th straight month, as it tries to diversify away from the US dollar. The PBOC reserves rose by 930,000 troy oz. in August with total reserves at 2,165 tons officially (True estimates may be closer to 5,029 tonnes). This is the longest buying spree by the PBOC since Sept. 2019 and before that the last wave of inflows was in late 2016.

🔹 Around the world, institutions added 55 tonnes of the yellow metal to their reserves last month. The National Bank of Poland 🇵🇱 in July, purchased 22 tonnes, taking the institution’s total reserves to 299 tonnes. The Central Bank of Türkiye 🇹🇷 also added an extra 17 tonnes of gold to its reserves.

🔹Egypt 🇪🇬 ranked fifth in the Arab world after its gold reserves rose by 24% to reach 125.8 tons in first half of 2023. Belarus, under Western sanctions had its gold and foreign currency reserves went up by $17.7 million (or 0.2%) in August.

🔹Both the Iranian 🇮🇷 state and private citizens appear to have been turning to gold recently, after May's demand for gold coins and bars by Iranians had jumped dramatically, with investment soaring to 13 tons over the first months of 2023 – 26 percent more than the 10 ton five-year quarterly average.

🔹 An increasing number of countries are repatriating gold reserves as protection against the sort of sanctions imposed by the West on Russia 🇷🇺. These developments have spooked the West. The IMF recently demanded that the gov't of Ghana 🇬🇭 make full disclosure of it's ongoing gold for oil trade deals if it wants the IMF to fulfil a $3 billion Extended Credit Facility programme.

Video source - GoldSilver

Highlights from the 8th Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), held on 10–13 Sept. 2023 in Vladivostok, Russia 🇷🇺. Delegations from 53 countries along with 300 companies from China attended to strengthen ties and investment opportunities, with a main focus on Russia's Far East.

🔹Foreign Affairs:

Russia pushes for Mongolia 🇲🇳 to become a full-fledged member of the SCO. Laos 🇱🇦 Vice President Pany Yathotou expresses gratitude to Russia for its assistance since 2018 in locating and eliminating unexploded mines left over from the Vietnam War. Russia is working towards abolishing visa requirements for a number of Asian countries. Russia issued more than 600,000 entry visas in the first eight months of 2023, which is twice as many as in the same period of 2022.

🔹Finance/ Economy:

Russia is working on launching MIR payment cards in Thailand 🇹🇭. Projects with investments of more than $2.07 billion USD are planned on Russky Island in Russia’s Primorsky Territory. Payments by small and mid-sized businesses in yuan soared six-fold in the first 7 months of 2023.

🔹Infrastructure/Development:

Russian nuclear Rosatom and China's 🇨🇳 LS Group, will cooperate on a hydrogen plant project in Sakhalin. High-speed motorways will be built via Siberia and the Far East to the Pacific in an integrated 'Russia' transport corridor. Copper concentrate production started at Udokan, Russia's largest undeveloped copper deposit as an EEF milestone.

🔹Trade:

X5 Group to launch a multi-temperature wholesale and distribution logistics hub in Khabarovsk, 30 km from the China–Russia border. Russia Post plans to open a logistics co. in the UAE 🇦🇪. Trade turnover between Russia and the Asia-Pacific region surged 13.7% in 2022 and has jumped another 18.3% to date in 2023.

🔹Lithuania 🇱🇹 will confiscate Russian cars upon entry of it's borders except those using the Kaliningrad transit. Estonia 🇪🇪 is considering a proposal to re-register or confiscate cars with Russian license plates already within its borders. Latvia 🇱🇻 declares it can exercise confiscation of vehicles at the border in some cases.

🔹The European Commission 🇪🇺 issued guidelines to ban (with cases including confiscation) vehicles 🚗 🚛 (both private & commercial) with Russian license plates entering EU member states. The guidelines also include a ban on items such as razor blades, deodorants, soap, clothing etc. , but also items that could have a military application, like pneumatic tires, radio systems and electric generators.

