🔹Oil inventories in developed economies are at their lowest level since 2004. OPEC has cut its oil 🛢 demand growth forecast, 5th time since April.

🔹OPEC cited significant economic uncertainty. OPEC now sees global oil demand growth at 2.5 million bpd in 2022 after slashing the Q4 demand projections by nearly 400,000 bpd. 2022 global oil demand is projected to avg. 99.6 million bpd.

🔹Hedge funds and other investors have increased bullish bets, 📈 positioning themselves for a potential large market disruption. On Dec. 5th, the EU 🇪🇺 embargo on Russian 🇷🇺 sea borne oil 🚢 & G7 oil price cap comes into force.

Last reported on this channel:

💠 Historical charts showing US SPR depletion 📉 & declining refinery capacity.

💠 American oil refiners 🏭 are enjoying the best-ever diesel margins/profits.

💠 Saudi Arabia's 🇸🇦 energy minister warns nations' that use emergency oil reserves to manipulate prices.

💠 OPEC+ defends their role in 🛢 oil market stability at JMMC of the OPEC+ group HQ 🇦🇹.

🔹 UK 🇬🇧 consumer prices saw a surge of 11.1% in October, smashing a 41-year high 📈 as the nation continued to struggle with soaring food, transport and energy costs. The annual increase in the consumer price index (CPI) is attributed to surging prices for electricity, gas and other fuels.

🔹The number of working days lost to strikes in the UK has risen to the highest in more than a decade as pay growth in the public sector falls behind the private sector at the sharpest rate on record.

🔹Talks between Britain's Royal Mail 📮& the Communication Workers Union (CWU) aimed at averting strike action have been extended.

🔹The Bank of England says Brexit is hurting the UK economy. The UK gov't says the Russia 🇷🇺 & Covid 🦠are to blame. Paris stock market value has surpassed that of London.

🔹UK Chancellor plans to hike taxes 📈 on energy firm profits to 35% from 25%. This would send the oil 🛢 & gas sector’s effective tax rate on UK profits rise to 75%. The extra windfall tax could be extended to 2028.

🔹Russia 🇷🇺 is “allowing a technical prolongation” of the Black Sea grain initiative, which is set to expire later this week.

🔹The terms of the grain 🌾 deal agree to facilitate exports of crucial harvest from the region for another 120 days. Turkish 🇹🇷President Erdogan confirmed the extension.

🔹Russia expects the UN 🇺🇳 to deliver on its promise to lift restrictions on Russian exports of food and fertilizers. Russia 🇷🇺 noted: Any use of the Black Sea for provocative military ops. will be stopped.

Last reported on this channel:

💠 Russia 🇷🇺 resumes participation to the Black Sea grain deal after Türkiye's 🇹🇷 guarantees.

💠 Russia suspends grain deal after ships 🚢 in the Black Sea were attacked by Ukraine.

💠 Grain 🌾 deal hypocrisy by western countries, exposed.

💠 Chairman of the African Union visits Russia & asked President Putin for help with solution to food 🌾 crisis in Africa.

💠 Grain deal signed with safe routes 🚢 made in Black Sea. Previous deal was botched by Ukraine.

🔹Russia 🇷🇺 & China 🇨🇳 are shifting to payments in national currencies - in rubles and in yuan - for supplied energy resources, to mutual settlements performed in particular for supplies of equipment from China.

🔹Payments for supplies of oil and petroleum products are also being proactively shifted to national currencies. Trade turnover between Russia and China in the energy sector increased by 64% in monetary terms and by 10% in physical terms.

Video courtesy Sean Foo.

Last reported on this channel:

💠 Russian 🇷🇺bank, VTB launches money transfers to China in yuan, bypassing SWIFT.

💠 Gazprom move payments for gas exports to China 🇨🇳 away from USD/Euros.

💠 "Interested SCO member states" 🇷🇺🇨🇳🇮🇷🇮🇳🇵🇰🇰🇬🇰🇿🇹🇯🇺🇿 agreed a "roadmap for the gradual increase in the share of national currencies in mutual settlements".

💠 Ruble-yuan 📈 trade up 1067% in Q2 of 2022.

💠 Russia 🇷🇺 added grain, sunflower oil and extracted meal to the list of exports that must be paid for in rubles.

🔹Iran 🇮🇷 has lost $450 billion in oil revenues in a decade due to US sanctions, causing a serious economic crisis. In absence of sanctions, Iran was exporting anywhere between 2.2-2.5 million bpd. But when sanctions were imposed exports were as little as 200,000 bpd.

