Commentary on the Middle-Eastern Dimension of the Global Crisis (by Tim Jeanes)

Middle East Eye: US lawmakers slam OPEC+ oil cuts, threaten to withdraw military support for Saudi Arabia. Democratic lawmakers say the OPEC+ decision is a 'slap in the face' to the US, introducing a bill to end Washington's support to Saudi Arabia and UAE.

Potentially if the US follows through with its statement made, that could either create an opportunity for Saudi's enemies to strike, or it could go the other way and push them together.

I doubt that Saudi Arabia's enemies would use that opportunity to attack them as in reality we have the Middle East split by two Islamic Religious groups, namely Shia and Sunni.

The main split of these group areas is as follows:

SUNNI Countries surrounding the Middle East: UAE (85% Sunni), Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tahikistan, Turkey, and Uzbekistan.

SHIA Countries: Iran, Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Bahrain.

Yemen consists primarily of two principal Islamic religious groups: 65% of the Muslim population is Sunni Muslim and around 35% is Zaydi Shia; however, they still have bad blood with the Saudis in view of the recent attacks.

Taking these odds into account, I doubt if the latter will seize that opportunity, and, if so, that would give Israel the window of opportunity to strike Iran. (The question needs to be asked if this is part of the American plan?)

Furthermore, OPEC+ support for Russia creates a huge geopolitical advantage for Russia to offer Saudi Arabia and UAE. This would include Russian-made air defence systems to make up for what the US has threatened to withdraw; however, that would only happen if there is a complete split from the US with no US bases and such within those two countries, failing which the US would become privy to the operations of Russian air defence systems.

Bear in mind that we are going through a huge geopolitical shift and a change to the Unipolar Order that we currently have, where the US is the one state that enjoys a preponderance of power and faces no competitor states in the conditions of international anarchy.

The bottom line here is that this potential threat could either create a massive Middle Eastern conflict or could strengthen Russia and China’s goal of achieving a Multipolar World.

https://t.iss.one/SLGmaps/10

@Slavyangrad / SLG OSINT Unit (Tim Jeanes)
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

#YURI Russians counterattack near Liman, pushing back the enemy away from Kremennaya to Terny-Torskoye line. If they manage to hold these strategic settlements, the third battle for Liman, with roles reversed, may happen. Wagner men enter south-eastern parts of Bakhmut. Attacks near Donetsk towards Pervomayskoye continue to reach the third line of defence of Avdeyevka and threaten its supply routes. No active actions of the enemy in Zaporozhye or Kherson, but a large-scale enemy offensive is possible in the comming days.

Missile stike on Ukraines power grid continue with the same intensity as yesterday. The countdown to a complete energetic collapse is estimated by the Ukrainian side as 7-10 days (if the strikes continue). Yuri considers that it may happen in much faster, subject to the same condition.

Disponible en Español: @rpd_es.

The Virtues of Digesting Strategic SMO Updates With Grains of Salt

Russian troops are reported to have rushed to take up positions at the Zherebets River line west of Kremennaya. Preliminary information suggests that Novosadovoye, Terny and Torskoye have been liberated, and fighting continues near Yampolovka and Kreminna Forest.

To understand the processes in the Svatovo-Kremennaya direction, let's recall the prehistory of the current fighting - namely the Kharkov region tragedy of September 6-10. Let's run through my notes:

On September 7, everyone writes about the prospect of the Izyum cauldron because of the cutting off of the road to Izyum from the north. However, they are wrong: "In the most catastrophic scenario Izyum grouping will not be surrounded, they have an opportunity to manoeuvre to the left bank of Oskol (that's where Sviatogorsk is located)." The regrouping is still a few days away, but it happened exactly as I said.

Also on September 7, a member of the OPSB gives information that all is not well on the left bank of Oskol. In particular, the 35th Army had taken with them the pontoon across the Seversky Donets during the regrouping and the adjoining forces didn't have theirs. Bad suspicions began to creep in.

