— 🇮🇷 A message from an Iranian soldier stationed on one of Iran’s islands in the Persian Gulf:

‘Tell the Iranian people that we have come here to die. If the American enemy sets foot on this pure island, we will fight with everything we have.

Politics and negotiation are not important to us, we know only one thing and that is sacrifice, sacrifice for Iran and the Iranian people.

The conditions here are a little difficult, especially now that temperatures have gone up and at night we are lonely and away from our family and these bombs that are eating away at us, but we still remember the scene of the martyrdom of thousands of our compatriots.

We will protect this land with tooth and nail. We will sacrifice our lives for you.’

(Credit to Iranian Militarism)

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 President Trump: ‘The agreement will likely be signed in the weekend, somewhere in Europe, and J.D. Vance will be in attendance’

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman, Ismael Baqaei:

‘The matters raised about the agreement are only speculation, and nothing has been finalized.

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is more insecure due to U.S. actions.

So far, Iran has not reached a final conclusion about the agreement’

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇮🇷 NEW: Explosions heard in Sirik, southern Iran

Some say it’s possibly related to the launch of anti-ship missiles or drones towards the Strait of Hormuz.

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇮🇷 NEW: Air defenses have been activated in Khorammabad

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 UPDATE: Iran launched projectiles at vessels attempting to illegally pass through the Strait of Hormuz with U.S. guidance

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇦🇪/🇮🇷 NEW: An American F-35 squawked 7700 general emergency code in the UAE

@Middle_East_Spectator

Landed now, the emergency happened shortly after takeoff.

I don’t think it’s related to any anti-aircraft fire from Iran, the distance is too big. Likely a mechanical issue.

—❗️🇮🇷 NEW: Two explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas

@Middle_East_Spectator

Again related to the Strait of Hormuz.

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: President Trump has agreed to let Iran dilute its uranium stockpile inside Iran, instead of transporting it outside the country – Axios

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 President Trump on Truth Social:

‘The terms that Iran leaked out to the Fake News have NOTHING to do with the terms that were agreed to, in writing.

What they said, including their weak and pathetic statement on having a deal, bears no relation to the truth.

Very dishonorable people to deal with. With them, there is no such thing as dealing in good faith. AMAZING!

Also, their totally rebuffed drone attack last night against Indian ships leaving the Hormuz Strait is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE! They better get their act together, and fast!’

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 Iran’s Foreign Minister, Abbas Araqchi:

‘The Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding has never been closer. Pending its finalization, the media should refrain from entering speculation about its content.

In line with our responsible and transparent approach, all details will be shared with the public in due course.’

@Middle_East_Spectator

They’re gonna make a deal.

Shame. America will never abide.

Let’s hope the terms are good at least.

— One of the worst parts of this, is that Iran’s Parliament is closed due to the war. So the Parliament cannot even voice its opposition to the MoU or draft a motion to dismiss it.

Similarly, many other important matters like leaving the NPT, officially establishing control over the Strait of Hormuz, or the impeachment of officials have not been brought to a vote due to Parliament being closed.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: J.D. Vance says Iran will receive no money or release of funds until it ‘meets its obligations’

@Middle_East_Spectator

— Most of all, I’m worried about the effects of a bad deal on the Islamic Republic’s core supporter base.

It risks alienating those who spent 100+ nights on the streets in support of their government and their leader.

I have much more to say, but all we can do now is wait to see if there will really be a deal, and what exactly are the terms. Although, in my opinion the terms are irrelevant because America will violate them no matter what.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: Trump reposts Araqchi

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇵🇰 BREAKING: Pakistan confirms that a final text for the MoU has been reached

@Middle_East_Spectator

— 🇺🇸/🇮🇷 The upcoming Iran-U.S. deal, what details will I be looking for?

1. Lebanon & Iran’s Frozen Assets

The primary issue between both sides in the past few weeks has consisted of two things:
1. A ceasefire in Lebanon
2. A partial release of Iran’s frozen assets up front.

If these two terms are included in the agreement, the U.S. would have compromised on them—if not, then Iran has compromised on them.

It also depends on the specifics of these terms. For example, will it be a true ceasefire in Lebanon—or will Israel be allowed to carry out limited strikes like in 2024-2025? Will Iran’s money be released immediately and unconditionally, or will it be released upon Iran’s agreement to certain other things? Will Iran be allowed to use the money in any way it wishes, or will it be limited to ‘humanitarian purposes’? These things all matter.

2. Management of the Strait of Hormuz

According to Iran’s SNSC, and per instruction of Iran’s Supreme Leader, the Strait of Hormuz must come under ‘new management’ in case of its reopening.

This ‘management’ consists of two main important parts:
1. Recognizing Iranian sovereignty over the waterway by using Iran’s designated maritime separation scheme and coordinating with the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) before crossing.
2. The collection of transit tolls or another type of fee.

For Iran, it is mostly important that the collection of tolls is mentioned in the MoU, as it will be a huge source of revenue. Without tolls, there is no real benefit in controlling the Strait of Hormuz other than it being a matter of national pride.

3. Reopening of the Strait of Hormuz & Lifting the U.S. Naval Blockade

Reopening the Strait and lifting the U.S. blockade are two matters that are separate from the issue of management.

For this part of the agreement to be beneficial to Iran, the U.S. should lift the blockade first, and then Iran opens the Strait of Hormuz (under its own management). At the very least, the two actions happen simultaneously. If the lifting of the U.S. blockade only happens afterward, or is conditional on certain Iranian steps to be taken, that would be very problematic.

4. Nuclear Matters

While nuclear matters won’t be settled in the MoU, Iran has reportedly agreed to ‘commit to discussing’ it eventually, and if that happens there are three main issues:

1. The fate of enrichment: Will Iran be allowed to enrich at low levels like 3.67% for its own fuel production? Or will there be a temporary enrichment ban?
2. The fate of the stockpile: Will it be transferred abroad or diluted domestically?
3. The fate of the nuclear sites: Will the U.S. demand the full dismantlement of these facilities?

For a deal to be positive to Iran, the minimum is for the uranium stockpile to remain inside Iran and to be gradually diluted in stages, in accordance with commitments kept by the Americans.
A small temporary enrichment suspension would be a loss of face for Iran in terms of national pride, but realistically it’s difficult to restart enrichment within the next few years anyway. As long as the suspension is short (3-5 years), then Iran has gotten a good deal on that aspect.

5. Sanctions Relief & Economic Support for Reconstruction

Perhaps most importantly for Iran, it matters what the MoU says about sanctions relief.
For Iran, there are four main important points:

1. Waivers on the sale of oil, which should happen immediately upon signing of the agreement.
2. All other U.S. economic sanctions, which should be lifted as part of Iran’s compromises on the nuclear program.
3. UN sanctions, which should also be lifted as part of Iran’s compromises on the nuclear program.
4. An economic reconstruction fund (reparations).

Points 1, 2 and 3 are very important and should be explicitly mentioned in the MoU. For point 4, it’s important that Iran gets to decide how to use this money (reportedly $300 Billion) and the U.S. doesn’t intervene with it.

@Middle_East_Spectator