The Bureau of Labor Statistics has delivered March PPI data with the reassuring headline that wholesale prices rose a modest 0.5% — a figure that requires one to look past gasoline jumping 15.7%, diesel and jet fuel surging, energy PPI leaping 8.5%, and transportation and warehousing costs climbing 1.3%, all courtesy of a war won comprehensively on Hour 1 of Day 1. The Ministry of Propaganda will be particularly pleased that core PPI — that ingeniously curated measure that excludes the things actually getting more expensive — rose a mere 0.1%, pulling the year-on-year core reading down from 3.9% to 3.8%, which the same analysts who missed the inflation surge of 2021 are already describing as "good news." It is not good news.

The pipeline for inflation is accelerating with the enthusiasm of a 15.7% gasoline price increase working its way through every supply chain, logistics network, and production cost in the American economy — a transmission mechanism that the core PPI measure has been specifically designed not to capture until it is too late to ignore.

Those who haven’t outsourced their thinking to Wall Street’s EYIs know that what actually matters for equities isn’t the latest narrative—it’s the spread between core CPI and core PPI, i.e., whether companies can pass on rising input costs and protect margins. In March, that spread turned negative for the fifth consecutive month—apparently a minor detail, unless you remember 2021–2022, when the same dynamic helped knock the shine off equity markets. But sure, higher energy costs squeezing margins is probably bullish this time—especially if you’re still riding the AI FOMO train.

In a nutshell, headline PPI politely whispers “all is well,” while surging energy costs and a fifth straight negative CPI–PPI spread quietly scream that inflation—and margin compression—are just getting started.

In a plot twist no one saw coming (except everyone), Donald Copperfield’s chosen successor to Jerome Too Late, Kevin ‘Wash-Lauder’, heads to chair the FED armed with at least $192 million in disclosed wealth—give or take a few “confidential” hundreds of millions. Married to Jane Lauder of Estée Lauder Companies fame, and freshly enriched by generous consulting gigs (including a casual $10 million+ from Stanley Druckenmiller’s family office), ‘Wash-Lauder’ is set to become one of the wealthiest central bankers in history. His disclosures read less like a public service résumé and more like a diversified hedge fund brochure—complete with AI startups, crypto bets, and mystery assets he promises to “totally divest.” Naturally, he’ll now be tasked with regulating the very financial universe he’s been comfortably orbiting—because nothing says independence like a few hundred million in prior entanglements.

https://prod-i.a.dj.com/public/resources/documents/kevin-warsh-federal-reserve-financial-discloure-2026.pdf

So, after a war supposedly “won on Day 1, Hour 1” and with the Empire’s navy marketed as the world’s unbeatable armada, the USS George H.W. Bush Carrier Strike Group is… taking the scenic route around Africa to avoid the Red Sea. Rather than a textbook transit through familiar chokepoints, the fleet is carefully steering clear of areas where drones and missiles have made things a bit less “invincible.” Meanwhile, a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is being rolled out with all the legal disclaimers and operational caveats of a “major undertaking,” quietly acknowledging that controlling global chokepoints is slightly more complicated than the brochure suggested.

https://news.usni.org/2026/04/13/carrier-uss-george-h-w-bush-operating-off-southern-africa-as-iranian-blockade-begins

In a moment worthy of a Confucian proverb, Master Xi gently informed Don Pedro, Premier of the crumbled empire of Hispania, that the “international order” had not so much evolved as politely unraveled into moral and strategic chaos—apparently what happens when empires confuse strategy with improvisation. While discussing olive oil, Rioja, and the small matter of global stability, Master Xi called for cooperation to avoid a return to the “law of the jungle,” subtly noting that recent geopolitical adventures have been less “rules-based order” and more “choose your own chaos.” Meanwhile, with trade routes strained and tensions rising, Spain now finds itself cast as a diplomatic bridge—because when the system wobbles, even middle powers get promoted.

https://www.afr.com/world/asia/world-order-crumbling-into-disarray-says-xi-20260414-p5znw3

The Macro Butler is back—this time with Christian White from Marbella Media 🔥

We cut through the noise (and there’s a lot of it) to break down what “Epic Fury” really means for the global economy:

📉 Stagflation isn’t a risk—it’s the new playbook

🧠 Why surviving this cycle requires actual skills (not headlines)

💸 How governments “default”… without ever saying the word

If you still think this is business as usual, this one might hurt a little.

🎧 Watch now—and decide if you’re reacting… or actually understanding.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-christian-white-13032026

In a development that will shock absolutely no one outside Wall Street’s EYIs, who still treat counterparty risk as a theoretical concept, the “barbaric relic” keeps quietly doing its job. The People's Bank of China reported its 17th consecutive monthly gold purchase in March, adding 5 tonnes—the largest increase since February 2025—bringing total holdings to 2,313 tonnes. Gold now represents around 9% of China’s reserves (down slightly due to a temporary price pullback), with cumulative purchases reaching 7 tonnes for the quarter—the strongest pace since Q1 2025. Apparently, some institutions still prefer assets without counterparties… how quaint.

https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2026/04/china-gold-market-update-seasonal-demand-rebound-march

The wise nation does not react—it prepares. China has continued its quiet accumulation of gold, with the People's Bank of China extending its buying streak while selling the most dangerous asset it could still own US IOUs. This is less a hedge and more a patient shift away from a system built on ever-growing sovereign debt and fragile confidence. While others debate, China steadily exchanges paper promises for an asset with no counterparty risk—mirroring a broader global trend as central banks rediscover that in uncertain times, independence is the most valuable reserve of all.

