The Macro Butler returned to Türkiye’s Diplomacy with Umar Tasleem to decode the latest episode of the US-Iran “Waiting for Godot” peace negotiations — where diplomacy moves slower than oil inventories disappearing from global storage tanks. 🌍⛽️

We discussed:

⚠️ Why global oil shortages are spreading faster than policymakers admit

⚠️ How China is tightening mineral exports feeding the Western war machine

⚠️ Why Beijing is quietly strengthening economic alliances with Russia and ASEAN

⚠️ And how the Middle Kingdom is positioning itself for the next phase of global economic dominance while the Empire remains busy printing debt and exporting democracy by missile subscription package.

Meanwhile, markets still believe inflation is “transitory.”

History may have other plans. 📉🔥

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-turkiyes-diplomacy-b02

While markets continue waiting for the latest “Waiting for Godot” Middle East peace deal, the U.S. Treasury quietly sold $44 billion in 7-year notes to surprisingly strong demand. The auction cleared at 4.290%, the highest since January 2025, but still managed to stop through the When Issued level for the first time since December — proof that investors remain perfectly willing to finance trillion-dollar deficits as long as the geopolitical chaos comes with a slightly higher yield attached.

The bid-to-cover ratio rose to 2.52, the highest since July 2025 and comfortably above recent averages, while indirect bidders delivered a near-historic show of enthusiasm by absorbing more than 78% of the auction — the third-highest foreign allocation on record.

For indirect demand to surge that aggressively, someone else had to step aside — and unsurprisingly direct bidders did exactly that, with participation collapsing to 11.2%, the lowest since December 2024. Dealers were left holding just over 10% of the auction, reinforcing the view that foreign buyers remain the primary financiers of America’s ever-expanding fiscal “temporary emergency” spending programs.

Overall, the week ended with another blockbuster Treasury auction, as investors once again rushed into the asset class still marketed as “risk-free” — despite an environment of expanding wars, exploding deficits, and inflationary policies that increasingly make long-duration sovereign debt look like the financial equivalent of picking up pennies in front of an imperial steamroller.

The official propaganda insists the economy is “strong” because the stock market keeps reaching record highs — the same statistical magic every bubble uses before reality arrives with a bill. Wall Street floats higher while Main Street quietly learns the nutritional value of debt. According to the New York Fed, millions of Americans now struggle to afford food, but apparently food insecurity is less important than whether the S&P 500 feels optimistic this quarter. After printing trillions since 2020, policymakers inflated everything except real wages. Housing, rent, food, insurance, and basic survival costs exploded while asset owners became wealthier, and workers financed groceries with credit cards. Household debt now exceeds $18 trillion, proving that “consumer resilience” is simply the modern phrase for “people borrowing money to stay alive.”

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/food-insecurity-and-consumer-pessimism/

As in Rome and Weimar, financial assets rise beautifully right until society underneath begins to crack.

🚨 THE IRAN WAR ISN’T JUST ABOUT OIL… IT’S ABOUT YOUR FOOD BILL 🚨

While politicians talk about “regional stability,” the real shockwave is already spreading through:

⛽️ Energy
🌾 Food
🚢 Shipping
💸 Inflation

Oil spikes don’t stay at the gas pump.
They hit fertilizers, transport, farming, supermarkets — EVERYTHING.
And while central bankers keep chanting “inflation is under control,” households are discovering that groceries now cost more than some monthly car payments. 🍞📈

This is how geopolitical chaos quietly becomes a global cost-of-living crisis.

Watch carefully:
The next inflation wave may not end on Wall Street…
It is coming to your kitchen. 🍽🔥

Learn to Earn with The Macro Butler Financial Academy: https://themacrobutler.com/financial-academy/

🤵 The Macro Butler Weekly Digest 🤵

🌐 How a once-in-a-generation climate event, a crippled fertilizer market, and fractured supply chains are conspiring to reshape what the world eats. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-harvest-of-chaos

🚨 CHINA’S SECRET WEAPON ISN’T A MISSILE... IT’S SILVER 🚨

While everyone is watching the oil war, Beijing is quietly tightening its grip on the minerals that power:
⚡️ AI
🔋 Batteries
🛰 Defence Systems
☀️ Solar Panels

The next global conflict may not be fought with tanks...
It may be fought with supply chains. 🌍
The West spent decades outsourcing production.
China spent decades securing resources.

Now the bill is coming due.
💥 No minerals = No chips
💥 No chips = No AI
💥 No AI = No technological dominance
The real battlefield of the 21st century isn't only oil. It's who controls the metals that power the future.

Learn to Earn with The Macro Butler Financial Academy: https://themacrobutler.com/financial-academy/

Listen to a summary of The Macro Butler weekly newsletter via podcast on Substack; YouTube; Rumble; Spotify & TikTok.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-harvest-of-chaos-podcast

The latest PMI data from The Middle Kingdom suggest that Beijing is once again dusting off its favourite economic playbook: when growth slows, build something large. After a brief pause in April, construction activity rebounded despite the usual seasonal slowdown, signalling that fiscal stimulus and infrastructure spending are returning to centre stage. Beneath the surface, however, the picture is less impressive. Holiday spending received a temporary boost from May vacations and newly invented local spring breaks, proving once again that consumers spend more when they are not at work. Manufacturing activity slipped back to the 50-point dividing line between expansion and contraction, while weaker export orders reflected softer demand from overseas markets.

While exports remain a relative bright spot, policymakers appear increasingly likely to step up support through faster fiscal spending and additional monetary easing measures, including potential cuts to policy rates and reserve requirements. At the same time, inflation pressures linked to the Iran conflict eased modestly, with input and output prices retreating from recent highs. However, supply-chain conditions deteriorated slightly for the first time since the conflict began. As Confucius might have observed, when growth depends on pouring more concrete, one should be careful not to mistake construction activity for lasting prosperity.

In a nutshell, China's latest PMI data suggest that when growth slows, Beijing still reaches for its favorite stimulus tool: pour more concrete, cut a few rates, and hope scaffolding looks enough like prosperity.

🚨 CHINA ISN’T PLAYING CHESS ANYMORE… IT’S REDESIGNING THE BOARD 🚨

While the US is obsessed with spending US taxpayers’ dollars to defend the interest of a foreign country controlling its establishment, Beijing is busy building alliances, securing resources, and reshaping global trade routes.

🇨🇳 Minerals
🇨🇳 Energy
🇨🇳 Manufacturing
🇨🇳 Global Influence

The question is no longer whether China is rising.
The question is whether the West realizes the game has already changed.
⚠️ The biggest geopolitical shift of our lifetime is happening in plain sight.

Learn to Earn with The Macro Butler Financial Academy: https://themacrobutler.com/financial-academy/

Dear Investors,

Please find below the performance of The Macro Butler IG Portfolio as of end of May 2026.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-ig-portfolio-may-028

Dear Investors,

Please find below the performance of The Macro Butler Strategic Portfolio as of end of May 2026.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-strategic-portfolio-468