On September 8, the situation worsens. Rybar gives information about the concentration of the AFU in the Izyum direction. "It also appears that an attack on the Krasny Liman district of the DPR is being prepared. The enemy has moved DRGs [Diversionary-Reconnaissance Groups] south of Krasny Liman and Yampol, as well as pontoon-engineering units to Raigorodok."

September 9: "A deeper breakthrough on the left bank of the Oskol, is impossible without a supporting strike from Slavyansk and Seversk to Izyum and Krasny Liman respectively." While Bezsonov will be claiming that the strike force that attempted to break into Liman from Seversk was defeated on September 7, the Khokhols will be finalising preparations to traverse the Seversky Donets river near Krasny Liman and Sviatogorsk. This will take place on the 10th.

The night of September 10: "A new problem has emerged in the form of an attempt to force the Seversky Donets in the direction of the DPR's Krasnolimansky district. As the evening haggle said, they can do this only tonight." That is exactly what will happen.

At that time, all sorts of military co-rat-spondents will be feeding you information about the reserves arriving and entering the battle.

The evening of 10 September: "The mobilised units holding Red Liman as of 16.30 this afternoon are literal heroes." This is due in part to the fact that our media had managed to surrender Krasny Liman. The media was wrong.

So, let us summarize: starting from September 7, i.e. the second day of the Ukrainian offensive, the strategic importance of Oskol for the Izyum grouping was obvious. And, consequently, the threat to the Krasny Liman district.

This was written about repeatedly until the moment when the 16th BARS battalion engaged in unequal combat with the superior enemy forces, giving time for our army to prepare the lines for defence.

The end of the first part, in the second we will see when Svatovo was first mentioned and how the fighting in the Krasnolimansk district was treated.

from @Zola_of_Renovation

https://t.iss.one/SLGmaps/12

@Slavyangrad / SLG Spetsnaz Detachment (Picchu)
Join SLG 🔺 Intelligence Briefings, Strategy and Analysis, Expert Community

Evening strikes on Ukronazi targets in Nikopol.

@voenkorKotenok

https://t.iss.one/voenkorKotenok/41542

Night exclusive.

The work of military personnel of the Armed Forces in the Kherson direction on the equipment and infantry of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which attempted to conduct reconnaissance in force.

The shots were fired, including from anti-tank systems and RPGs. After getting into the M113, in which there were 14 people, part of the Ukrainian military retreats to the forest belt, while the rest are trying to help their 300th, followed by a second arrival by transport.

@ok_spn

https://t.iss.one/milinfolive/91749

Today, there are fewer photos and videos of the consequences of the strikes than yesterday due to regular threats from the SBU, which threatens with criminal prosecution those citizens of Ukraine who will publish footage of Russian strikes and their consequences.
Thus, in Ukraine they are trying to extinguish the growing panic and construct cheap tales about the "high efficiency of Ukrainian air defense", which for some reason turned out to be unable to cover the key energy facilities of Ukraine.

https://t.iss.one/boris_rozhin/66819

Samsung's building in Kyiv was hit by a Kyiv Army Buk anti-aircraft missile that missed a Russian cruise missile. This happens regularly, both in Ukraine, Syria, Israel and elsewhere: using SAMs over cities exposes you to these problems.
https://t.iss.one/rybar/40082
https://t.iss.one/boris_rozhin/66882

https://t.iss.one/donbassinsider/23033

Russian Armed Forces damaged a third of Ukraine's energy infrastructure in two days

About 30% of Ukraine's energy infrastructure was hit by Russian retaliatory strikes in two days (since Monday, October 10), Energy Minister German Galushchenko said. So, in the Vinnitsa and Dnepropetrovsk regions, a regime of total energy saving was generally introduced.

At the moment, rolling blackouts are carried out in at least ten regions - Lviv, Ternopil, Ivano-Frankivsk, Khmelnytsky, Vinnitsa, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Poltava, Sumy and Kharkiv.