🔹About half of Iran's state budget depends on oil 🛢revenues, while at a $30 billion annual shortfall, the annual inflation rate is 40% in the past 2 years.

🔹Iran decided to allow individuals & co.s to sell crude so as to bypass US 🇺🇸 sanctions. Iran's FM says EU🇪🇺 sanctions are unconstructive act out of miscalculation.

Last reported on this channel:

💠 Iran & Armenia 🇦🇲 signed a MOU on energy / economic cooperation.

💠 Russia & Iran working out mechanisms to implement oil 🛢 & gas swap deals. Iran's First VP calls Caspian littoral states to create an oil & gas cooperation committee.

💠 Iran & Russia 🇷🇺 unifying banking systems for trade in ruble/rial currency pair.

💠 Iran🇮🇷 signs MOU's at SCO meeting in Samarkand.

🔹The 🇫🇷 French electricity grid is at higher risk of strained power supplies in Jan. 2023 due to lower nuclear power generation. Delays in routine maintenance at 🏭 stations will lead to a slightly lower nuclear availability this winter.

🔹Credit Agricole had signed a 1 billion euro loan 💶 to finance EDF's maintenance of nuclear plants.

🔹France 🇫🇷 won’t dismantle EDF after buyout- Finance Ministry.

🔹France will spend 8.4 billion euros to help co.s pay their energy bills, cutting a special tax on electricity💡to the minimum allowed under EU 🇪🇺 rules.

Last reported on this channel:

💠French utility EDF said that it had lowered its nuclear output target for 2022 due to the impact of strikes on its reactor maintenance schedule.

💠France's EDF is rushing to get nuclear power stations 🏭 online. 20 of 56 offline due to strikes & corrosion issues. (Last reported 6 of 12 with corrosion issues being repaired).

💠The French 🇫🇷 gov't to fully nationalize the EDF. which runs a 29 billion Euro loss.

🔹Police in Burkina Faso 🇧🇫 fired tear gas to disperse angry protesters who attempted to storm the French embassy in the capital Ouagadougou. The protesters, are demanding the expulsion of the French 🇫🇷 ambassador. French President Macron blames Russia for feeding anti-French propaganda in Africa.

🔹Burkina Faso's 🇧🇫 interim President last month, called for a stop to the attacks on the French Embassy following Burkina Faso's 2nd coup this year. Citizens express hope in the new gov't to fight terrorism, as 🇷🇺 Russia's Wagner Group may be invited to help fight jihadists.

🔹The country faces an Islamic insurgency, a crisis that has forced 2 million people from their homes in recent years. Jihadists have dynamited 🧨 bridges & mounted deadly attacks against supply convoys, blockading towns to starve out the population there.

🔹Recently, the US 🇺🇸 plans to terminate Burkina Faso's designation as a beneficiary under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) citing a lack of political pluralism.

🔹 Pakistan 🇵🇰 has asked Russia to introduce a currency swap arrangement to strengthen economic ties. Now the ball is in Russia’s 🇷🇺 court. It can be any mechanism – trading in rubles or barter trade.

🔹Russia to enter the $62 billion China 🇨🇳–Pakistan 🇵🇰 Economic Corridor (CPEC). Russia’s vision for its Greater Eurasian Partnership (GEP) passes through the CPEC, as part of China’s BRI.

🔹Pakistan participated in the 4th meeting of the ”Moscow Format Consultations on Afghanistan” 🇦🇫 with an emphasis on regional security & military-political stability.

Last reported on this channel:

💠 Pakistan's 🇵🇰 former PM, Imran Khan, shot & wounded in an assassination attempt.

💠 Iran 🇮🇷 proposed a new currency for trade with SCO members including Pakistan.

💠 Pakistan's gas supplies will be very limited this winter as Europe outbids Asian customers for LNG 🚢.

💠 Pakistan approved a plan to buy 300,000 metric tonnes of wheat 🌾 from Russia.

Video courtesy The Print.

🔹European traders are rushing to fill tanks in the region with Russian diesel before an EU 🇪🇺ban begins in Feb., as alternative sources remain limited.

🔹The EU will ban Russian oil 🛢 product imports, (includes diesel), by Feb. 5, following a ban on Russian crude taking effect in Dec. Russian diesel loadings destined for the Amsterdam 🇳🇱 (ARA) storage region rose to 215,000 bpd from Nov. 1 to Nov. 12, up by 126% from Oct.

