🔹The Black Sea grain deal has been “terminated”. Russia 🇷🇺 will immediately return to the arrangement when all parties concerned implement the previously agreed steps. The last extension of the deal expired today, as Russia hinted this past week of reluctance to renew it.

🔹The grain deal provided assurances that ships won’t be attacked entering and leaving Ukrainian ports ⚓️, while a separate agreement (was never fulfilled) facilitated the movement of Russian food and fertilizer. The suspension sent wheat 🌾 futures up 3% in Chicago trading, to $682 per ton.

🔹This morning, at 0300 UTC+3 (July 17th), the Crimean Bridge was attacked by two Ukrainian unmanned sea vehicles launched from and surveilled using the Black Sea, resulting in the death of civilians. Last week, Kiev’s forces launched a missile at the key link but failed to break through Russian air defenses. The termination of the grain deal also provides room for Russia to take action against NATO 🇫🇲 using civilian ships 🚢 in the Black Sea as cover for weapons transport/planning attacks.

TIMELINE of grain deal:

💠 May '23 - Russia extends grain deal for 60 days after Türkiye 🇹🇷 ensures work towards full implementation.

💠 Mar '23 - Russia extended the grain deal for 60 days instead of 120 days because of failures to remove restrictions on Russian agricultural exports. Most grain from Ukraine goes to the EU 🇪🇺 for animal feed at dumping prices, not to the poorest countries.

💠 Nov '22 - Russia resumes participation to the Black Sea grain deal after guarantee to lift restrictions. Russia suspends grain deal after ships in the Black Sea were attacked by Ukraine 🇺🇦.

💠 Oct '22 - Grain deal hypocrisy by western countries, exposed after UN 🇺🇳 rep. visits Moscow.

💠 Jun/Jul '22 - African Union representatives visit Russia to discuss food crisis in Africa. Grain deal signed with UN/Türkiye safe routes 🚢 made in Black Sea. Previous deal was botched by Ukraine after they mined the Black Sea.

🔹India and Indonesia plan to use their local currencies in bilateral trade. India, 🇮🇳the most populated country and Indonesia 🇮🇩 the 4th most populated country in the world also plan to link up their fast payment systems. Indian Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman and her Indonesian counterpart Sri Mulyani Indrawati had reviewed the proposals for the bilateral trade pact which had been completed. The plans are not public.

🔹Indonesia 🇮🇩 has so far linked its fast payments system with Singapore, and is in talks with several others, including Japan and France, for such fast cross border transactions. The Bank of Indonesia launched its domestic card payment system in May. Recently, India and Russia 🇷🇺 agreed to adopt the Russian financial messaging system (SPFS), for cross-border payments.

🔹An Indian 🇮🇳 official said that currency arrangement will be similar to the one with the UAE 🇦🇪, and could see Indian exporters settle their trade in Indonesian rupiah, while those exporting, say, palm oil can earn in Indian rupees. Indonesia is India’s largest trading partner in the ASEAN region.

🔹India in March approved the opening 60 special rupee vostro accounts in 18 countries for settling payments in Indian rupees. Presviously, Bangladesh's 🇧🇩 ministry of commerce have been looking at the possibility of using the Indian rupee instead of the US dollar with India. Both countries reached a deal that will see a small part of their bilateral trade transactions settled in their own currencies.

Video source - Mint

Oil Update:

🔹The EU 🇪🇺 Council has issued a six-month extension for banning the import or transfer of Russian seaborne crude oil and certain petroleum products. Russia’s 🇷🇺 flagship Urals crude benchmark for the past few days have breached the $60 price cap set by the EU and G7 countries, the first time since the mechanism was implemented. Indian refineries are bracing for problems with banks over payments for Russian oil, as the latest crude pricing may create challenges for some Indian buyers who rely on Western services to insure oil imports.

🔹“Indian 🇮🇳 banks have been extra cautious in the last few months for fear of sanctions, requiring the refiners to show that the FOB price of their cargo was below $60 in order to put the payment through”. Urals is trading at the $62 range. German 🇩🇪 Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck warned Indian businessmen saying “you are allowed to buy crude oil and refine it... But making money out of it, bringing more money to Russia using this sanction system to benefit from it is not the idea of it”.

