Russia is winning the economic war and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops from Ukraine.

From The Guardian:

The sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort.

When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.

When the global movers and shakers met in Davos last week, the public message was condemnation of Russian aggression and renewed commitment to stand solidly behind Ukraine. But privately, there was concern about the economic costs of a prolonged war.

These concerns are entirely justified. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given an added boost to already strong price pressures. As a result of the war, western economies face a period of slow or negative growth and rising inflation – a return to the stagflation of the 1970s.

From the start, the Russian president has been playing a long game, waiting for the international coalition against him to fragment. The Kremlin thinks Russia’s threshold for economic pain is higher than the west’s, and it is probably right about that.

If proof were needed that sanctions are not working, then President Joe Biden’s decision to supply Ukraine with advanced rocket systems provides it. The hope is that modern military technology from the US will achieve what energy bans and the seizure of Russian assets have so far failed to do: force Putin to withdraw his troops.

Putin is not going to surrender unconditionally, and the potential for severe collateral damage from the economic war is obvious: falling living standards in developed countries; famine, food riots and a debt crisis in the developing world.

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Russia now controls 20% of Ukrainian territory, which also happens to be the country’s most economically viable land.

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Hillary Clinton: Putin has messianic belief in himself and aims to restore the Russian empire.

Speaking to an audience at the Hay Festival, Clinton said that she had witnessed Putin’s “almost messianic belief in himself and what he was destined to be” as well of his “goal of restoring imperial Russia” while working with him. This had prompted her to write memos warning he would become a “threat to Europe and the rest of the world.”

Clinton called for the creation of a tribunal similar to those held after the Balkan wars and Rwandan genocide to hold individual Russians accountable for their war crimes, though she acknowledged that it was “always difficult to go after a head of state” unless they were deposed.

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There’s no way the Ukrainians will ever have enough combat power to destroy, defeat or kick the Russians out of Ukraine, says Lt. Gen. Twitty — the former deputy commander of the U.S. European Command.

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❗️Putin warns U.S. against supplying Ukraine longer range missiles.

If longer-range missiles are supplied, "we will strike targets which we have not yet been hitting," Putin said in an interview, likely referring to command centers in Kiev and beyond.

Putin noted that the range of the HIMARS systems depends on the munitions supplied and that, so far, the announced U.S. missiles do not pose a serious threat because their striking distance is around the same as Soviet-made systems that Ukraine already had.

According to Putin, while Western arms supplies are designed to drag out the conflict, they will not be able to change the outcome.

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Medvedev: Ukraine risks losing its sovereignty if it continues refusing to negotiate on Moscow’s terms.

Russia’s ex-president and deputy chairman of the Security Council also advised authorities in Kiev to cut back on cocaine use and approach key decisions with a sober mind.

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European shipping firms ‘making a mockery’ of Russia sanctions as oil cargos double.

From The Independent:

European companies have almost doubled their shipments of Russian oil since February, despite desperate efforts by EU leaders to squeeze the Kremlin by blocking Russia’s exports from global markets.

Europe’s three major shipping countries – Greece, Cyprus and Malta – have rapidly increased the amount of Russian oil they were transporting each month since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Despite the European Commission announcing plans to ban seaborne imports of Russian crude into the trading bloc, Russian oil will continue to flow into Europe via a pipeline through Hungary, and after lobbying from shipping interests in Greece, Malta and Cyprus, EU-registered boats and companies will be allowed to continue moving oil from Russian ports to non-EU countries.

That means EU companies can continue to profit from facilitating transfers of Russian oil to countries such as India and China, which have proved to be willing buyers for the crude oil that Europe no longer wants.

As oil prices have risen sharply, the Russian government has seen a huge boost to its finances and is on track to receive an unprecedented $250bn inflow of cash this year.

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Mexican president undermines the U.S. in the Western Hemisphere with Summit of the Americas boycott.

From CNN:

Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador said Monday he won't be attending the Summit of the Americas, hosted later on this week by the United States, due to the exclusion of Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela.

"I am not going to the summit because not all American countries are invited and I believe the need to change the policy that has been in place for centuries: The exclusion, the desire to dominate without any reason, the disrespect of countries' sovereignty (and) the independence of each country," President López Obrador said at a news conference in Mexico City.

Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela were not invited to the summit because of the "lack of democratic space and the human rights situations" in the countries, a senior Biden administration official said in a statement to CNN on Monday.

The move is a significant snub to President Joe Biden and his administration and threatens to undermine the gathering.

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❗️Ukraine has missed the opportunity to negotiate the return of the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions. Moscow will now treat them as Crimea, DPR and LPR in any future peace arrangement with Kiev — Russian paper citing a high-ranking source.

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Medvedev calls Russia’s enemies ‘bastards and degenerates,’ vows to ‘make them disappear.’

Russia’s ex-President and deputy chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev lashed out at his country’s enemies in a Telegram post on Tuesday:

“I hate them. They’re bastards and degenerates. They want death to Russia. And for as long as I am alive, I will do everything to make them disappear.”

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Metropolitan Hilarion (Alfeyev), one of the most prominent figures in the Russian Orthodox Church, dismissed from influential “foreign minister” role as head of the External Relations Department.

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Wages in Ukraine have dropped by an average of 25-50% from their pre-war levels, according to a report published by the Ukrainian central bank.

Amid soaring inflation, Ukraine hiked its interest rate to 25% on June 2.

The World Bank predicts that Ukraine's economy could shrink by as much as 45% this year.

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❗️Russia-installed Melitopol mayor (Ukraine’s Zaporozhye region) announces preparations for secession referendum after meeting with top Kremlin official.

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South African MP blames U.S. meddling and Ukrainian foolishness for the conflict with RussIa.

Member of the South African Parliament Shaik Emam accused the United States of causing the Ukraine conflict, and called out Western hypocrisy and double standards during a fiery parliamentary debate back in March.

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The war in Ukraine presents the West with a “historic chance” to defeat Russia, says the country’s ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko.

In an interview with The Guardian, Ukraine's ex-Prime Minister and leader of the 2004 pro-West Orange Revolution accused Russia of conducting a “genocide against the Ukrainian nation,” and described Putin as “absolutely rational, cold, cruel, and evil.”

“He acts according to his own dark logic,” Tymoshenko said of the Russian president. “He’s driven by this idea of a historic mission and wants to recreate an empire. That’s his main goal. It comes from a deep inner desire and belief.”

Tymoshenko characterized the war as “a great battle for our territory and our freedom,” and called it “a historic chance for the free world to kill this evil.”

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Unfortunately, left unmentioned by The Guardian was Tymoshenko's 2014 'Nuland' moment — a leaked phone conversation between her and a top security official where she called for the killing of 8 million Russians residing in Ukraine.

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Ukraine preparing ban on classic Russian literature, officials say.

Ukraine is working on regulatory measures that would enable the removal of over 100 million Russian literature books, including the works of Pushkin and Dostoyevsky, from the country's public schools and libraries, said Oleksandra Koval — the head of the Ukrainian Book Institute (a subsidiary of the Ministry of Culture).

According to Koval, Russian poets and writers such as Alexander Pushkin and Fyodor Dostoevsky laid the foundation for the Russian world and Russian messianism. "This is very harmful literature that can influence people's views," she emphasized.

Koval's comments were later reinforced by Ukraine's Deputy Minister of Education and Science, Andrii Vitrenko, who went on to say that any literature that "praises the orc army" will disappear from the country's education programs. Vitrenko then cited Leo Tolstoy's "War and Peace" as one example.

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Putin acknowledges mission to ‘take back’ Russian lands, draws parallels to Peter the Great.

During opening remarks at a meeting with young entrepreneurs, engineers, and scientists on Thursday, the Russian president unexpectedly delved into geopolitics, speaking of Russia’s place in a rapidly changing world.

According to Vladimir Putin, the world has always been divided into sovereign states and colonies, with no in-between. The colonies, he argued, have no historical prospects or chances of survival in the arduous and never-ending geopolitical struggle.

In Putin's view, Russia has always remained at the forefront of global transformations and, even in periods of retreat, gathered its strengths for a new advance forward.

Perhaps the most significant part of Putin's comments came when he drew parallels with Tsar Peter the Great, saying that today's Russia, just like in the times of Peter I, is on a historic quest to “take back and strengthen” its lands.

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Assad: Russia is fighting to secure an international equilibrium that the West seeks to upend.

The West’s war against Russia has been ongoing since before World War I because Russia plays a vital role in ensuring the existence of an international balance of power, says Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad.

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