🔹“The EU will have to secure diesel coming from the US, the Middle East & 🇮🇳 India. Diesel prices & cracks (differential to crude oil price) soared to record levels in Oct. & are now 70% and 425% above year-ago levels, respectively.

Last reported on this channel:

💠 Ireland 🇮🇪 - Diesel at its second-highest price on record.

💠 The front-month East-West swap, a measure of the premium for diesel in Europe over Asia, widened to $60.50 a ton. It averaged $7.40 a ton in 2021.

💠 Diesel ⛽️ shortages in France 🇫🇷 due to worker strikes at oil refineries.

Video courtesy The Print.

🔹China 🇨🇳 signed a landmark $60 billion agreement for purchases of LNG from Qatar 🇶🇦. Qatar Energy will send Sinopec 4 million tons of LNG a year starting in 2026. The deal will last for 27 years, making it China’s longest LNG supply agreement to date.

🔹The global LNG 🚢 market is all but maxed out in terms of supply and there is little new production coming online before 2026. EU talks with Qatar have stalled amid reluctance from the likes of Germany to commit to long-term contracts.

🔹The gas for Sinopec will come from the North Field East expansion, which will cost Qatar 🇶🇦 and investors including Shell Plc and Exxon Mobil Corp. almost $30 billion. Is China planning to rely less on US exported LNG? (photo)

🔹In Sep., Germany's 🇩🇪 Chancellor visited Qatar & failed to come to any long term LNG contractual agreement.

Last reported on this channel:

💠 Qatar's Energy Minister said that the EU's 🇪🇺 price caps on Russian 🇷🇺 energy are hypocritical. He said the free market is the best solution.

🔹Bulgaria 🇧🇬 will allow a Black Sea refinery owned by a Russia's Lukoil to keep operating & exporting oil products to the EU until the end of 2024 despite warnings by Brussels that it is against the bloc’s sanctions.

🔹The deal between Bulgaria 🇧🇬 & Lukoil will give an additional 350 million-euro (dollar) boost to Bulgaria's budget.

🔹From Jan. 1, 2023, Lukoil will transfer all production, revenues & taxes to be paid in Bulgaria, & not, as it was before, in the Netherlands 🇳🇱 or Switzerland🇨🇭. The refinery cannot work if exports are curtailed.

🔹Bulgaria’s sole refinery is the main source of gasoline & diesel ⛽️fuel sold on the Bulgarian market.

Last reported on this channel:

💠 Video courtesy the WSJ: How the sanction avoidance process works for Russia's 🇷🇺 Lukoil in Italy 🇮🇹.

💠 Hungary 🇭🇺 & Bulgaria 🇧🇬 were the most vocal in opposing sanctions on Russian uranium.

💠 The EU's highest monthly increase in industrial producer prices for September was recorded in Bulgaria 🇧🇬 (+9.2%).

🔹Part 3 to previous posts covering the attack on the Russian Orthodox Church 🙏.

🔹 The Kiev Pechersk Lavra, the largest Orthodox Christian monastery in Ukraine, was raided on the 22nd Nov. by the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 security agency, SBU.

🔹Russian Orthodox Archpriest Mikhail Vasiliev was recently killed by shrapnel, in Kherson.

🔹Recently, vandals smeared paint over the Russian 🇷🇺 Orthodox Church of the Virgin Mary in Geneva 🇨🇭.

The west politically created the Orthodox Church of Ukraine 🇺🇦 (OCU) to undermine the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOC) (Russian connected).

💠 Link to 👉 Part 1: The West’s silence about multiple attacks against Russian Orthodox Churches around the world.

💠 Link to 👉 Part 2: Ukrainian militants shell St. Nicholas Monastery, shot 3 monks in the Svyatogorsk Monastery, while holding 700 civilians & 800 monks hostage & seizes Popelnya Orthodox Church.

Video courtesy IntelRepublic: Clip outside church compound at today's raid & recent speech by Patriarch Kirill of Moscow.

🔹The Republic of Ireland 🇮🇪 - There have been two protests in Dublin’s East Wall in recent days over plans to accommodate refugees in a former ESB office building. Local politicians have said there was a lack of consultation with the community in advance of asylum seekers from Afghanistan 🇦🇫, Nigeria 🇳🇬 & Somalia 🇸🇴 being moved there.

🔹The number of Ukrainian's 🇺🇦 seeking accommodation in Ireland will exceed 70,000 by the end of the year. 🇮🇪 Taoiseach Martin asks residents to warmly welcome Ukrainians & blames 🇷🇺 President Putin for weaponizing migration.