🔹Russia’s crude oil supplies to China rose by 27.3% in January-June 2023 year-on-year to 52.6 mln tons. Overall, China is importing oil at near-record levels while its domestic product has also increased. Yesterday, a Russian Aframax-class tanker 🚢 loaded 730,000 barrels 🛢 of Urals crude and is heading through Arctic waters to China as Moscow seeks to expand the use of the Northern Sea Route in the face of Western sanctions. Shipments of Russian seaborne diesel and gasoil surged by 11% in the first half of July, as production increased after seasonal maintenance at the country’s refineries.

🔹The US 🇺🇸 Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has not been so low since 1983. In the context of the USA's daily demand, the SPR now has a record low 20-days-worth of supply (346 million barrels) 🛢. Oil prices are still a bit above the level that the Biden Admin. said would trigger purchasing action for refilling. Almost 300 million barrels have been sold since Biden took office.

🔹India 🇮🇳 ordered a ban on its largest rice export category (non-basmati white rice) in a move that will roughly halve shipments 🚢 by the world's largest exporter of the grain. The ban came after retail rice prices climbed 3% in a month after late but heavy monsoon rains caused significant damage to crops. The country accounts for more than 40% of world rice exports, shipping rice to more than 140 countries.

🔹Rice paddy fields 🌾 in northern states have been submerged for over a week, destroying newly planted seedlings, and forcing farmers to wait for waters to recede so they can replant. The average 6-month export price of Vietnam's rice (the world's third-largest exporter after India and Thailand) reached $539 USD per ton, up 10% y-o-y and touching the highest level in a decade. While Thailand and Vietnam 🇻🇳 don't have enough inventories to plug the shortfall, African buyers would be most affected by India's decision.

🔹Earlier this year, Thailand 🇹🇭 saw strong demand & a strengthening Thai currency has also helped to push up dollar-denominated prices. In September 2022, India banned exports of broken rice and imposed a 20% duty on exports of various grades of rice. This came after planting areas of the crop declined by 13% due to heatwaves and drought. China 🇨🇳 is virtually self-sufficient in rice. Imports of rice only account for 3% of the nation's total demand.

Arctic LNG Project II update:

🔹Russian President V. Putin attended the launch ceremony for the first finished production line for LNG on a gravity-based structure (GBS) platform, which will be towed along the Northern Sea Route (NSR) to the Utrenneye field on the Gydan Peninsula, in the northern part of Siberia, Russia 🇷🇺. This project is the world's first facility for mass producing natural gas liquefaction trains on GBS, He also visited the site for the construction of the second production line.

🔹The project's gas field holds total reserves of 1,978 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas along with 105Mt of liquids. The project will include the installation of three GBS in the Gulf of Ob 🇷🇺 and associated LNG storage facilities. The GBS will host three natural gas liquefaction trains having a production capacity of 6.6Mt of LNG a year each. The LNG produced will be supplied to Asian 🇨🇳🇰🇷🇯🇵🇻🇳🇮🇳 LNG markets via the NSR by a fleet of ice-class LNG 🚢 carriers.

🔹The launch of the Arctic LNG 2 project in 2023-2026 is expected to boost global liquefied natural gas production by about 5%. Japan 🇯🇵 has decided to exclude Russia's Arctic LNG-2 project from sanctions on the provision of architectural and engineering services. Japanese co.'s, as shareholders of Arctic LNG 2, will be able to take about 2 million tonnes of LNG from the project annually.

🔹Poland 🇵🇱 will not open its borders to Ukrainian grain when the current EU 🇪🇺 restriction expires on Sept. 15, but wants the embargo to be extended at least until the end of the year. Poland’s PM M. Morawiecki said "...either the European Commission will agree to develop regulations extending this ban jointly or we will do it ourselves” but the country was still allowing the transit of Ukrainian grain.

🔹Poland, Bulgaria 🇧🇬, Hungary 🇭🇺, Romania 🇷🇴 and Slovakia 🇸🇰 had signed off on a joint declaration regarding the ban’s extension until at least the end of 2023, and would present it to Brussels. The previous arrangement allowed these countries to ban domestic sales of Ukrainian wheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seeds.

🔹Hungarian Agriculture Minister I. Nagy said the ban was “the only way to protect the interests of European farmers.” The uncontrolled inflow of cheap produce from Ukraine 🇺🇦 due to the “full duty-free and free trade opportunities” granted by the EU to Kiev have resulted in farmers protests in these countries.