As Confucius might note, the prudent prepare before the storm is visible: China’s approach is patient and deliberate, steadily building reserves to withstand any loss of confidence in sovereign debt markets. It is not abandoning the system but quietly hedging against its potential fragility—because the wise do not wait for crisis; they prepare for it.

The Macro Butler was back on air with Steve Yang from Natural Resources Stocks—and yes, we went full commodity mode 🔥

From oil to natural gas, fertilizers to helium (because why not?), we break down how “Epic Fury” is quietly turning everything you actually need into the new luxury goods.

📈 Commodities are moving

📉 Narratives are lagging

🧠 And investors? Still trying to buy the dip in memes

We explain why “Tremendous Trump Stagflation” isn’t a theory—it’s a playbook… and why the smartest strategy might simply be: if you can store it, you probably want to own it.

🎧 Watch now—before your grocery bill becomes your portfolio.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-asharq-natural-resources

In a move that surprises absolutely no one, Uncle Scrooge Bessent dusted off the well-worn “maximum pressure” script, warning China and anyone else still buying Iranian oil that sanctions are coming—again. With the Empire now enforcing a maritime blockade, Washington confidently “expects” Chinese purchases to pause, because stern letters to banks and threats of secondary sanctions have historically worked so flawlessly. Meanwhile, after conveniently issuing waivers that allowed millions of barrels to flow when it suited the market, the same playbook is back in full force—tighten, loosen, repeat—because nothing says strategic consistency like improvising energy policy in real time.

While Scrooge Bessent was busy threatening sanctions from afar, Mandarin Xi and Confucian Master Lavrov were calmly doing what seasoned powers tend to do—signalling deeper cooperation, with Russia politely offering to plug China’s energy gaps as if global supply chains were just another dinner arrangement. As Washington experiments with blockades that conveniently squeeze its own Asian allies, Beijing leans on diversified supply, stockpiles, and a well-timed Russian partnership—highlighting the quiet irony that policies meant to isolate are instead reinforcing alternative alliances, with Moscow and Beijing positioning themselves as the adults in a room Washington insists on setting on fire.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2026/04/15/fm-lavrov-pledges-energy-support-to-china-after-meeting-with-xi-a92504

As Confucius might observe with a knowing smile, when distant empires engage in noisy little excursions in Persia, the wise kingdom continues its work quietly: China’s industrial output advanced a solid 5.7% in March, exceeding expectations, while retail sales grew a more contemplative 1.7%, as households appear to be practicing the ancient art of patience rather than enthusiasm. The lesson is familiar: production remains diligent, consumption remains cautious, and harmony between the two is still being negotiated. Beneath this calm surface, the economy reveals its subtle imbalances: factories remain the disciplined students of growth, supported by exports and high-tech ambition, while domestic demand behaves more like a reluctant pupil. Even as external turbulence rises, years of preparation—energy security, diversified supply, and a tolerance for deflation—have allowed China to absorb shocks with composure.

In a nutshell, China’s factories keep working hard while consumers keep thinking hard—leaving growth steady, but balance still politely delayed.

In honor of his holiness Donald I—the newly self-anointed Pope of Mar-a-Roma, blessing markets, tariffs, and truth posts alike.

Under the ever-reassuring banners of “efficiency” and “customer experience,” Visa has unveiled AI tools to “simplify” credit card disputes—because nothing says empowerment like replacing human judgment with algorithmic certainty.
With disputes conveniently exploding to over 100 million, the solution is not improvement but transformation: intercept behavior, standardize outcomes, and centralize decision-making into a seamless, data-driven system where every transaction thinks the same way.


https://qz.com/visa-ai-tools-credit-card-dispute-management

Naturally, this is framed as progress, not the quiet construction of a perfectly visible, perfectly controlled financial loop—one where discretion disappears, oversight consolidates, and every action is helpfully optimized on your behalf.

Welcome, Emperor Trumpoleon—master of tariffs, tweets, and the ever-expanding empire of 'strategic surprises.'

While Washington declared “mission accomplished” somewhere between hour one and the next press conference, Iran—apparently not informed it was supposed to collapse—has been quietly rebuilding bridges, rail lines, and even missile sites faster than the Empire can fix its own potholes. Despite tens of thousands of strikes meant to break both infrastructure and morale, the lights remain on, and repairs are clocked in hours, not months—turning the grand strategy of “bomb now, destabilize later” into a rather awkward demonstration of resilience. Meanwhile, the fragile ceasefire looks less like victory and more like a high-stakes staring contest, where both sides measure not who won, but who can endure the pain longer.

https://x.com/IRANinBULGARIA/status/2042856386963320977?s=20