https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1567852494780235777 #ECB new inflation projections are shocking: 8.1% this year, 5.5% in 2023 and 2.3% in 2024, miles away from the 2% target they want to hit in the medium term. ECB raises growth outlook for this year, but slashes outlook for 2023 & 2024. (via BBG) https://t.co/0yRfd9s2oa via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1567853505578254336 To put things into perspective: The 75 basis point rate hike is the largest in the #ECB's history. But the ECB is still way behind the curve. While #Inflation is at a record 9.1%, ECB deposit rate w/0.75%, light years away from a high. https://t.co/wYWlyT8u1b via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1567862328904794113 German 2y yields jump 15bps on Lagarde hawkishness. Markets price another huge rate rise next meeting! https://t.co/OxXBa2DDFU via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1567867785270775810 #ECB's Lagarde: We monitor very carefully and we have noted Euro depreciation rel to the dollar. We know it does have an impact on inflation, w/lagging time. It has direct and indirect effects as well and we are very attentive to those, but we do not target an exchange rate. https://t.co/keHy57faRN via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1567869199233568769 #ECB's Lagarde: Will probably hike at more than 2 more meetings, will probably hike at less than 5 more meetings. https://t.co/gK5YhkPuXD via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1567871412253212674 #ECB's Lagarde: If needed we’ll go above terminal rate to reach target. via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1567881422882365440 The #ECB jumbo rate hike was likely tipped by concerns about de-anchoring of inflation expectations, with few signs that inflation is slowing down, MS says. https://t.co/1gLSvqdG4b via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1567995928392474625 After Fed's Powell reiterated his hawkish stance, markets pricing in a 72bp hike on 9/21 with a Funds Rate of 3.82% on 12/31/22 and a cycle ceiling of ~3.9% in May 2023. (HT @knowledge_vital) https://t.co/Eza2K2ZfuL via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1568013727479496704 Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd says that if historical seasonals mean anything then US stocks should fall another 20% by mid-Oct as P/Es have trended lower when #inflation is higher. https://t.co/2H4VmEiTrC via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1568131697215954944 Good Morning from #Germany where Target2 balance jumped by €79bn in Aug due to rising stress in Eurozone w/10y Italy risk spread way above 200bps! Target2 claims of Bundesbank on rest of Eurosystem now at €1.24tn, €15bn shy of a fresh ATH, meaning substantial risks for Germany https://t.co/o9vm6ci7Cc via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1568132556872192001 OOPS! #Italy 10y yields back >4% following hawkish #ECB. This is likely to make bond yields an issue in the Italian election campaign. https://t.co/WsB1ZNi4T3 via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1568143916620304385 Running up govt debts is becoming more and more expensive. German 10y yields jump to 1.79%, trade near 8y high. https://t.co/YsljVBaT3r via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1568267043056799745 Energy prices continue to fall as EU Energy Ministers asked the Commission to come up w/emergency liquidity measures to help strained energy markets as well as severing the link between expensive gas and power prices. Gas drops 7% while German 1y ahead Power Price down 1.6%. https://t.co/pYKvoqEst8 via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1568345825545256960 #Italy’s right-wing coalition is poised for a landslide win in the elections on Sept. 25. Meloni’s bloc could win two-thirds majority in parliament. Last polls before electoral blackout published on Friday https://t.co/3vCCymU1Qi https://t.co/urtUtRiQe3 via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1568351243432611846 Risk rally picked up steam, S&P500 gained 3.7% over holiday-shortened week, lifting SPX >50d & 100d MAs, triggering short coverings. While Fed expectations grew more hawkish, swaps now pricing +72bp for Sep, mkts optimistic that CenBank can restore price stab w/o derailing growth https://t.co/nJiKvzwpau via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1568540732188725249 Good Morning from #Germany where yields of mortgage-backed securities (so-called Pfandbrief) rise significantly again. At 2.57%, they are close to an 11y high in another stress test for the battered German housing market. https://t.co/TphDUijQNd via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1568712572425146371 In case you missed it: Real yields across the curve have reached new highs. (via GS) https://t.co/aGIsJrAfPT via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1568863159305355265 Good Morning from Germany where chancellor Scholz says country ist well prepared to weather the fallout should Russia decide to halt gas deliveries altogether as gas storage level hit 87.6%. But nation’s towns concerned about severe energy blackout risks. https://t.co/FRLlPFRzeM https://t.co/dioCdUwn9J via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1568868330047676417 The risk spread of 10y German Mortgage Backed Securities (so-called Pfandbrief) over 10y Bund Yields has risen to almost 90bps, making real estate financing more expensive & highlighting the increasing risks of the German housing market. https://t.co/F4EzOnwQLv via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1568984084424327168 An $83bn investor stampede shows scale of Europe’s woes. War, a winter of energy rationing, a coming recession that could outlast any American one. Region is facing an energy-industry Lehman Brothers. Bank of America to BlackRock warn losses set to mount. https://t.co/B7ExdoLy3Z https://t.co/34uMFM8yq6 via @Schuldensuehner

https://twitter.com/Schuldensuehner/status/1569226633751535617 Good Morning from Germany, for which US is becoming increasingly important as export nation. In past 12mths, goods & services worth €139bn were sold to US, a record. France has overtaken China again as 2nd most important destination. Exports to CN have been stagnating for a yr. https://t.co/sfrulT3Ewy via @Schuldensuehner