🔹Logistical bottlenecks mean large quantities of Ukrainian grains 🌾, have ended up in central European states, hitting prices and sales of local farmers 🚜. The termination of the Black Sea grain deal increases the pressure on the land transport of agricultural products in Europe and can aggravate tension between Ukraine and its neighbours.

🔹Chinese investment is retreating from the West as hostility to Chinese capital has grown. Increasingly, Chinese 🇨🇳 companies are instead spending money on factories in Southeast Asia and mining and energy projects in Asia, the Middle East and South America.

🔹Change in share of Chinese overseas investment since 2016 (percentage points) in the USA is down🔻25% and in Europe down🔻10%. The opposite is true for East Asia which is up🔼almost 20% and similar for the Middle East and North Africa combined.

🔹Overseas investment by China 🇨🇳 fell to around $147 billion in 2022, a decline of 18% compared with a year earlier. It peaked at $196 billion in 2016. In 2016, Chinese companies and state-owned entities made 120 investments worth ($84 billion) in G-7 nations but only 13 last year worth $7.4 billion (18% of China’s total investments overseas).

🔹The yuan was used in 49% of China's cross-border transactions last quarter, topping the dollar for the first time. However, in June the yuan was used for 2.77% of total global trade through the SWIFT 🌐 system (excludes bilateral trade settlement systems). Yuan-denominated international payments last quarter grew 11% on the year.

🔹The IMF may have to accept the Chinese yuan as a currency for countries to settle their obligations with the IMF following Argentina’s 🇦🇷 recent debt repayment in yuan, since the yuan is part of the IMF's SDR basket of currencies.

Video source - Sean Foo

🔹An attempted coup is under way in the fragile state of Niger 🇳🇪, after members of the Presidential Guard detained President Mohamed Bazoum inside his palace in the capital Niamey. The palace and ministries next to it have been blocked off by military vehicles but there was calm elsewhere in Niamey. Rising costs of living and perceptions of gov't incompetence and corruption may have driven the guards’ move.

🔹Colonel-Major Amadou Abdramane 🇳🇪 (video), said the country’s borders were closed and a nationwide curfew was in place. All institutions of the country were also suspended. The US 🇺🇸 has called for an immediate release of Bazoum. There was also a thwarted coup attempt in Niger in March 2021, when a military unit tried to seize the presidential palace days before Bazoum who had just been elected, was due to be sworn in.

🔹Niger is the world’s seventh-largest producer of uranium in 2022. French headquartered Orano controls a majority share of uranium in Niger. Over 50% (in 2019) of the uranium ore extracted from Niger is used for fuelling French nuclear ☢️ power plants as a third of all uranium for France’s reactors comes from Niger. Last month, the EU announced a €66 million package for Niger. France 🇫🇷 has stationed 1,500 troops in the country after being booted out from Mali and Burkina Faso.

🔹In the Sahel region, Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Mali, Niger and Chad have been facing terrorism from Islamic insurgents (Boko Haram, ISIS, Al-Qaeda) for years despite the presence of 'Western security forces'. Recent moves by Mali and Burkina Faso 🇧🇫 to invite Russia's 🇷🇺Wagner Group to help fight has shown success resulting in escaped insurgents fleeing east into Niger. Mali had accused France of arming Islamist fighters & carrying out acts of espionage against the Malian 🇲🇱 gov't.

🔹The 2nd Russia-Africa Summit is taking place in St. Petersburg 🇷🇺 on July 27-28. Of the 49 African nations that sent delegations, 17 are represented by heads of state. The rest of African states' delegations were represented by their vice presidents, heads of gov't, head of parliament. deputy prime ministers, foreign ministers, or ambassadors.

🔹Africa has so far accounted for 3.7% of Russia’s foreign trade 🚢 in 2023, up from 2.3% last year, which represents an increase 📈of about 30%. Russian Minister of Economic Development M. Reshetnikov said growing trade between Russia and Africa will necessitate the use of national currencies, rubles, and the connection of African banks to Russia's SPFS. 🇷🇺 Energy Minister N. Shulginov is negotiating payments for energy supplies in rubles with African countries.

🔹Some of the highlights from the first day include:

🔸Russia and Zimbabwe 🇿🇼 signed an agreement to cooperate in maintaining international information security.
🔸The Russian and Burundian 🇧🇮 gov'ts signed an agreement on cooperation in the use of atomic energy for peaceful purposes.