And that's just two days later. By the way, among the attacks on energy facilities, the Russian Aerospace Forces also attacked important logistics hubs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the railway. So, through these interchanges, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will no longer be able to either deliver or repair broken equipment.

https://t.iss.one/readovkanews/43984

Interesting footage of M777 howitzer firing

The video shows the operation of the induction adjustment of the fuse charge of the Excalibur high-precision projectile. Roughly speaking, it is like an NFC chip in a mobile phone, through which a projectile is programmed.

That is, if you use EW interference, then there is a chance that the projectile will explode on route of the trajectory.
Maybe the experts will be interested

https://t.iss.one/boris_rozhin/66895

Putin holds a meeting with the head of the IAEA

"Russia has always advocated that countries have equal access to peaceful atom," Vladimir Putin said at a meeting with the IAEA Director General. Russia remains committed to the nonproliferation of military nuclear technology, the Russian leader said. According to him, there are elements of excessive dangerous politicization of what is connected with nuclear activity, this rhetoric should be reduced. Putin, at a meeting with Grossi, suggested discussing the situation with the Zaporozhye nuclear power plant: Moscow is open to resolving all issues.

https://t.iss.one/WarDonbass/82124

02:20

🇺🇦 The Zaporozhye administration reported about arrivals in the regional center

There remains the possibility of repeated shelling of the region, - said Alexander Starukh.

"Did you make any decisions?" We can hit the decision-making centers as well.

https://t.iss.one/OstashkoNews/31477

Zelensky:

The enemy launched a second wave of terrorist attacks against our country. As of this morning, there were 28 missiles, of which 20 were shot down. More than 15 drones, almost all of them are Iranian combat drones. Most were shot down.

Restoration works are taking place quite quickly and efficiently throughout the country. If it wasn't for today's strikes, we would have already restored the energy supply, water supply and communications that the terrorists damaged yesterday. And today, Russia will achieve only one additional thing: it will delay our recovery a little.
 
Where there was destruction, the infrastructure will be renewed everywhere. Where there were losses, there is already or will be construction. Where there were any hopes of the enemy, there will be ruins of Russian statehood.

Mankind and humanity are stronger than any terrorists. I am thankful to everyone who fights and works for our victory!

Hat tip: Diego Cano of Slavyangrad chat:

Perhaps the goal of the strikes was not to kill civilians, as the Kievan terrorists desire with their strikes? These were attacks on the Kiev regime's ability to make war. This headline is bizarre and reveals the West's own projection of barbarity!

Russian engineers preparing defensive positions in the Donbas

Railroader's opinion:

“I have experience in the profession. Assistant driver of an electric locomotive, diesel locomotive, as well as by education I am a "Master of Railway Tracks, Construction and Maintenance", a total experience of 12 years.

I want to say the following. It is not the superstructure of the track itself that needs to be destroyed, the issue of restoration is a maximum of a day under the most terrible scenarios.

I would pay close attention to the fleet of locomotives, locomotive depots, PMS (track machine stations) - they are the ones who are engaged in the restoration of the track. To paralyze any movement on the railway, it is necessary to knock out the LOCOMOTIVE DEPO. Fortunately, their location is known (any junction station).

And another argument. It is impossible to restore the locomotive fleet, because European locomotives have a different gauge, and it is almost impossible to get locomotives of our gauge, because the locomotive fleet in Ukraine is almost all from the USSR.

In general, IMHO, if the Ministry of Defense wants to deliver sensitive and most effective strikes on industries, you need to ask the professionals. Judging by the attacks on the railway infrastructure, there were no such consultations.”

@sashakots

https://t.iss.one/sashakots/36481

Russia closes part of the Barents Sea for exercises.

We are most likely talking about the next stage of testing promising weapons.
#Russia

@new_militarycolumnist

https://t.iss.one/new_militarycolumnist/93757