The Macro Butler
444 subscribers
1.62K photos
133 videos
1.16K links
The Macro Butler aims to deliver concise yet comprehensive macroeconomic insights that impact global and regional markets. We analyze key indicators, trends to provide actionable & timely investment recommendations to all kind of investors.
Download Telegram
In a development that will have Warren Buffett quietly muttering into his cherry Coke, the post-Oracle-of-Omaha era at Berkshire has officially arrived: new CEO Greg Abel spent a net $20 billion on equities in Q2, including — brace yourself — a $10 billion cheque to Alphabet to fund its AI ambitions, marking the exact moment Berkshire, the conglomerate that spent decades religiously avoiding tech and lecturing everyone about circle-of-competence, finally bought the AI hype right as the Magnificent 7 became the year's biggest laggard. Abel also handed $6.8 billion to homebuilder Taylor Morrison, added to Delta, Lennar, and — in a truly poetic touch — Macy's and the New York Times, while trimming Bank of America, Kroger, and Capital One, and exiting Constellation Brands entirely. The genuinely instructive detail, however, is buried beneath the shopping spree: even after spending $20 billion, Berkshire still sits on $365.5 billion in cash — down from a record $397 billion but still a mountain of dry powder.
💯1
🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 The world can pump crude almost anywhere — but only a few fiendishly complex refineries turn it into what moves civilization. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-alchemy-of-crude
☀️ SUMMER SPECIAL — 15% OFF

Ready to understand your money and the markets better?

This summer, take your financial knowledge to the next level with The Macro Butler Financial Academy.

Learn the principles behind:
📈 Investing & Portfolio Building
🌍 Economics & Market Cycles
💡 Smarter Financial Decision-Making

Whether you’re starting your investment journey or looking to sharpen your financial knowledge, The Macro Butler gives you the framework to think differently about money.

🎓 Get 15% OFF when you subscribe.

Limited Time Offer — Available until September 15, 2026.

👉 Start Learning Now
https://themacrobutler.com/financial-academy/
Germany, the nation that spent decades building one of the most successful industrial economies on earth and then set about dismantling it with the enthusiasm of a man sawing off the branch he's sitting on, has discovered that China no longer needs what it's selling. Germany's trade deficit with China exploded to roughly €55 billion in H1 2026 from €40 billion a year earlier, as German exports to China collapsed more than 12% while imports surged 8.9% — and in a detail that should be printed and framed in the Chancellery, China has plummeted from Germany's second-largest export market in 2021 to ninth place, now buying fewer German goods than Austria. The cause, which German politicians will attribute to Donald Copperfield, Tsar Vladimir, COVID, or whatever villain is fashionable this week rather than look in the mirror, is elegantly self-inflicted: Germany abandoned nuclear power, severed itself from cheap Russian energy, embraced an EU regulatory regime.
Germany didn't lose China as a customer — it trained its replacement, handed over the blueprints, taxed its own energy into oblivion, and then act surprised that Austria now buys more Mercedes than Beijing.
The Ministry of Sustainable Resource Stewardship has unveiled its most ambitious inventory project yet: the tokenization of water itself, whereby a share of a river, an aquifer, or a "saved" volume of recycled H₂O is converted into a digital certificate that lives on a blockchain and can be bought, sold, and traded like a stock — the right to use, claim, or offset the most fundamental substance of life reborn as a financial product for institutions to own in fractions. Goldman Sachs has already published "Securing and Financing the Future of Water," the UN has helpfully declared the planet to be in an era of "Global Water Bankruptcy" requiring centralized management to replace the obsolete system of local rights, Dubai's DMCC has signed to launch the world's first freshwater-backed token, and helicopters towing electromagnetic loops now map the groundwater beneath American farms like an MRI of the earth.

https://www.sgtreport.com/2026/08/tokenization-of-h%E2%82%82o-whats-next-o%E2%82%82/
Oracle already processes data from over 100 million meters, its founder having cheerfully observed that constant recording keeps citizens "on their best behavior" — which is not a warning but a sales pitch. Once you own the real-time ledger of every drop entering every home, you no longer need force; you need only a dashboard.