🔸Russia and Algeria 🇩🇿 have agreed to extend the presence of Russian companies in gas production projects in Algeria.
🔸Press agencies of Algeria 🇩🇿, Namibia 🇳🇦, Zimbabwe 🇿🇼 and the Republic of Congo 🇨🇬 signed cooperation memorandums with Russia's TASS news agency.

🔸Russia will open a new production facility in a special economic zone of Egypt 🇪🇬 as a logistics hub.
🔸 Russia and African countries may develop joint standards for oil 🛢and gas equipment supplied from Russia to the region

🔹African delegations were informed of the details how none of Russia’s conditions under the Black Sea grain 🌾deal were fulfilled.

Day 2 of the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg. Highlights from the final day:

🔹Economy:

🔸 Russia 🇷🇺 will allocate more than $90 million for lowering the debt burden of African countries, as Moscow have thus far written off a total of $23 billion in African debt.
🔸 Russia and African countries are considering the possibility of concluding barter transactions in the energy sector. Meanwhile African central banks and the Bank of Russia focus on integrating payments using Russia's SPFS.

🔹Energy:

🔸 Rosatom and Ethiopia signed a roadmap for cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear 🏭 energy. The BRICS Bank NDB is going to finance certain nuclear projects of Rosatom.
🔸 Russia and Mozambique 🇲🇿 signed an agreement on the construction of the Lurio-2 hydroelectric power station 💡 in that African country.
🔸 🇷🇺 Unigreen Energy intends to put into operation a 115 MW solar energy park 🔋 in South Africa in Q1 2024.

🔹 Trade / Humanitarian:

🔸 Six African countries affected by a food crisis will be sent 25,000-50,000 metric tons of grain 🌾 free of charge.
🔸 Russia and African countries agree with the necessity to implement reforms in the WTO ⚖️.
🔸 Russia and the Economic Community of Central African States signed a memorandum of cooperation in the economic and humanitarian spheres.

🔹 Foreign Policy:

🔸 Eritrean 🇪🇷 President Isaias Afwerki said the conflict in Ukraine is a war that the West has declared on Russia, for hegemony and dominance in the entire world.
🔸 President of the Union of the Comoros 🇰🇲, Azali Assoumani, who also heads the African Union is ready to host the next Russia-Africa summit.
🔸 Russia and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development in Eastern Africa signed a memorandum of cooperation in the area of security.

Video source - RT

🔹Bolivia 🇧🇴 has started using the Chinese 🇨🇳 yuan to pay for imports and exports, becoming the third country in South America (after Argentina 🇦🇷 and Brazil 🇧🇷), to do so. Earlier in 2023 the country faced severe USD shortages to facilitate trade. Between May and July 2023, Bolivia conducted financial operations amounting to 278 million Chinese yuan ($38.7 million), which accounts for 10% of its foreign trade during that period.

🔹Banana, zinc, and wood manufacturing exporters are conducting transactions in yuan, as well as importers of vehicles and capital goods. Chinese experts said under the US Fed’s aggressive interest rate hiking cycle 📈, many developing countries have been facing mounting pressure from capital outflows, currency depreciation and the rising costs of servicing debt. China is Bolivia’s second-largest trading 🚢 partner and its primary source of imports.

🔹Russia's 🇷🇺 ambassador to Bolivia, M. Ledenev, said that the transactions between Bolivia's Banco Union and Russia's Gazprombank facilitate "the work of Russian companies in the market". Bolivia's 🇧🇴 president Luis Arce, earlier this month revealed that the South American region is seriously affected by the restrictions and regulations imposed by the US financial system

🔹Bolivian analysts see a difficult road ahead using the yuan in the short term because world trade, imports and debt payments are made with dollars 💵 and, in addition, Bolivia needs to earn net international reserves in that currency. The Chinese Ambassador to Bolivia has stressed to the Federation of Private Entrepreneurs that setting up a Chinese bank there to directly facilitate yuan denominated trade will take time.

🔹The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been silently pursuing the internationalisation of it's Structured Financial Messaging System (SFMS) which serves as a secure financial messaging platform for domestic banks and institutions within India. This month's UAE 🇦🇪-India 🇮🇳 MoU agreements on trade settlements in rupees / dirhams & linking their payment systems is one more step towards bypassing SWIFT 🌐.