🔹Estonia intends to be the first in the EU 🇪🇺 to 'legalise' the confiscation of sanctioned Russian assets. Despite the EU's ban, Russia will not introduce retaliatory restrictions for EU citizens. The EU is reportedly planning to siphon off profits accrued by more than €200 billion of frozen Russian Central Bank assets.

🔹EU states are considering Italy's anti-mafia type laws as a concept to confiscate sanctioned Russian assets. EU officials are fixed on legalizing illegality by confiscating private property outside the framework of a criminal trial. The EU has been looking into the 'legal' options (non-existent) to confiscate Russia’s 🇷🇺 assets frozen under sanctions.

🔹The EU's action undermines ‘Lex Mercatoria’ (Latin – ‘Merchant Law’). The autonomous legal order ⚖️ of international economic relations for trade & rules for settling disputes. The West has now destroyed, how money & currencies function in relationship to trade & private property rights.

Video- Daniel Ferrie - European Commission spokesperson.

🔹 Japan 🇯🇵 - The yen's significant devaluation against the US dollar 💵 is eroding the purchasing power of Japanese residents, pushing them to invest in gold. Buying of yen-denominated gold at the nation’s largest dealer has driven the price of the yellow metal above the ¥10,000 per gram level. Gold prices have shot up 📈 about 70% over the past three and a half years from under ¥5,900 yen in January 2020.

🔹 This reflects the dramatic collapse in the value of the yen 💴, which recently passed ¥147 against the US dollar. The BoJ bought a record 135 trillion yen ($1 trillion) in gov't bonds in fiscal 2022 as it tried to keep interest rates low. Still, interest rates continued to rise, forcing the BOJ to raise the target ceiling for the yield on 10-year gov't bonds. Investors sold government bonds, leading to a spike in interest rates.

🔹 The BOJ owned more than 50% of outstanding Japanese gov't bonds as of the end of 2022. In a strange twist, Japanese investors bought the most overseas bonds since March 2020, in early September 2023. Maybe Japanese banks bought U.S. 🇺🇸 long-term treasuries amid the idea that rate rises are close to over?

🔹 The BoJ's ultra-low interest rate policy has failed to boost the world’s third-largest economy in a sustainable way, sending inflation toward a 40-year high. Japanese investors sold a record amount of overseas debt last year as local yields rose on speculation that the BOJ would normalize policy.

🔹The IMF proposed to the BoJ to allow for more flexibility in long-term Japanese gov't bond yields that have been kept at depressed levels amid the "costly" side-effects of prolonged monetary easing. In Jan. 2023, the 🇯🇵 BOJ made massive unscheduled bond purchases after it announced a widening of the range in which the 10-year yield can trade to about 0.5% from 0.25%.

Video source - Sean Foo

🔹Director of the Office of China's 🇨🇳 Foreign Affairs Commission and Foreign Minister (FM) Wang Yi visited Russia during Sept. 18-21 on invitation from the Russian Security Council Secretary N. Patrushev. He is taking part in the 18th round of Russian-Chinese strategic security consultations. Secretary of the Mongolian 🇲🇳 National Security Council J. Enkhbayar was also present at one of the consultations.

🔹Russian 🇷🇺 FM S. Lavrov informed his visiting Chinese counterpart, about the results of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s visit to Russia. Minister Yi informed his Russian counterpart, about topics talked with US 🇺🇸National Security Adviser J. Sullivan. Russia's Security Council and FM Yi exchanged views about Washington's creation of new blocs and dividing lines in the Asia-Pacific region, as well as the strengthening of NATO's presence in Asia and the Pacific, which is aimed at undermining the established security system in the region.

🔹Russian President V. Putin will visit China in October for the Belt and Road Forum. China and Russia will strengthen security cooperation in response to the current challenges. Russia hopes for coordinated efforts by both countries at the upcoming Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit. Both countries have already achieved positive results from successfully coordinating policies with the states of the Global South.

🔹Beijing and Moscow are pursuing an independent foreign policy and their cooperation is not aimed against other countries. According to Prof. Guo Xinning, China 🇨🇳and Russia 🇷🇺may promote closer cooperation between the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Collective Security Treaty Organization.