🔹Residents of East Wall have concerns of potential threats to the safety of local women & children, since so far the centre has been filled with 80 single men of Middle Eastern, African & Albanian origin.

🔹A local media smear campaign has begun, labelling the Irish 🇮🇪 protestors as 'fringe' & 'far-right' so as to deflect concerns of citizens living there.

Clip courtesy GB News.

🔹US 🇺🇸 cold storage of orange juice plunged to the lowest level in half a century after extreme weather in Florida & citrus greening damaged production. Orange juice 🍊futures hit record highs of more than $2 per pound 📈.

🔹Brazilian 🇧🇷 exports of orange juice to the US in the first four months of the season surged 58% from a year ago. US stockpiles of cold-stored orange juice plunged by 43% in September from a year earlier -- the lowest level since 1977. A combination of diseases across Florida's citrus groves and Hurricane Ian destroyed crops.

🔹Back in January '22, it was reported on this channel, that Florida, has been hit very hard by a bacterial infection spread through an invasive insect, the Asian citrus psyllid, first detected in 2005. Last week, the USDA awarded a $1million grant to support the development of a plant antibiotic delivery system.

🔹This is the 3rd year of demand exceeding supply, with prices in the US 🇺🇸 & Europe 🇪🇺 set to become 20% to 30% more expensive by 2023.

🔹UK 🇬🇧- Supermarket customers are facing limits on how many eggs they can buy amid a supply crisis that is expected to last beyond Christmas. Marks & Spencer & Morrisons, Tesco, Asda, Aldi & Lidl are rationing sales of boxes of 🥚eggs.

🔹Bird flu 🐓 in the UK has resulted in around 750,000 laying hens being culled since 1 October. Some supermarkets are also importing eggs to fill gaps in supply. If one hen in a flock is infected, the entire flock needs be culled, which leads to substantially fewer hens laying eggs.

Earlier bird flu posts on this channel:

💠 Spain 🇪🇸 - Two poultry farm workers tested positive for bird flu, the 1st known human infections in Spain & the 2nd in Europe since 2003.

💠 Millions of chickens euthanized to prevent spread of bird flu at US & UK farms.

💠 Death of seabirds in Canada 🇨🇦 linked to bird flu.

💠 US egg 🥚prices increase due to culling of hens across US.

💠 Quebec, Canada duck-farming 🦤 operation face financial ruin due to bird flu.

Video courtesy GB News.

🔹Czechia (Czech Republic 🇨🇿) - Despite being able to produce much of its own food, the country is still seeing a dramatic increase in food prices. 📈 Rising energy prices is only part of the problem because a substantial amount of domestically produced food is exported to the EU & abroad.

🔹For 2020, the Czechia 🇨🇿was fully self-sufficient in 3 food groups: beef, milk and milk products, & sugar. In October, domestic food prices rose by 26.7%. In 2021, Czechs paid less than 90% of the European average. In 2022 local food prices were up to 96% of the EU average.

🔹Czechia's EU 🇪🇺 centric PM told farmers self-sufficiency is unrealistic.

Last reported on this channel:

💠 Tens of thousands of Czechs protested in Prague, (Oct 28th), to demand a neutral foreign policy & resume purchases of Russian 🇷🇺 natural gas.

💠 Czech Republic 🇨🇿 protests grow, over the ongoing energy 🔌 crisis.

💠 Over 70,000 Czech 🇨🇿 protestors, demand the gov't take a neutral stand on Russia-Ukraine.

🔹Netherlands 🇳🇱: BP said the planned restart of its oil refinery 🏭 in Rotterdam is on hold after unions refuse to return the refinery online over a pay dispute.

🔹The refinery processes 400,000 barrels of oil 🛢annually (3% of northern Europe’s refining capacity) & is a top supplier of diesel to Northern Europe. Wood Mackenzie Ltd: "stockpiles of fuel in region may slide to record lows".

🔹Unions are seeking a 9.5% pay increase + a one-time bonus, while BP has offered a 5% increase + a one-time bonus. Dutch inflation is around 15% 📈.

Last reported on this channel:

💠 European traders are rushing to fill storage tanks with Russian diesel before an EU 🇪🇺ban begins in Feb. 2023.

💠 Ireland 🇮🇪 - Diesel at its second-highest price on record.

💠 The front-month East-West swap, a measure of the premium for diesel in Europe over Asia, widened to $60.50 a ton. It averaged $7.40 a ton in 2021.

