Kissinger: The West should push Ukraine to negotiate with and cede territory to Russia.

Speaking at the World Economic Forum in Davos, the former U.S. Secretary of State warned that attempts to inflict a crushing defeat on Russian forces in Ukraine will have disastrous consequences for the long-term stability of Europe.

After saying that Western countries should remember Russia’s importance to Europe and not get swept up “in the mood of the moment,” Kissinger also pushed for the West to force Ukraine into accepting negotiations.

Attempts to retake occupied territory from Russia “would not be about the freedom of Ukraine, but a new war against Russia itself,” the veteran statesman noted.

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❗️Hungary’s Orban declares state of emergency, says world is on the brink of an economic crisis.

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Americans are growing less supportive of the anti-Russia sanctions as the U.S. economy falters, a new AP poll finds.

From AP News:

Now 45% of U.S. adults say the nation’s bigger priority should be sanctioning Russia as effectively as possible, while slightly more — 51% — say it should be limiting damage to the U.S. economy.

In April, those figures were exactly reversed. In March, shortly after Russia attacked Ukraine, a clear majority — 55% — said the bigger priority should be sanctioning Russia as effectively as possible.

The shifts in opinion reflect how rising prices are biting into American households — surging costs for gas, groceries, and other commodities have strained budgets for millions of people — and perhaps limiting their willingness to support Ukraine financially.

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Somewhere in California.
“Viva a Rusia! Viva a México!”

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❗️Zelensky urges West to speed up heavy weapons deliveries and declares intention to take back all of Ukraine, including Crimea.

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YouTube has reportedly taken down a full-length version of the leaked phone call between Victoria Nuland and Geoffrey Pyatt that implicated US involvement in the events of 2014.

Other versions still remain on YouTube, and a full audio file can be found here.

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Is Russia causing a global food crisis?

Reports in the Guardian, Associated Press, and elsewhere claim that Russia is blockading shipping vessels in Ukrainian ports, preventing the export of grain amid a worsening global food crisis. The Washington Post has published “declassified US intelligence” to back these assertions, including heatmaps which show concentrations of Russian navy ships in the Black Sea, purportedly endangering shipping lanes. In a more recent article, the WaPo suggests that the US should intervene to end the alleged blockade. What’s going on?

According to the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the Russian Federation has initiated attempts to establish corridors for the safe evacuation of civilian vessels. In Mariupol, officials report that the first cargo ships will be leaving in the coming days. Safety risks remain in other areas, however, as the IMO reports on sea mines threatening movement at this time. Local authorities in Ukrainian-controlled ports have also raised their maritime security (MARSEC) to level 3, preventing entry and exit.

The IMO writes:

“Ukraine also provided their preconditions for the safe evacuation of ships from their ports. These include an end to hostilities, the withdrawal of troops and ensuring the freedom of navigation in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, including carrying out mine-sweeping activities with the involvement of Black Sea littoral states.”

For more information, check out Moon of Alabama's analysis from May 21: https://www.moonofalabama.org/2022/05/no-the-ukraine-war-has-not-stoked-a-global-food-crisis.html#more

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❗️Biden: U.S. will not send Ukraine rocket systems that can reach Russia.

From Reuters:

The Ukrainian government has urged the West to provide it with more longer-range weapons in order to turn the tide in the war.

CNN and The Washington Post reported on Friday the Biden administration was leaning towards sending the MLRS and another system, the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, known as HIMARS, as part of an upcoming military aid package.

The MLRS was under consideration, but nothing with long-range strike capabilities outside of battlefield use, a senior administration official said.

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Russia withdraws from a 1998 Memorandum of Understanding with the U.S. on the Principles of Cooperation in the Fields of Culture, the Humanities, the Social Sciences, Education, and the Mass Media.

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Military victory against Russia “unlikely” without MLRS long-range artillery from the U.S. and others, Ukraine official tells CNN.

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Global poll finds many countries maintain positive views of Russia.

From The Guardian:

The sharp polarisation between mainly western liberal democracies and the rest of the world in perceptions of Russia has been laid bare in an annual global poll of attitudes towards democracy.

The annual Democracy Perception Index, carried out after the invasion of Ukraine, covers 52 highly populated countries in Asia, Latin America, the US and Europe.

Majorities in a total of 20 countries thought economic ties with Russia should not be cut due to the war in Ukraine. By contrast, among the 31 countries that favoured cutting ties, 20 were in Europe.

The countries with a widely held most negative view of Russia included Poland (net negative 87%), Ukraine (80%), Portugal (79%), Italy (65%), UK (65%), Sweden (77%), US (62%) and Germany (62%).

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Scott Ritter: Russia will suffer a strategic and humiliating defeat in Ukraine unless it expands its military operation beyond the Donbas and removes the Zelensky government from power.

