In a development that the Ministry of Natural Disaster will no doubt classify as unrelated to Operation Epic F**k-Up, the global LNG market has achieved what insurance actuaries typically describe as a perfect storm — and then improved upon it. Two weeks after Iranian strikes on the Ras Laffan facility shuttered 17% of Qatar's LNG output at the world's largest liquefaction plant, Tropical Cyclone Narelle has helpfully arrived to disable Chevron's Wheatstone gas plant in Western Australia, disrupting supply equivalent to more than 30 million metric tons per year and ensuring that the facility will not return to full operations for weeks. The combined arithmetic has obligingly calculated, amounts to more than a quarter of global LNG supply simultaneously disrupted. Nature, it appears, has joined the axis of resistance. The Ministry reports that energy markets remain orderly. Energy markets disagree.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-reports-outage-australian-gas-facilities-due-cyclone-2026-03-26/

Chevron has confirmed, with admirable corporate understatement, that Wheatstone will require "a number of weeks" to return to full production following Cyclone Narelle — a timeline the global LNG market, already missing 17% of Qatari output courtesy of the ‘Epic F**k Up’, is receiving poorly. Gorgon has returned to full operations; Woodside's North West Shelf is working to resume. Combined, the three facilities represented nearly half of Australian exports last month — roughly 8.4% of global trade. Australia's promotion to the world's second-largest LNG exporter is less a commercial achievement than a process of elimination. China, having pivoted to Australian LNG after Qatar declared force majeure, has discovered that its replacement supplier has also been hit — by weather rather than ordnance, though the gas market appears indifferent to the distinction.

More than a quarter of global LNG supply is now simultaneously disrupted. The Ministry of Victory reports that everything is going extremely well.

In a masterclass of theological entrepreneurship, Paula White-Cain — spiritual advisor to the Manipulator-in-Chief and High Priestess of the Washington theocracy — has identified a solution to the suffering caused by Operation Epic F**k-Up: Americans already struggling with $100 oil, 8% postal surcharges, and evaporating purchasing power should kindly donate the holy land behind this Malthusian operation. The theological investment thesis is straightforward — "when you bless Israel, God blesses you" — payable via Cash App, Venmo, or direct website donation.

This arrangement is the last grift scam that the Ministry of Divine Finance has declined to address.

And it came to pass, in the dawning hours before the markets opened on Monday, that the Manipulator-in-Chief ascended once more unto Truth Social to deliver unto the theocracy of Tehran a message of such contradictory wisdom that even the prophets of old would have struggled with its interpretation. For in one breath, he proclaimed the imminent arrival of a new and more reasonable regime with whom a covenant of peace might be struck, and in the next he threatened to rain down Armageddon upon Persia with a fury that would make the plagues of Egypt appear a modest inconvenience. And the IRGC, having heard these words, prepared its response accordingly. For the Lord of Hosts Koeth that every action begetteth a reaction, and that the puppet monarchies of the Gulf — already consecrated upon the altar of this conflict whatever its outcome — stand as the first dominoes in a chain of retribution that stretch from the Strait of Hormuz unto the uttermost ends of the earth.

And the people looked upon these developments and were greatly troubled. And the oil price rose. And it was written that the Malthusian depopulation agenda, having been set in motion by those who confused Truth Social with diplomacy and ideology with strategy, would spare neither the Gulf nor the globe. Selah.

And lo, while Season 2 entered pre-production, the nations gathered to deliberate upon the most consequential question of the age: who hold the cards. The Manipulator-in-Chief claims to hold them. Tehran claims likewise. MBS holds several decks simultaneously and will not show his hand. China watches from a distance, mapping the ocean floor and saying nothing — which is, historically, the strongest hand of all. And the bond market, that most honest of arbiters, has begun rendering its own verdict — quietly, expensively, and with the patience of an institution that has outlasted every empire that ever-issued debt it could not repay.

He who holds the cards in an inflationary bust is not he who proclaims loudest on Truth Social. It is he who holds the gold.

While the foolish man watches the fire across the straits, the wise man tends his own furnace. China, ever the dutiful student, has done precisely that: while the Empire wages its holy war and the rest of the world's PMIs contract in sympathy, the Middle Kingdom's official manufacturing index expanded to 50.4 in March — its first return to growth this year — beating every consensus estimate with the quiet satisfaction of a civilisation that has been ignoring Western advice since before Washington was a city. Non-manufacturing followed, rising to 50.1 against expectations of contraction. Government spending, AI-driven export demand, and the ancient Confucian virtue of minding one's own business have proven more durable economic stimulants than geopolitical enthusiasm. The divergence is notable: manufacturing robust, services soft, and Chinese factories quietly absorbing higher oil costs while the architects of those higher oil costs celebrate their first-hour victory.

