❗️Zelensky: Russia will either negotiate to end the war on Ukraine’s terms or forever disappear from the world stage.

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❗️Ukraine sinks Russian Cruiser Moskva with a missile strike, according to multiple reports.

The Russian MoD has thus far only confirmed that the cruiser sustained serious damage due to a fire and ammunition explosions.

Moskva is the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet with a crew of 510. The ship’s destruction could mean the worst mass casualty producing event of the war so far.

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I believe the war is about to heat up, for four reasons:

1) The siege of Mariupol is almost over; its end will free up a ton of Russian & Donbass troops for other major operations.

2) Strategic bombers of the Russian Aerospace Forces have reportedly been put on high alert.

3) The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has announced that NATO vehicles transporting weapons for Ukraine are considered legitimate military targets.

4) The Russian Ministry of Defense has threatened to bomb "decision-making centers" in Ukraine, including Kiev, if the Ukrainians fire at Russian territory again.

Via: https://t.iss.one/RWApodcast/98

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“It feels like the situation is escalating — or perhaps degrading — to the point where Moscow needs to decide if it is prepared to wage a nuclear war over Ukraine.”

— Artyom Lukin
International Relations Scholar
Far Eastern Federal University

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“This is one of the most powerful warships in the world. No way will Turkey allow one of the remaining two ‘Slava’-class cruisers into the Black Sea to replace ‘Moskva.’ Russia lost half its naval firepower off Ukraine and can’t restore it without going to war with NATO.”

— David Axe
Journalist at Forbes

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❗️Trump joins Biden in labeling the Ukraine conflict “a genocide.”

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❗️Ukraine vows a strong response if Russia hits decision-making centers in Kiev.

"We have excellent capabilities to strike Russia," warns Zelensky’s adviser Alexey Arestovych.

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❗️Biden administration moves to provide Ukraine with capability to target Russian forces in Crimea and Donbas, WSJ reveals.

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❗️Russia’s Investigative Committee says Klimovo was attacked from two helicopters that entered Russian airspace at low altitude and carried out at least six air strikes on a residential area.

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❗️Another attack with civilian casualties is being reported in Zhuravlevka by the governor of Russia’s Belgorod Oblast.

Earlier today we saw reports of Ukrainian strikes on civilian targets in Bryansk Oblast.

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❗️Joe Biden says he’s ready to visit Ukraine.

According to an earlier Politico report, the Biden administration is holding internal discussions about sending a high-level official — possibly President Biden or Vice President Harris — to Kyiv to show further support to Ukraine.

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❗️Russian MoD confirms sinking of Black Sea flagship Moskva.

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Opinion: Missile? Fire? Either way, a stricken ship speaks to Russian incompetence, a Western official says.

Per the New York Times:

A senior Western official on Thursday could not confirm that the Russian Black Sea flagship had been hit by a Ukrainian missile, as the Ukrainians say, or was badly damaged in an accidental fire, as the Russians say. But the official said that either version displayed significant Russian incompetence.

Given the importance of the cruiser, the Moskva, it is almost impossible to believe that a fire would be allowed to reach the ammunition magazine without extraordinary failures on the part of the crew, the official said.

And if it were a Ukrainian cruise missile that hit the ship, as seems credible, that displays almost more incompetence and carelessness, given that the Moskva was equipped with a sophisticated, three-layer defense against a missile strike.

However it happened, so much damage to such an important ship is a deep embarrassment to the Russian Navy and will do much to boost Ukrainian morale as a bigger fight looms in the Donbas. It will also make it harder for Russia to resupply its forces from the sea or to provide artillery cover for them, the official said.

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Opinion: Loss of flagship Moskva does not make Russia more vulnerable to air attack.

Analysis by US veteran Tyler Weaver:

Apparently people think without the Moskva the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be vulnerable to air attack. Yeah no, they have seven air defense frigates.