Vladimir Putin’s stated goals of demilitarizing and denazifying Ukraine are unattainable without a third phase of the military operation, Ritter argues.

The “Nazification” of Ukrainian political life has expanded exponentially since Russia’s invasion, making denazification impossible to achieve without a new political leadership in Kiev that will aggressively pursue the eradication of neo-Nazi ideology in Ukraine.

Furthermore, massive military aid from the U.S. and NATO has enabled Ukraine to reconstitute combat power, which had been previously destroyed by Russian forces. Hence, meaningful demilitarization will also require a new political and military leadership in Kiev or Russia’s full control over Ukraine’s western borders.

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UPDATE: Turkey's Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu says that one of the obstacles that prevent grain-carrying ships from leaving the war zone are mines placed in the sea by Ukraine in the Odessa region, some of which have floated into Turkish territorial waters.

Biden: We do not want to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia, but the U.S. will help Ukraine be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.

President Biden outlined what America will and will not do in Ukraine in an op-ed for The New York Times. Here are the highlights:

— America’s goal is straightforward: We want to see a democratic, independent, sovereign and prosperous Ukraine with the means to deter and defend itself against further aggression.

— We have moved quickly to send Ukraine a significant amount of weaponry and ammunition so it can fight on the battlefield and be in the strongest possible position at the negotiating table.

— We will provide the Ukrainians with more advanced rocket systems and munitions.

— We will send billions more in financial assistance.

— We will continue to work to strengthen Ukraine and support its efforts to achieve a negotiated end to the conflict.

— We will continue cooperating with our allies and partners on Russian sanctions.

— We will help our European allies and others reduce their dependence on Russian fossil fuels.

— We will not be directly engaged in this conflict, either by sending American troops to fight in Ukraine or by attacking Russian forces.

— We are not encouraging or enabling Ukraine to strike beyond its borders.

— We do not want to prolong the war just to inflict pain on Russia.

— The United States will not try to bring about the ouster of Mr. Putin in Moscow.

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Russia is winning the economic war and Putin is no closer to withdrawing troops from Ukraine.

From The Guardian:

The sanctions have had the perverse effect of driving up the cost of Russia’s oil and gas exports, massively boosting its trade balance and financing its war effort.

When the EU announced its partial ban on Russian oil exports earlier this week, the cost of crude oil on the global markets rose, providing the Kremlin with another financial windfall. Russia is finding no difficulty finding alternative markets for its energy, with exports of oil and gas to China in April up more than 50% year on year.

When the global movers and shakers met in Davos last week, the public message was condemnation of Russian aggression and renewed commitment to stand solidly behind Ukraine. But privately, there was concern about the economic costs of a prolonged war.

These concerns are entirely justified. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has given an added boost to already strong price pressures. As a result of the war, western economies face a period of slow or negative growth and rising inflation – a return to the stagflation of the 1970s.

From the start, the Russian president has been playing a long game, waiting for the international coalition against him to fragment. The Kremlin thinks Russia’s threshold for economic pain is higher than the west’s, and it is probably right about that.

If proof were needed that sanctions are not working, then President Joe Biden’s decision to supply Ukraine with advanced rocket systems provides it. The hope is that modern military technology from the US will achieve what energy bans and the seizure of Russian assets have so far failed to do: force Putin to withdraw his troops.

Putin is not going to surrender unconditionally, and the potential for severe collateral damage from the economic war is obvious: falling living standards in developed countries; famine, food riots and a debt crisis in the developing world.

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Russia now controls 20% of Ukrainian territory, which also happens to be the country’s most economically viable land.

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Hillary Clinton: Putin has messianic belief in himself and aims to restore the Russian empire.

Speaking to an audience at the Hay Festival, Clinton said that she had witnessed Putin’s “almost messianic belief in himself and what he was destined to be” as well of his “goal of restoring imperial Russia” while working with him. This had prompted her to write memos warning he would become a “threat to Europe and the rest of the world.”

Clinton called for the creation of a tribunal similar to those held after the Balkan wars and Rwandan genocide to hold individual Russians accountable for their war crimes, though she acknowledged that it was “always difficult to go after a head of state” unless they were deposed.

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There’s no way the Ukrainians will ever have enough combat power to destroy, defeat or kick the Russians out of Ukraine, says Lt. Gen. Twitty — the former deputy commander of the U.S. European Command.

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❗️Putin warns U.S. against supplying Ukraine longer range missiles.

If longer-range missiles are supplied, "we will strike targets which we have not yet been hitting," Putin said in an interview, likely referring to command centers in Kiev and beyond.

Putin noted that the range of the HIMARS systems depends on the munitions supplied and that, so far, the announced U.S. missiles do not pose a serious threat because their striking distance is around the same as Soviet-made systems that Ukraine already had.

According to Putin, while Western arms supplies are designed to drag out the conflict, they will not be able to change the outcome.

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