🇲🇽 CARTEL - WHAT TO EXPECT NOW!?

After the Mexican government took out CJNG boss “El Mencho”, there was a wave of violence and uncertainty about what would happen next.

Now everything is clear:

1) Why the violence happened

Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“Mencho”) was captured alive, then flown to Mexico City for medical treatment. He died en route from wounds sustained during the arrest.

Unaware of his death, the cartel demanded that the forces who captured him surrender and release Mencho. This triggered the initial violent reaction.

They went out to blackmail the government with violence.

2) Why the violence stopped

The government deployed the army and fought back effectively, but that alone doesn’t fully explain the complete halt of the violence. The cartel could still have continued ambushes, drone attacks, kidnappings, etc. to pressure the government.

The violence stopped because there was no longer any incentive to fight. Mencho was dead. There was nothing to gain and everything to lose. So no reason to fight and die for nothing.

3) What’s next?

The cartel now has a new boss with a clear incentive: make money and run a smooth operation.

He has zero reason to confront the government. Any escalation would invite a violent response that could destroy the already weakened cartel before he fully consolidates control. Especially after the government mobilized and deployed the army on the region.

The new boss will focus on keeping cash flowing, maintaining the organization’s unity, and preventing splinter-rival cartels from forming during this vulnerable period.

-> In short, the conflict is over. The cartel will now prioritise earning money and holding power in the region.

🔗

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