A (Israeli) subscriber sent me this graph.

It shows a detailed breakdown of the recent Iran-led missile campaign (13–18 June), with roughly 420–450 projectiles fired at Israel across 20 waves. But the key story isn’t the total—it’s the timing.

Over 84% of the missiles came in the first nine waves (13–16 June), most in the pre-dawn hours, averaging ~40 missiles per volley. After the 16 June 04:10 salvo, the launch rate collapsed. Only one medium burst (≈20 missiles) happened later, on 17 June at 08:41. Everything else was small, sporadic, and largely symbolic.

Why the sudden drop-off? Four plausible reasons:
1. Stockpile depletion – early saturation likely burned through Iran’s ready-to-launch inventory.
2. Effective Israeli strikes – counter-battery fire may have destroyed or disrupted key launchers.
3. Mission accomplished – Tehran showed reach, rallied its base, and rattled markets. More missiles meant more risk for less payoff.
4. Command friction – coordination across Iran, proxies, and C2 elements is hard; follow-up salvos likely stalled without approvals or logistics.

Also worth noting:
• OSINT count (450) vs IDF claim (400)—a typical 10% gap, due to radar-confirmed vs visual/telemetry-based tallies.
• Attack timings aimed to exploit Israeli crew fatigue and clutter interceptor sensors (01:00–05:00 local).
• The missile mix (ballistic, cruise, drones) isn’t clear from the graph but matters for understanding defensive strain.

Bottom line: This was a front-loaded blitz, designed to shock and awe. Once Israel’s layered systems held, the rest was optics. The offensive peaked early and fizzled fast.

— The Palestinian Observer

@ThePalestinianObserver

Missile Barrage Timeline (13–18 June)

Wave | Time (UTC) | Missiles | Cumulative Total
-----|----------------------|----------|------------------
1 | 13 Jun 21:02 | ≈42 | 42
2 | 13 Jun 23:13 | ≈41 | 83
3 | 14 Jun 01:07 | ≈38 | 121
4 | 14 Jun 04:38 | ≈19 | 140
5 | 14 Jun 05:14 | ≈22 | 162
6 | 14 Jun 23:10 | ≈42 | 204
7 | 15 Jun 02:52 | ≈48 | 252
8 | 15 Jun 16:08 | ≈50 | 302
9 | 16 Jun 04:10 | ≈55 | 357
10–20| 16 Jun 19:38 → 18 Jun 01:25 | ≈66 (combined) | ≈423

The last 10 waves combined are almost the size of one wave at the beginning

Wow really?

Sirens in Amman