https://www.oracle.com/utilities/customer-platform/
When the same institutions that declare water "bankrupt" are the ones building the machinery to meter, tokenize, and trade it, scarcity has stopped being a crisis to solve and become a business model to enforce — one permission slip at a time.
Germany, the nation that heroically shut down its nuclear plants, severed itself from cheap Russian pipeline gas, and lectured the world about energy transition, has now discovered — with the seasonal predictability of a calendar — that winter is coming and its cupboards are alarmingly bare. German natural gas storage sits at just 48% full versus 65% a year ago and 75% during the 2022 crisis — the lowest level for this time of year in seventeen years. Projections are that Germany will scrape into November at 65%, comfortably below its own 80% target and the EU's 90% mandate, because nothing says "energy security" like missing your storage goals by a quarter before the first frost.
1
The cascade of self-inflicted misery is almost artistic: attempting to hit the targets will spike prices, replenishing via Trading Hub Europe will pressure the fiscal position, German demand will crowd out other European buyers, and Germany's limited regasification capacity means even available LNG can't necessarily be stored — so a shortage may arrive regardless. And should anyone think it couldn't get more comedic, the Rhine is near-dry at 10cm of navigable depth versus 400cm in February, leaving cargo barges limping along at 10-20% capacity.
When your gas storage hits a 17-year low, your storage targets are already unreachable, and your main river is too shallow to float a barge, "energy transition" wasn't a policy — it was a countdown to a cold, expensive winter.
The Ministry of Cartographic Truth has resolved a persistent geographic ambiguity: The Warmonger In Chief posted a map on Truth Social labelling the Strait of Hormuz "New U.S. Territory," a body of water located entirely within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, thousands of miles from the United States, and — in a detail the map omits — one that Iran continues to blockade with mines and drones, insisting "the Strait of Hormuz has been Iranian, is Iranian, and will remain Iranian." In the same breath, the Donald Copperfield declared the waterway "open and operating" with "all water mines removed or detonated," while announcing "no talks or conversations going on" and the naval blockade "in full force" — a set of claims so mutually contradictory they achieve a kind of Orwellian perfection: the strait is simultaneously American and Iranian, open and blockaded, at peace and under siege.
When you cannot open a strait, you declare you own it — the map becomes the territory, the announcement becomes the victory, and the war ends not with a treaty but with a redrawn border nobody else recognises.
Media is too big
VIEW IN TELEGRAM
🚨 YOUR INVESTMENT STRATEGY IS A MARATHON—NOT A SPRINT. 🏃‍♂️💰

42 years sounds like a lifetime…
But in investing, time is your biggest competitive advantage.
Forget trying to predict every market move. 📈📉

Build wealth through discipline, compounding, and staying invested through the inevitable cycles.

The question isn't: “What happens next?”
It’s: “Will you still be invested 42 years from now?” 👀

🎯 Watch the full video—and learn how to rethink your investment horizon with The Macro Butler Financial Academy.

https://themacrobutler.com/financial-academy/
In a development that will surprise absolutely nobody except the people whose job it was to see it coming, ‘Scrooge’ Bessent — with 30-year yields at a 25-year high and threatening to blow out further — panicked and announced the Treasury will "at least double" the size of its long-end buyback operations from $2 billion to $4 billion per operation, thereby resolving the market's favourite years-long debate about whether these buybacks were "soft QE" by confirming they were, in fact, QE all along, just wearing a false moustache and calling itself "liquidity support." The official justification — that the Treasury simply wishes to provide "greater liquidity support in longer-dated sectors where there is consistent strong sponsorship" — is a masterpiece of bureaucratic nonsense, since a sector with "strong sponsorship" is by definition one that doesn't need liquidity support.

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0607
😁1
When the Treasury doubles its "not-QE" buybacks the same week debt hits $40 trillion, gold doesn't need a press release to translate it — QE by any other name still spends the same, and the Eternal Bullion just read the memo first.
🔥1
In a display of fiscal choreography worthy of its own Netflix special, Bessent's morning panic — doubling long-end buybacks mere hours before the 20-year auction — accomplished precisely one thing: it ensured the auction priced at the second highest yield in the tenor's history rather than the first, a distinction roughly as reassuring as being told your parachute mostly opened. The auction priced at 5.204%, up from July's 5.163%, tailing the When Issued by 0.5bps.
👍1
The bid-to-cover of 2.53 — the lowest since February and one of the worst on record — meaning that even after the Treasury emergency-intervened to suppress yields by 8bps, demand was still lousy enough to require the dealers to sweep up 12.5% of what nobody wanted. The internals writhed accordingly: foreign buyers collapsed to 62.9% while Directs surged to 24.6%, a suspicious see-saw pattern