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https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-week-that-it-wasas-of-september-d04
https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-week-that-it-wasas-of-september-d04
Substack
The Week That It Was…As of September 18, 2026 - Podcast
Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler The Week That It Was newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble; Spotify & TikTok.
The Ministry of Decisive Action has passed its most fearsome economic weapon yet: the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act, a 61-page arsenal authorising 500% duties on Russian goods, 100% secondary tariffs on anyone buying Russian oil, mandatory blocking of the Central Bank and every major Russian lender, and secondary sanctions on any foreign bank that dares transact with them — a document so uncompromising it could bring Moscow to its knees, were it ever actually used. The genius lies in the fine print the Ministry hopes you'll skip: Section 115 lets the President waive any sanction, any tariff, any provision he likes by simply certifying it serves "the national interest"; Section 103(c) exempts foreign banks whenever Treasury finds sanctions "not consistent with economic or foreign policy interests"; and Section 113(d) thoughtfully spares Hungary and Slovakia via a 15% gas loophole.
https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2101332077257826508
https://x.com/WhiteHouse/status/2101332077257826508
So, the most aggressive Russia-sanctions framework ever drafted arrives pre-equipped with an off-switch for every clause, passed 86-11 and named after the man who spent years failing to pass it while alive — a monument, fittingly, to a foreign policy that prefers the appearance of force to its exercise.
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CXMT, China's dominant DRAM producer, is opening a NAND flash R&D line at its new Beijing plant and already courting AI system and supercomputer makers. Recall the original purpose of export controls: to keep China out of advanced memory. Since YMTC's 2022 Entity List placement, YMTC has passed SanDisk, now ties Kioxia for fourth, and is expected to overtake Micron next quarter — and CXMT is joining it. Samsung still leads NAND at 28%, with SK Hynix and Micron behind. Meanwhile the shortage remains the real story: AI server demand has memory tight through at least 2027, SK Hynix's CEO calls that year potentially "the industry's worst from a supply perspective," and TrendForce sees relief only in late next year. Memory prices alone could add 0.5 points to core PCE. So, the West is short of memory, paying for it in its inflation print, while the country it excluded builds two national champions to sell it.
Ban a competitor from your market and you don't remove him — you simply fund his independence and wait for him to price yours.
In a moment of exquisite self-unawareness, US Treasury Secretary ‘Scrooge Bessent’ — steward of a $40 trillion debt pile, who has just panic-doubled his "not-QE" buybacks to stop the long end from breaking — decided to lecture Japan about the dangers of borrowing endlessly, suppressing interest rates, and manipulating its currency, apparently without the faintest recognition that he was describing his own job. Bessent warns that instability in Japan's bond market, where the 10-year yield has surged past 3% to levels unseen since 1996, could "spill directly into US Treasuries" — a concern that is entirely valid and entirely hypocritical, since the actual fear is not for Tokyo's fiscal soul but for the $1.2 trillion in Treasuries Japanese institutions hold, capital that will quietly stop flowing to Washington.
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/how-bessent-americas-bond-salesman-cornered-japan-big-spending-2026-09-17/
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/how-bessent-americas-bond-salesman-cornered-japan-big-spending-2026-09-17/
The man who built his career trading global macro understands perfectly that the bond market eventually demands fiscal credibility — he simply believes, like every Washington politician, that America's debt is magically exempt because the dollar wears a reserve-currency crown. Japan is not a country to be lectured; it is a preview.