This chart highlights why French President Macron is such fervent supporter of Eurobonds. France Virus debt could create another Italy. If econ does not pick up again, debt ratio could move to upward trajectory >120%, following Italy’s experience after GFC https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-28/french-virus-debt-could-create-another-italy-in-europe-chart?sref=61mHmpU4 … pic.twitter.com/mEj5CILye5
Bloomberg.com
French Virus Debt Could Create Another Italy
France’s economy is set to shrink by 8.6% this year in Bloomberg Economics’ central forecast, and that assumes the pandemic is brought under control and government support limits any lasting damage. The real danger is that the administration does too little…
#ECB Balance sheet hit fresh record at €5,347bn ahead of Thur's meeting as Lagarde keeps printing press rumbling & organizes EZ risk-sharing through balance sheet. Total assets rose by €64bn on QE & as banks took €19bn in TLTRO loans. Balance sheet now equals to 45% of EZ GDP. pic.twitter.com/GdwGjI9Ni5
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Holger Zschaepitz
#ECB Balance sheet hit fresh record at €5,347bn ahead of Thur's meeting as Lagarde keeps printing press rumbling & organizes EZ risk-sharing through balance sheet. Total assets rose by €64bn on QE & as banks took €19bn in TLTRO loans. Balance sheet now equals…
US Consumer Confidence in April fell to 86.9 vs. 118.8 prior month, lowest level since 2014. The US consumer represents around 16% of global GDP and is as important for the global economy than the whole economy of #China. pic.twitter.com/hxKzoaetlZ
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Holger Zschaepitz
US Consumer Confidence in April fell to 86.9 vs. 118.8 prior month, lowest level since 2014. The US consumer represents around 16% of global GDP and is as important for the global economy than the whole economy of #China.
Wall St drops on mega-cap slump. Dow Jones snaps 4d winning streak, erase almost 400 point gain as big tech shares like Facebook, Amazon and Netflix slide. pic.twitter.com/JCkFpeKiFl
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Holger Zschaepitz
Wall St drops on mega-cap slump. Dow Jones snaps 4d winning streak, erase almost 400 point gain as big tech shares like Facebook, Amazon and Netflix slide.
Fitch downgraded #Italy to BBB-, one notch above junk, outlook stable. Downgrade reflects significant impact of COVID-19 on Italy's econ & fiscal position. Expects debt to jump by 20pp to 156% of GDP by end-2020, compared w/ BBB median of 36% of GDP. https://app.fitchconnect.com/search/research/article/PR_10120093 … pic.twitter.com/cZwvnp2FwT
Don‘t miss our new @welt Podcast #deffnerundzschäpitz. We talk w/the fabulous @mister__mario about the 3 factors for success & wealth in life. And the biggest mistake people make. https://www.instagram.com/p/B_ie_OJqymd/?igshid=6mz3p50aenz …
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Holger Zschäpitz
Don‘t miss our new @welt Podcast #deffnerundzschäpitz. We talk w/the fabulous @mister.mario about the 3 factors for success & wealth in life. And the biggest mistake people make.
#Italy economy minister says Fitch downgrade to one notch above junk does not take account of #EU, #ECB decisions. The ECB is the largest creditor of Italy, has bought Italian bonds with a volume of almost €400bn. https://reut.rs/3aIyAad pic.twitter.com/Yn3Zc2mxdF
Reuters
Italy economy minister says Fitch downgrade does not take account of EU, ECB decisions
ROME (Reuters) - Fitch’s downgrade of Italy does not take proper account of the important economic decisions taken by the European Union and the European Central Bank, the Italian economy minister said.
Good morning from #Germany, where the housing boom continues despite corona crisis. Prices for condominiums have increased by 2.8 % in Q1 compared to prev quarter. For single & 2-family houses prices rose by 3.8%. After a 12mth period of stagnation, rents are also moving higher. pic.twitter.com/PLh1eVqWoZ
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Holger Zschaepitz
Good morning from #Germany, where the housing boom continues despite corona crisis. Prices for condominiums have increased by 2.8 % in Q1 compared to prev quarter. For single & 2-family houses prices rose by 3.8%. After a 12mth period of stagnation, rents…
Global stocks rise ahead of Fed & ECB decisions as econs around world slowly re-open and on pos earnings surprises. Alphabet soars after revenue tops estimates. Oil rallies w/WTI at $13.70/bbl on hopes demand will pick up. Bonds unch w/US 10y at 0.61%. Gold $1711, Bitcoin $7.9k. pic.twitter.com/f4g7x4dx1S
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Holger Zschaepitz
Global stocks rise ahead of Fed & ECB decisions as econs around world slowly re-open and on pos earnings surprises. Alphabet soars after revenue tops estimates. Oil rallies w/WTI at $13.70/bbl on hopes demand will pick up. Bonds unch w/US 10y at 0.61%. Gold…
#Italy 10y risk spread over Germany jumps by 10bps after Fitch has downgraded Italy to BBB-, one notch above junk. pic.twitter.com/JIBzRG3Png
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Holger Zschaepitz
#Italy 10y risk spread over Germany jumps by 10bps after Fitch has downgraded Italy to BBB-, one notch above junk.