🔹SFMS already supports ISO 20022 standards and offer enhanced data storage, unlike SWIFT which needs an upgrade. In India, the National Electronics Fund Transfer and Real Time Gross Settlement serve as fund transfer platforms, which are first validated through SFMS. With approximately 250 domestic members currently using SFMS through thick client or cloud-based systems, it has a robust foundation for international expansion.

🔹While SWIFT members face considerable annual charges, SFMS offers a more cost-effective alternative. The estimated cost of internationalising SFMS, including membership fees, exchange rate charges, and money laundering screening, amounts to less than half of SWIFT's charges

🔹The actual transfer of funds is executed by banks using various platforms, including VOSTRO and NOSTRO accounts. (NOSTRO - domestic bank’s account maintained by a foreign bank. VOSTRO -the same foreign bank’s account maintained by the domestic bank.) Earlier in March, the RBI gave approval for opening 60 Special Rupee VOSTRO Accounts (SRVA) in 18 countries including Russia 🇷🇺, Germany 🇩🇪and the UK 🇬🇧.

🔹The UAE now offers India discounts on crude 🛢, which will be more than that of the current level of Russian discounts. Crude oil forms the single-largest component of India’s $84-billion bilateral trade with the UAE 🇦🇪. India is working with other countries on bilateral trade using the rupee and the respective local currency. These countries include - Indonesia 🇮🇩, Russia 🇷🇺, Bangladesh 🇧🇩, Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦.

Video - Dr. Ankit Shah

🔹The US 🇺🇸 imposed new travel restrictions on citizens of Hungary today, (restrictions via the U.S. Visa Waiver Program), over concerns that some Hungarian passports holders weren't sufficiently verified. This comes after Hungary’s parliament adjourned Sweden’s accession to NATO because a two-thirds majority was absent from the vote.

🔹Hungary's 🇭🇺 FM P. Szijjarto revealed that EU 🇪🇺 member states are expecting to fund the war in Ukraine for at least another 4 years at a cost of €5 billion per year. Slovakian 🇸🇰 FM M. Wlachovský rebutted him saying he couldn't recall such a discussion.

🔹Hungarian Minister of State T. Menczer responded to Slovakian FM Wlachovský accusing him of either having a bad short-term memory or lying. Menczer noted that EU FM's agreed at their last meeting to propose financing arms shipments to Ukraine 🇺🇦 for the next 4 years at a combined cost of €20 billion.

🔹Last week 🇭🇺 PM V. Orban was criticised for saying “Ukraine’s sovereignty is practically lost. He also said so-called “Western values” mean just “three things: migration, LGBTQ, and war” and that “the EU rejects Christian heritage".

🔹Last month, Hungary, (1 of 5 EU countries) signed a joint declaration to extend a ban on the domestic sale of Ukrainian grain until at least the end of 2023. In May, the country blocked €500 million-euros of EU 🇪🇺 (off-budget) financing for arming Ukraine and did not agree to any sanctions against Russia 🇷🇺in the nuclear sector. PM Orban also spoke against the Kiev regime's abuse of ethnic Hungarians in Transcarpathia.

🔹In April, Ukraine criticized Hungary's behaviour as a NATO 🇫🇲 member. A bipartisan group in 🇺🇸 Congress drafted US sanctions to target leading Hungarian political figures after FM P. Szijjarto rejected a US State Dep't report on Bosnia-Herzegovina and the FM said the UN should lead an investigation into the sabotage of the Nordstream 1&2 pipelines.

🔹Fitch cut the US’s 🇺🇸 sovereign credit grade one level from AAA to AA+ due to rising deficits and gov't debt. Fitch’s action echoed one made in 2011 by S&P Global Ratings, which was never reversed. The federal deficit hit $1.39 trillion 💵 for the first nine months of the current fiscal year, up some 170% y-o-y. The Treasury this week boosted 📈 its borrowing forecast for the current quarter to $1 trillion, well above the $733 billion it had predicted in May.

🔹US Fiscal Balance as % of Gross Value Added:
The US deficit is close to historical wides, bigger than it’s ever been outside of a recession, and almost as wide as it was in the depths of the GFC. It’s the largest in the world in GDP terms, and it is currently heading in the wrong direction. This heaps more pressure on the gov't debt-to-GDP level, already uncomfortably high at 112%.