💠 Diesel ⛽️ shortages in France 🇫🇷 due to worker strikes at oil refineries.

Video courtesy The Print.

🔹Russia's 🇷🇺 FSB thwarted an attempt of sabotage & terrorist attack on the South Stream gas pipeline by Ukrainian special services. Four magnetic mines, four kilograms of 'plastic', time-explosives & communications equipment were seized.

🔹The bombing 💣 was planned in Russia's Volgograd region. The equipment also contained correspondence with a curator from Ukraine's 🇺🇦 special services, with instructions for assembling & installing an explosive device.

🔹The South Stream project was originally built for 63 bcm of gas to the Black Sea. It was cancelled by US/EU sanctions & bullying of Bulgaria 🇧🇬 resulting in the TurkStream project.

Last reported on this channel:

💠 Saboteurs attempt to blow up 🧨 Turkstream Pipeline infrastructure.

💠 President Putin proposed building a major gas hub in Türkiye 🇹🇷.

💠 Last month: Dutch 🇳🇱 authorities, enforcing EU sanctions, withdrew the export license of South Stream Transport which operates the TurkStream. They re-applied for a new license.

🔹EU 🇪🇺 nations have failed to agree on imposing a price ceiling on natural gas. Hungary 🇭🇺 is planning to seek exemptions from EU price caps on Russian 🇷🇺 gas.

🔹The European Commission wants gas prices set at 275 euros- MW/hr, to be implemented via the TTF exchange. When gas is €58 higher than the LNG 🚢 reference price for 10 consecutive trading days within the 2 weeks then the cap is triggered.

🔹Poland 🇵🇱, Spain 🇪🇸 & Greece 🇬🇷 are eager to implement the cap, but says this proposal is not realistic as it is so high that it is unlikely to ever be triggered.

Last reported on this channel.

💠 Some EU 🇪🇺 leaders are insisting that the EU impose a price cap on all natural gas imports.

💠 Norway's 🇳🇴 Equinor CEO: "Any price cap is not really solving the fundamental problems".

💠 EU 🇪🇺 plans to use joint purchasing power as leverage in gas negotiations.

💠 Hungary 🇭🇺 would not support a price cap on Russian gas.

Video: Qatar's Energy Minister says EU's price caps are hypocritical.

🔹EU🇪🇺 unable to agree a price cap on Russian oil. Poland 🇲🇨 & Estonia 🇪🇪 rejected the proposed $65 per barrel as being too soft on Moscow. Greece 🇬🇷, a big player in the oil shipping industry, doesn’t want to go below $70.

🔹🇺🇸 President Biden claims the G7 nations oil price cap is "in play". Japan 🇯🇵 confirms oil from Russia's Sakhalin 2 excluded from price cap.

🔹 Russian 🇷🇺 Deputy PM Novak warns “the surge in prices would be unpredictable,” & “it would be $300 per barrel if not more.”. Moscow will execute an oil embargo on countries supporting the G7 oil price cap.

🔹Price cap 'ridiculous in reality' due to enforcement issues & oil 🛢market players incentive to cheat.

Last reported on this channel:

💠 India 🇮🇳 have no interest in joining the US/EU oil price cap.

💠 Russia won’t sell oil 🛢 to any nation that participates in the price-cap plan

💠 Saudi Arabia's 🇸🇦 energy minister warns nations who use emergency oil reserves to manipulate prices

Video: India's Petroleum Minister

🔹Ghana 🇬🇭 ordered large gold-mining co.'s to sell 20% of the metal they refine to the nation’s central bank. Ghana is working on a new policy for gold to be used to buy oil products rather than USD.

🔹Central banks bought 399 tonnes of gold in Q3. More than quadrupling on the year. Buyers include China 🇨🇳, Turkey 🇹🇷, Uzbekistan 🇺🇿 & India 🇮🇳. The year-to-date flurry of gold buying already well surpasses any 12-month period since 1967.

🔹Burglars in Bavaria 🇩🇪 have stolen 'several million euros' worth of gold from a Celtic Roman Museum.

Recent developments:

💠China's 🇨🇳 net gold imports via Hong Kong 🇭🇰 jumped nearly 40% to an over 4-year high in August. London 🇬🇧 gold dealer BullionVault, runs out of gold bullion.

💠Russia 🇷🇺 have taken steps to “mobilise” the non-reserve gold

💠Moscow's new gold standard & plans for a new trade settlement currency to replace the dollar 💵 require enhanced gold reserves so as to support a new gold standard for cross-border trade

Video: Sean Foo