Big Tech has become too big to fail, thanks to #coronavirus. #Amazon has been an essential service keeping households supplied during the pandemic. Alliance between #Apple and Alphabet’s #Google on contact tracing is seen as key to reopening economies. https://www.breakingviews.com/considered-view/big-tech-will-emerge-from-virus-too-big-to-fail/ … pic.twitter.com/fPLKtPdECx
breakingviews.com
Big Tech will emerge from virus too big to fail
Amazon is an essential service keeping families supplied in a pandemic. The Apple-Google alliance on contact tracing will aid efforts to reopen economies. Facebook’s reach has disrupted virus disinformation. Their size is an asset in a crisis, making it harder…
The rise and fall of the Fear Index VIX overlapped neatly w/ rise and fall in the number of countries w/a daily growth rate of cases of 5% or more. The virus peaked at month ago and the worst is behind us in markets, DB says. pic.twitter.com/j87Rt8vtQV
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Holger Zschaepitz
The rise and fall of the Fear Index VIX overlapped neatly w/ rise and fall in the number of countries w/a daily growth rate of cases of 5% or more. The virus peaked at month ago and the worst is behind us in markets, DB says.
Buyback frenzy of recent decades will not return soon as hit to revenues limit ability to buy back but also b/c buybacks may become socially unacceptable, Bernstein says. Corp buyers have been prim source of demand for equities, so valuations unlikely to return to pre-cris levels pic.twitter.com/UUdpOqJeAk
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Holger Zschaepitz
Buyback frenzy of recent decades will not return soon as hit to revenues limit ability to buy back but also b/c buybacks may become socially unacceptable, Bernstein says. Corp buyers have been prim source of demand for equities, so valuations unlikely to…
#Germany's Apr inflation drops to +0.8% YoY from 1.4%; vs +0.5% YoY expected. pic.twitter.com/2p3kfYGL4K
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Holger Zschaepitz
#Germany's Apr inflation drops to +0.8% YoY from 1.4%; vs +0.5% YoY expected.
The US economy shrank at a 4.8% annual rate in the first quarter, its biggest contraction since the recession a decade ago, signalling the start of recession. pic.twitter.com/fHHIMyrs7B
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Holger Zschaepitz
The US economy shrank at a 4.8% annual rate in the first quarter, its biggest contraction since the recession a decade ago, signalling the start of recession.
In case you missed it: #Fed holds rates including IOER. pic.twitter.com/KmSFLmpe9q
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Holger Zschaepitz
In case you missed it: #Fed holds rates including IOER.
Stocks jump almost 3%, putting S&P 500 on track for its best month since 1974, on hopes for coronavirus drug and as Fed pledges lasting support for the economy. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/28/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html … pic.twitter.com/pUKRkrnCQ7
CNBC
Stocks jump 2%, putting the S&P 500 on track for its best month since 1974
Stocks jumped on positive data from a potential coronavirus treatment from Gilead Sciences while investors digested a sharp drop in U.S. economic activity.
Ouch! Boeing rating cut to BBB- (one notch above Jun) from BBB by S&P, outlook stable. pic.twitter.com/9vcFEC8PC6
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Holger Zschaepitz
Ouch! Boeing rating cut to BBB- (one notch above Jun) from BBB by S&P, outlook stable.
Biggest Banks set aside $66bn to handle bad loans. U.S. banks set aside much more for doubtful loans than European peers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-29/biggest-banks-set-aside-66-billion-as-virus-fallout-hits-loans?sref=61mHmpU4 … pic.twitter.com/tKobQmuLOX
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-29/biggest-banks-set-aside-66-billion-as-virus-fallout-hits-loans?sref=61mHmpU4 … pic.twitter.com/tKobQmuLOX
Bloomberg.com
Biggest Banks Set Aside $66 Billion to Handle Bad Loans
The world’s biggest banks have set aside $66 billion so far this quarter for an expected increase in bad loans as lockdowns to combat the spread of the coronavirus raise the specter of large-scale corporate defaults.
Good Morning from Germany where passion for cash cools on hygiene fears in virus era. Supermarket chain Edeka says noncash purchases up 30% in recent wks. At newsstands—where typical transaction is just few euros & cash has been king—card purchases up 40%. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-30/card-payments-are-up-in-germany-amid-coronavirus?sref=61mHmpU4 … pic.twitter.com/xXxoWK23Ej
Bloomberg.com
Germany’s Passion for Cash Cools on Hygiene Fears in Virus Era
Card payments are up as consumers fret about handling grubby bills.
Global stock mkts rally w/Nikkei almost 3% higher on COVID-19 treatment hopes and positive earnings surprises from US tech comps. Euro at $1.0866 in limbo ahead of ECB meeting. Bonds unch w/US 10y at 0.61%. Gold $1716, #Bitcoin tops $9k for 1st time since March amid halving hype. pic.twitter.com/O0DQWAlW0o
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Holger Zschaepitz
Global stock mkts rally w/Nikkei almost 3% higher on COVID-19 treatment hopes and positive earnings surprises from US tech comps. Euro at $1.0866 in limbo ahead of ECB meeting. Bonds unch w/US 10y at 0.61%. Gold $1716, #Bitcoin tops $9k for 1st time since…