🔹Tax 💰 revenues have seen almost their largest annual fall ever, in an economy that’s supposed to be growing at 2.4%. The total interest expense as a percentage of tax revenue is expected to rise sharply in the next year or two. Meanwhile, the Biden admin blames the previous Trump admin for the downgrade and Treasury Sec. J. Yellen says it is puzzling in light of the US's economic strength.

🔹Melt-up scenario?
US Treasury yields have risen every day this week. As the US 🇺🇸Treasury ramps up issuance, corporate borrowing and mortgage rates will soar as their respective UST reference rates rise. 10-year is up 23 bps 20-year is up 27 bps 30-year is up 30 bps

Video source - Peter St. Onge

🔹ECOWAS's 7-day ultimatum threatening military action against Niger’s new regime, if they did not reinstate deposed President M. Bazoum has expired. However, ECOWAS now claims to be building up forces before such a military action in Niger 🇳🇪. The delay also comes after member countries Burkina Faso 🇧🇫 and Mali 🇲🇱, warned other ECOWAS members that such actions “would be tantamount to a declaration of war” against them.

🔹ECOWAS actions now reveals the hands of 'foreign powers' using certain member countries within the bloc to maintain control over resources from Niger 🇳🇪. For example, a third of all French 🇫🇷 nuclear power stations is supplied by Niger's uranium sold at a fraction of the market price. Meanwhile, some of Niger’s neighbours sanctioned the country and stopped transmitting electricity to Niger. 70% of Niger’s power comes across the border from Nigeria 🇳🇬.

🔹Ousted Nigerien leader M. Bazoum previously granted amnesty to certain Al Qaeda and ISIS’ terrorists, claiming to make peace during the ongoing 'Islamic' insurgency across the Sahel region. He left average Nigeriens defenseless when he declared that “arming civilians to fight terrorists is a tragic mistake”. Bazoum now claims Niger can turn into a terrorist hotspot if the US doesn’t manage to return him to power.

🔹The plan to use ECOWAS's military intervention to reinstate Western puppet Bazoum is also centered around the 4,128 km Trans-Saharan natural gas pipeline which is a routed from Nigeria through Niger to Europe 🇪🇺 via Algeria 🇩🇿. In 2019, the 🇺🇸 Pentagon spent $100 million to build a new UAV base in Agadez, Niger. (under US laws, their military cannot remain in countries with an anti-constitutional coup). France has been given 30 days to withdraw its military from Niger.

🔹The hypocrisy is now obvious:
-Western media calls for military intervention to stop Russian influence in Niger.
-ECOWAS prioritizes plans to fight fellow African brothers in Niger instead of 'Islamic' terrorists.

Video source- AfricaNews

The de-industrialisation of Germany 🇩🇪- Part 9:

🔹 CEO Matthias Zachert of Lanxess (a leading German specialty chemicals 🧪co. operating in 32 countries) says "de-industrialisation begins" as the co. plans to close two factories in Krefeld-Uerdingen. He cites high energy costs (due to de-coupling from Russia 🇷🇺) and politics as reasons for this.

🔹Industrial production in Germany fell in June on both a yearly (1.7%) and monthly basis (1.5%). Germany's manufacturing 🏭 PMI plummeted to 38.8, twelve consecutive months of contraction.

🔹Electrical 🔌 company "ABL" of Lauf, operating for over 100 years files for bankruptcy.

🔹Fashion house Rübsamen, in existence for more than 120 years is insolvent.

🔹Munich-based BMP Greengas, the leading provider of biogas in Germany has filed for bankruptcy, affecting the country's 'green energy' transition.

🔹 President & CEO of the Voith Group (global technology co.) Toralf Haag, warns that 'danger of de-industrialisation is very great'.

🔹 The German Red Cross has filed for bankruptcy for five hospitals 🏥. A quarter of all hospitals in Saarland and Rhineland-Palatinate are on the brink of becoming insolvent.

🔹Kassel district of the German state of Hesse sees a 34% increase 📈 in bankruptcies, than in the same period (1st 6 months of the year) of 2022.

🔹 In a Federal Association of Medium-Sized Businesses survey, 48% of directors have considered closing down or moving abroad.

