In yet another Oscar-worthy production from the Empire’s media studios, the CNN and friends dusted off the greatest hits of wartime fiction—because why stop at “mushroom clouds” when you can upgrade to… suicide dolphins? Even as The Vice In Chief floated nuclear vest scenarios, the expert class boldly pushed the plot forward, and anchors nodded along as if this were marine biology rather than late-night comedy. Reality check: yes, the United States once trained dolphins—to find mines, not audition for action movies—while Iran’s supposed aquatic kamikaze fleet remains exactly where it belongs: somewhere between fiction and very creative storytelling.

https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/2050387447637279233

As “Epic Fury: Season 2” edges toward its inevitable release, the Department of the Treasury of the Empire quietly revised its borrowing needs higher, now expecting $189 billion in net issuance for the quarter—up roughly $80 billion from its February estimate—courtesy of softer cash flows. Naturally, this comes with the comforting assumption that the quarter-end cash balance will remain a perfectly controlled $900 billion.

This increase in borrowing needs is primarily reflecting weaker net cash flows (notably lower tax receipts), partially offset by a stronger-than-expected starting cash balance of $893 billion versus $850 billion previously assumed. Adjusting for this higher starting balance, borrowing needs would be $122 billion above prior estimates. In Q1 2026, Treasury borrowing totalled $577 billion, broadly in line with forecasts, with a higher ending cash balance driving the modest variance. Looking ahead, Treasury expects to borrow $671 billion in the next quarter, targeting a $950 billion cash balance by end-September, consistent with the seasonally higher funding requirements typically observed in the third quarter.

While Uncle Scrooge —still fully committed to his role as “Sanctions-in-Chief”—tightens the screws on anyone trading with Iran, China responded with refreshing subtlety by telling its companies to simply ignore the rules. Activating its 2021 blocking statute for the first time, Beijing effectively informed firms (including targets like Hengli Petrochemical) that U.S. sanctions are optional—preferably ignored, and potentially punishable if followed. The message is clear: while Washington escalates financial pressure, Beijing is now openly rewriting the rulebook, just in time for the next round of high-stakes diplomacy—because nothing sets the mood for a summit quite like a pre-emptive economic standoff.

https://x.com/henrysgao/status/2050565272030097658

While China politely ignores sanctions threats and keeps trading with Iran, Donald Copperfield’s grand plan for “supply chain independence” kicks off by… buying critical minerals from China. The Export-Import Bank of the United States’s $12 billion Project Vault promises eventual self-reliance, but only after an initial shopping spree wherever supply exists—because nothing says strategic autonomy like depending on the very supplier you’re trying to escape, at least until further notice.

https://www.mining.com/web/us-critical-mineral-inventory-plan-includes-buying-china-metals/

On “May the Fourth,” the geopolitical excursion added another dramatic episode as Iran allegedly launched a volley of missiles toward Fujairah. The United Arab Emirates called it a dangerous escalation, while oil markets reacted faster than a hyperdrive jump. Collateral damage included a struck tanker linked to ADNOC and disruptions across the Strait of Hormuz, as airports shut, flights diverted, and schools went remote again—because nothing says “regional stability” like missiles and Zoom classes. Meanwhile, the usual galactic council—India, the EU, and others—issued stern condemnations and called for diplomacy, once again proving that in this saga, everyone prefers negotiations… right after the explosions.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/4/uae-reports-missile-and-drone-strikes-incoming-from-iran#flips-6394621753112:0

The Macro Butler returned to Türkiye’s Diplomacy with Umar Tasleem to break down a world running on fumes—tight oil and gas markets, looming food shortages as the real catalyst for regime change, and the ever-reliable “Washington swamp” doing its part to erode trust.

The takeaway? In times of war and dysfunction, tangible assets don’t just shine—they become the only game in town.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-turkiyes-diplomacy-24e

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🎬 Plot twist nobody priced in...

The real losers of “Epic Fury” aren’t Iran, the US, or even Europe… it’s the Gulf Cooperation Council.

💥 The so-called “safe haven” built on oil and optimism is starting to look like a sandcastle—cracks showing, debt rising, and a sovereign reality check loading.

👀 The mirage is still there… but the smoke is clearing.

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After a conveniently “strong” manufacturing ISM boosted by higher prices, the ISM Services PMI quietly disappointed, slipping to 53.6 as new orders fell, employment contracted again, and prices stayed stubbornly high. Beneath the headline, growth is clearly losing momentum—consumer demand is fading under higher costs, and even financial services are cooling, as uncertainty and rising rates finally start doing what they’re supposed to do.

In a nutshell, the ISM Services PMI is still “expanding”—just with collapsing demand, rising costs, and a growing sense that the slowdown is already here.