Specifically they have three Admiral Grigorovich-class frigates, three frigate-like Project 22160-class patrol ships, and a very frigate-like Steregushchiy-class corvette.

Unlike the Soviet-era Moskva, these are new-construction ships with completely modern fire control and air defense systems. The Grigorovich and 22160-class ships mount a naval version of the SA-17 Buk, and the Steregushchiy-class has an S-350 VLS launcher.

While the Buk system is somewhat shorter-ranged (50 vs. 90km) than the naval S-300 system on the Moskva, this is a matter of degree rather than character.

The Russians also have fighter aircraft and land-based SAMs to defend the Crimea and provide air cover to their fleet.

Given the severely degraded state of the Ukrainian Air Force there is basically no risk of air attack regardless.

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There are fake reports going around claiming that this video shows US Army Major General Roger L. Cloutier Jr. in Russian FSB custody after being captured in Mariupol.

In reality, the source of the video is an April 7 news story about the detention of a Ukrainian fighter who tried to sneak into Crimea under the guise of a refugee.

To date, there have been no credible reports suggesting that a senior US military officer is in Mariupol or has let alone been captured.

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❗️Pentagon: We have not seen any Russian efforts to disrupt our daily weapon supply flows into Ukraine, so we’re just going to keep doing it.

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❗️Russia warns US of ‘unpredictable consequences’ if the arming of Ukraine continues.

As reported by the Washington Post:

Russia this week sent a formal diplomatic note to the United States warning that U.S. and NATO shipments of the “most sensitive” weapons systems to Ukraine were “adding fuel” to the conflict there and could bring “unpredictable consequences.”

The diplomatic démarche, a copy of which was reviewed by The Washington Post, came as President Biden approved a dramatic expansion in the scope of weapons being provided to Ukraine, an $800 million package including 155 mm howitzers — a serious upgrade in long-range artillery to match Russian systems — coastal defense drones and armored vehicles, as well as additional portable antiaircraft and antitank weapons and millions of rounds of ammunition.

Russia experts suggested that Moscow, which has labeled weapons convoys coming into the country as legitimate military targets but has not thus far attacked them, may be preparing to do so.

“They have targeted supply depots in Ukraine itself, where some of these supplies have been stored,” said George Beebe, former director of Russia analysis at the CIA and Russia adviser to former vice president Dick Cheney. “The real question is do they go beyond attempting to target [the weapons] on Ukrainian territory, try to hit the supply convoys themselves and perhaps the NATO countries on the Ukrainian periphery” that serve as transfer points for the U.S. supplies.

If Russian forces stumble in the next phase of the war as they did in the first, “then I think the chances that Russia targets NATO supplies on NATO territory go up considerably,” Beebe said. “There has been an assumption on the part of a lot of us in the West that we could supply the Ukrainians really without limits and not bear significant risk of retaliation from Russia,” he said. “I think the Russians want to send a message here that that’s not true.”

Andrew Weiss, a former National Security Council director for Russian, Ukrainian and Eurasian affairs, and now vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, recalled that Russian President Vladimir Putin, in a speech on the February morning that the invasion began, warned that Western nations would face “consequences greater than any you have faced in history” if they became involved in the conflict.

Attention at the time focused on Putin’s reminder that Russia possesses a powerful nuclear arsenal, Weiss said, but it was also “a very explicit warning about not sending weapons into a conflict zone.” Having drawn a red line, he asked, are the Russians “now inclined to back that up?”

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Zelensky asks Biden to designate Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, one of the most powerful and far-reaching sanctions in the US arsenal.

The Washington Post reports that Zelensky’s request came during a recent phone call with Biden.

Such a measure could have a range of impacts, including the imposition of economic penalties on dozens of other nations that continue to do business with Russia.

“Adding Russia to the state sponsors of terrorism list would be the nuclear economic option,” Jason Blazakis, a former State Department official and expert on terrorism designations, wrote in a recent essay.

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