Confucius taught that the man who absorbs today's pain with patience accumulates tomorrow's advantage. Chinese manufacturers, displaying precisely this virtue, recorded their fastest surge in raw material costs in four years during March — crude, copper, aluminium, and logistics costs all rising sharply in the wake of a conflict they did not start and cannot stop. Yet in a characteristically pragmatic act of strategic self-sacrifice, factories have chosen to absorb a portion of the cost shock rather than pass it entirely to customers — sustaining competitiveness at the expense of margins, and market share at the expense of profitability. The NBS statistician, with admirable understatement, attributed the pressure to "geopolitical conflict in the Middle East" — a phrase that translates, in the language of the ancient masters, as: the foolish man starts the fire and the wise man pays for the smoke.

The question the next PMI will answer is how long Chinese manufacturers can continue footing part of a bill that Washington wrote.

The Macro Butler made his customary appearance on Asharq Bloomberg TV to close out Q1 with some uncomfortable arithmetic: oil markets are still mispricing the energy shock from Operation Epic F**k-Up, prices are heading materially higher before demand destruction does the Fed’s job for it, and Russian oil — despite everyone’s hopes — will not ride to the rescue.

In America, diesel shortages are coming which means the grocery bill for everyone not dining at a Washington plutocracy fundraiser is about to become considerably more thought-provoking.

The message, as always, was simple: the market is wrong, the cycle is right, and the ancient masters would have shorted consumer discretionary.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-asharq-bloomberg-tv-197

In a display of alliance management that Clausewitz could not have anticipated, the Manipulator-in-Chief paused his continuous victory lap over a decimated adversary — who continues, with remarkable persistence for a defeated nation, to regulate the Strait of Hormuz — to attack his own NATO allies before breakfast on Tuesday. The North Atlantic Terror Organization, having not dutifully followed Washington into its holy adventure, now finds itself presented with a binary choice of breathtaking elegance: purchase American jet fuel at whatever price the Empire deems appropriate, or go procure it themselves by fighting their way across the straits that the decimated enemy still controls.

The ancient art of alliance management, one notes, has never been practiced with such creative efficiency. NATO's foreign ministers are understood to be reviewing their options. The options are not good.

🤵 The Macro Butler’s Monthly Meditation 🤵

🌐 Invisible, indispensable, and surprisingly powerful, helium commands attention when it tightens its grip. 🌐

Read more here: https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butlers-monthly-meditation-a41

Dear Investors,

Please find below the performance of The Macro Butler Long/Short Portfolio as of end of March 2026.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-longshort-portfolio-7e8

Dear Investors,

Please find below the performance of The Macro Butler Strategic Portfolio as of end of March 2026.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-strategic-portfolio-a0c

Dear Investors,

Please find below the performance of The Macro Butler IG Portfolio as of end of March 2026.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/the-macro-butler-ig-portfolio-march-3b1

At dawn on April Fools’ Day — the most appropriate date imaginable — The Macro Butler arrived on BFM 89.9 to deliver the kind of news that is no joke: higher oil prices, global stagflation, and a portfolio reshuffle that Wall Street’s cheerleaders are not yet ready to recommend. The verdict was unambiguous — the only dip worth buying right now is the one in gold, and everything else is a trap dressed up as an opportunity.

Happy April Fools’ Day. The macro, unfortunately, is entirely serious.

https://themacrobutler.substack.com/p/interview-with-bfm-899-malaysia-01042026

The US Census Bureau has proudly delivered February retail sales data with the relevance of a weather forecast for a city that has since burned down. Sales rebounded 0.6% — ten of thirteen categories posted gains, auto sales surged 1.2%, and economists declared the consumer "pretty resilient" — all of which was true approximately five weeks ago, before Operation Epic F**k-Up sent gasoline above $4 a gallon, destroyed a quarter of global LNG supply, and rendered every February data point as useful as a rotten avocado on a tanker waiting to transit a closed strait.

The figures are not adjusted for inflation, which is fitting, since inflation has not adjusted itself for the figures either. The retail picture heading into the Iran war was, by all accounts, reasonably constructive. The retail picture heading out of it is a separate dataset entirely — one that the Census Bureau will deliver, with customary precision, approximately six weeks after it ceases to matter.

In a nutshell, February retail sales were resilient — unfortunately, February was five weeks and one holy war ago.