In the latest quarterly borrowing ritual from the Treasury of the Empire, officials once again reassured markets that there would be no unpleasant surprises—by refusing to even whisper about increasing long-term coupon issuance. Instead, Treasury stuck to the now legendary “for at least the next several quarters” guidance, confirming that the preferred strategy remains flooding the market with short-term bills and hoping nobody notices the refinancing risk building underneath. Despite exploding deficits and rising borrowing needs, the playbook remains unchanged: issue more short-term debt, keep long-term yields artificially calm, and let the next administration worry about the consequences. Even the International Monetary Fund politely warned that relying so heavily on bills leaves the Empire increasingly vulnerable to shifts in rates and investor sentiment—but apparently that problem belongs to future historians.

And, right on cue, markets rewarded the Treasury’s “nothing to see here” strategy with lower yields after officials kept auction guidance unchanged. The message was clear: deficits may explode, borrowing needs may rise, but as long as the Empire keeps rolling short-term bills fast enough, apparently everything remains “well positioned.” Treasury also reassured investors that it continues to “evaluate” future increases in coupon and FRN issuance—the financial equivalent of promising to think about exercising someday. Meanwhile, the latest refunding package came in at $125 billion, unchanged from February and perfectly aligned with Wall Street expectations, because stability is apparently achieved by refinancing ever larger debt piles one Treasury bill at a time.

The Treasury maintained its now familiar guidance of keeping coupon auction sizes unchanged for the coming quarters, continuing the delicate art of pretending exploding deficits require no meaningful adjustment in long-term issuance. The latest refunding package will raise approximately $41.7 billion in new cash through $125 billion of issuance, including $58 billion in 3-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds.

For now, the Empire remains committed to its favourite strategy: refinance massive debt piles as smoothly as possible and hope markets continue applauding the absence of surprises.

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In another reminder that the economy looks far less “strong” outside the Washington and Wall Street bubble, U.S. foreclosure filings have climbed to their highest level in six years, with ATTOM reporting a 26% YoY increase as households struggle under rising property taxes, soaring insurance costs, elevated rates, and mounting consumer debt. Florida and Texas are at the epicentre, where homeowners increasingly discover that even a low fixed mortgage rate does not protect them from exploding total ownership costs.

https://www.attomdata.com/news/most-recent/foreclosure-rates-by-state/

Unlike 2008, this is not a crisis driven by toxic subprime leverage and collapsing bank balance sheets. Most homeowners today locked in low fixed rates and lending standards have been tighter. The real problem is affordability exhaustion: insurance, utilities, taxes, maintenance, and debt servicing are all rising simultaneously while wage growth lags behind. The result is not a sudden housing collapse, but a slow-motion squeeze where the market becomes increasingly frozen, consumer finances steadily deteriorate, and confidence erodes one monthly bill at a time.

In a press conference masterfully conducted by Viceroy Rubio — that virtuoso of diplomatic dystopia — the Empire has unveiled its bold new strategic objective for Operation Epic F**k-Up, entering another day of decisive hourly victories: the goal is to restore the access to the Strait of Hormuz exactly the way it was before the Empire started the war.
To summarise: the Empire launched a holy war, closed the world's most critical oil chokepoint, destroyed a quarter of global LNG supply, sent gasoline above $4, triggered the Trump Stagflation, introduced Europe to fuel rationing, deployed troops to hotels, fired its Army Chief of Staff, blockaded a blockade, threatened the Pope, called Iran "crazy bastards" on Easter Sunday, and has now — after all these days of uninterrupted victory — concluded that the optimal outcome is things going back to the way they were.

The way they were, one recalls, was before all of the above happened.

The Ministry of Victory wishes to assure the public that this represents a major strategic breakthrough. Critics have noted that "restoring things to the way they were before the war" is also known as "not starting the war." The Ministry has no comment. Viceroy Rubio is understood to be working on the messaging. The Strait remains closed. The irony does not. 😂

Fresh off the plane from China, The Macro Butler landed straight on The Contrarian Capitalist Podcast— and what he saw in the Middle Kingdom will change the way you think about the next decade.

While the Empire wages holy wars and drowns in stagflation, China is already living in the future — AI-powered, decoupled from the West, and quietly positioning itself to thrive in exactly the kind of chaotic world that Washington just accidentally created.

This is the interview that connects the dots:

🤖 China’s AI revolution — it’s not coming, it’s already here

🌏 The great decoupling — and why it’s irreversible

📈 How China wins while the West burns

🎙 Pull up a chair. This one will make you rethink everything you thought you knew about the world’s next superpower.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-the-contrarian-capitalist-71f