Previous parts on the de-industrialisation of Germany 🇩🇪:

💠 Part 8 - June '23

💠 Part 7 - May '23

💠 Part 6 - Mar '23

💠 Part 5 - Feb. '23

💠 Part 4 - Jan. '23

💠 Part 2 and Part 3 - Nov. '22

💠 Part 1 - Oct. '22

Video source- Phoenix

🔹 Kyrgyz 🇰🇬 President Sadyr Japarov addresses US 🇺🇸 accusations that Kyrgyzstan is helping Russia (both EAEU member states) evade sanctions on “drones, aircraft parts and circuitry”. US Senator Bob Menendez, (D) who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee sent President Japarov a letter of accusation. Menendez warned Kyrgyzstan of its "widespread democratic backsliding and human rights violations". The letter details four sanctioned Kyrgyz co.'s and the potential imposition of sanctions on Kyrgyzstan.

🔹 Japarov confirmed that Kyrgyzstan 🇰🇬 is neutral state on the conflict in Ukraine and Kyrgyzstan has banned the exportation of drones, but that Russia doesn’t need his country to get drones from China 🇨🇳 or anywhere else. He considered this a pressure tactic to sway Kyrgyzstan's foreign policy as it has not officially joined the sanctions by the US and its allies against Russia.

🔹 Kyrgyzstan's trade with the West such as Germany 🇩🇪 (pictured) has increased drastically since Western imposition of sanctions on Russia. Logically, Kyrgyz businesses will find avenues to make profits on selling Russia Western goods. In March, the country stepped up export controls after US, EU, and UK officials threatened penalties for “noncompliance.”

🔹 In April 2023, this channel warned that Kyrgyzstan would be threatened next after EAEU member Kazakhstan 🇰🇿 caved to US 🇺🇸 and UK 🇬🇧 threats. Western threats of sanctions forced Kazakhstan's Halyk Finance Institution to restrict its dealings with Russian 🇷🇺 / Belarusian 🇧🇾 nationals and the country had to stop processing MIR payments.

🔹Booming trade flows with Russia’s neighbors is used as a pretext that sanctions are being evaded, so pressure can be justified against countries trading with Russia. However, Western hypocrisy was highlighted last winter when European 🇪🇺 traders were evading sanctions with fake paperwork claiming Russian/Belarussian firewood 🪵 is from Kazakhstan or Kyrgyzstan.

Crude Oil Update:

🔹 The IEA reported Russia's 🇷🇺 revenue from oil exports for July hit the highest level in 2023 (up by $2.5 billion to $15.3 billion) as the price of Russian seaborne crude moved above the G7 imposed $60 price cap on average for the month of July. India’s 🇮🇳 crude oil imports from Russia in June were the cheapest since Feb. 2022 (excludes shipping).

🔹 Russia may have earned an additional $1.2 billion in the three months to July by exploiting a loophole in the G7 oil price cap because they have been selling their crude to India at below the price cap, but overcharged for shipping costs (since shipping costs are not included in this price ceiling). FT analyzed the fees and charges on tankers leaving the Baltic Sea ports in Russia for India. The findings suggest that the overcharging for shipping costs, plus the fees for Russia-linked tankers 🚢, may have boosted 📈 Russia’s oil trade revenues.

🔹China 🇨🇳 imported an average of 10.29 million bpd 🛢 of crude oil in July, a significant decrease from June but still 17% higher year-over-year. Russia has begun rerouting oil previously destined for Europe to China and Asia via the Arctic Ocean’s North Sea Route.

🔹 Oil supply from the OPEC+ group dipped in July by 1.2 million bpd to 50.7 million bpd, the lowest level in nearly two years as Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 began its unilateral production cut of 1 million bpd. Crude oil exports from Iran have gone up to 1.4 million bpd, exceeding its stipulated budgeted amount.

🔹 Russia will cut oil exports by 300,000 bpd in September, on top of the already pledged cut of around 500,000 bpd from March until year-end. The US 🇺🇸 is again delaying a replenishment of the nation’s emergency oil reserve (SPR) because of market conditions.

🔹European natural gas prices soared 📈 15% today following last week's 40% jump due to increasing labor action risks in Australia 🇦🇺. Potential strikes at three top LNG sites operated by Chevron and Woodside Energy Group Ltd. could disrupt global supplies. These three locations account for as much as 10% of global LNG exports.

🔹Dutch front-month TTF futures is trading around €39 a megawatt-hour (lower compared to last year). The good news for Europe is that demand for natural gas remains soft as heating season has not arrived yet and German 🇩🇪 factories that use natural gas continue to close down leading Europe into de-industrialization. Storage facilities across the continent are 89.45% full, the highest level for this time of year in over a decade.

🔹The bad news for Europe is it is now subjected to sourcing the LNG around the world, making it prone to supply snarls. Accustomed to cheap Russian 🇷🇺 pipeline gas, European buyers are finding out that the LNG 🚢 spot market have very different rules, which ultimately resulted in higher—much higher—prices when a new buyer as big as the EU 🇪🇺 appeared on the stage.

🔹This means higher prices for longer. And even higher prices and the constant threat of a price shock in case of supply disruption. Volatility this winter could mean higher bills for households, as well as industrial gas consumers. Price levels and price volatility are two distinct concepts. A constant volatility at higher prices results in a greater dollar value price change at those higher prices.

🔹Meanwhile, U.S. 🇺🇸 natural gas futures rose as hotter-than-normal weather kept cooling demand high, with consumption set to rise further into next week.

Video source- Bloomberg

🔹India's 🇮🇳 top oil refiner (IOC) made the first payment in Indian rupees (not USD) for the purchase of a million barrels of oil from the UAE's 🇦🇪 Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC). Both countries benefited from reduced dependence on a third-party currency, potentially lowering exchange rate risks and transaction costs.

🔹The UAE now offers India discounts on crude 🛢oil which forms the single-largest component of India’s $84-billion bilateral trade with the UAE. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been silently pursuing the internationalisation of it's Structured Financial Messaging System (SFMS) with the UAE through last month's agreements on trade settlements in rupees / dirhams & linking their payment systems as one more step towards bypassing SWIFT 🌐.

🔹The agreement focuses on creating a Local Currency Settlement System, promoting bilateral transactions using the Rupee-Dirham, encompassing all current account transactions and permitted capital account transactions.

🔹Previously, Russia's 🇷🇺largest oil producer Rosneft and the IOC agreed to use the Asia-focused Dubai 🇦🇪 oil price benchmark. India have begun paying for this oil in UAE dirhams instead of USD. India is prepared to trade in rupees with nations facing a shortage of dollars 💵 so as to "disaster-proof" them and effectively boost its exports.

🔹Four days ago two Indian Naval 🚢 ships, participated in a bilateral Naval Maritime Partnership Exercise with the UAE Navy increasing regional security for maritime trade. Yesterday Dubai's iconic Burj Khalifa was illuminated in the colours of India's flag 🇮🇳 to celebrate India's 77th Independence Day. It also displayed "Happy Independence Day to Mother India" and "Long Live India UAE Friendship".

Video source - Mint

How far will the US and EU go, to fully control Moldovan internal affairs?

🔹 By sanctioning the top Moldovan 🇲🇩 opposition party (Shor Party) leader Ilan Shor, the EU 🇪🇺 is working hand-in-hand with the country’s unpopular gov't to stifle dissent. Without any evidence Shor is accused of working with the Kremlin 🇷🇺 after organizing protests against the high cost of living crisis. The Moldovan judiciary is also being weaponised in attempts to ban the opposition party.

🔹Shor as well as his deputy, Marina Tauber, launched applications to the EU General Court to have the restrictions dismissed. The gov't is also stifling any dissent through the media. The licenses of six TV channels deemed 'pro-Russian' have been suspended since December 2022.

🔹Moldova 🇲🇩 has received €250 million in grants and loans from the EU 🇪🇺 since it was granted candidate status last summer, and $320 million from Washington 🇺🇸. This week Moldova expelled 45 Russian diplomats and other embassy staff claiming antennas on the embassy roof is for spying.

🔹In June, thousands gathered in Chisinau to rally for the future continued celebration of Victory Day as the pro-EU gov't attempts to cancel the holiday. The Grayzone recently revealed the level of corruption in the gov't as Western businesses pay for influence though those close to the Moldovan president. Moldovan politician and lawyer Stanislav Pavlovschi revealed that the US 🇺🇸 ambassador 'governs' Moldova.

🔹In May, Moldovan police raided the central election commission of Gagauzia, alleging irregularities after a politician championing better relations with Russia 🇷🇺 so as to ease the energy crisis, won the local gubernatorial vote. Moldovans 🇲🇩 have been holding regular protests over their dissatisfaction of inflation, cutting off Russian supplied energy and the lack of a neutral status.

Video of Former Moldovan President Igor Dodon - Source (IntelRepublic)